Last Updated Mar 25, 2023, 9:20 AM
2023 Stanley Cup Betting Trends & Action Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
Stanley Cup betting trends might not be top of mind for most of you, with March Madness overwhelming the landscape. But pucks are going on, action is coming in, and Stanley Cup odds are accordingly on the move.
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, the Boston Bruins remain atop the odds to win the Stanley Cup. And the New York Rangers continue to shorten their price.
BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini offers his insights on 2022-23 Stanley Cup betting odds, trends and action. Check back all season long for updates.
2022-23 Stanley Cup Odds
New York's Time
On Feb. 9, three weeks ahead of the NHL's trade deadline, the New York Rangers decided to beat all comers to the punch. New York made a deal with the St. Louis Blues to acquire Vladimir Tarasenko, bolstering a Rangers team already in the thick of the Stanley Cup odds market.
On Feb. 28, with the March 3 deadline looming, the Rangers made another big move by acquiring Patrick Cane from the Chicago Blackhawks. Cipollini said there was no question which team made the biggest deadline splash.
"The Rangers, for sure. They've gotten the most new action from teams at the deadline, and the biggest change in price," Cipollini said. "They acquired two pretty big names in Tarasenko and Kane, dropping from from +2200 to +1100. The Bruins improved as well, although there's not much change in their odds or interest."
New York has actually fallen off just a tick, from +1100 to +1200. But the two big trades took a popular team and made it even more so with bettors.
"The Rangers are the book's biggest problem now. BetMGM has four times the liability on the Rangers vs. the next closest team, the Bruins," Cipollini said.
At 12/1, New York is the co-fifth choice with New Jersey Devils. As noted above, the Boson Bruins continue to lead the pack and in fact shortened from +450 to +400 after the trade deadline. The defending champion Colorado Avalanche are the +700 second choice, followed by the Carolina Hurricanes (+750) and Toronto Maple Leafs (+900).
Along with the Rangers, Cipollini pointed to two more squads getting bettors' attention over the past few weeks, even with short odds: the aforementioned Bruins and Avalanche.
"Bruins backers are starting to come alive. They're now an issue from a liability standpoint, and they are our most-bet-on team in tickets and money," Cipollini said. "And the Avs as well. They did this last year, where they started slow and then looked unbeatable toward the end of the season. It feels like it's happening again.
"Due to our Colorado market, the Avs always take a lot of money. But we're seeing it more from outside markets now during this stretch."
Entering a March 9 home game against Los Angeles, the Avalanche are on a 7-2-1 surge, a pretty quick way to rack up 15 points. That said, Colorado is actually seventh in the very competitive Western Conference standings, where the top eight teams are separated by just seven points.
Meanwhile, Boston continues to lap the league, already breaking the 100-point mark. Heading into a March 9 home tilt against Edmonton, the Bruins have 103 points and are riding a 10-game win streak.
Right above the Avs in the West is another team that's caught bettors' eyes and wallets: the Edmonton Oilers.
"I’ll throw a little Oilers love in here, too. Their record hasn’t been spectacular, but Connor McDavid won’t stop scoring, which is leading to bets," Cipollini said.
Edmonton is the +1300 co-seventh choice with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Cipollini also noted a couple of teams trending the wrong way, be it from lack of trade-deadline activity or just on-ice performance.
"The Pittsburgh Penguins didn’t do very much at the deadline, and they were a team that needed to. We dropped them from +2500 to +3500," he said. "You could maybe put the Florida Panthers in that category, but they may have realized becoming buyers wasn’t going to salvage this disaster of a season.
"You could also argue the Calgary Flames. They’ve dropped from +1400 early in the season to +5000 now. The team is in a bit of a freefall, so odds are moving more so from that than the lack of deadline moves."
Ticket Takers and Money Makers
There's no real surprise in Stanley Cup betting trends at BetMGM. As noted above, the favored Bruins lead in both tickets and money in the Stanley Cup odds market. Sitting at Nos. 2 and 3 in both tickets and money are, respectively, the Avalanche and the Rangers. BetMGM's risk room is pinning its hopes on pretty much one team, among the legit contenders.
"Hurricanes, Hurricanes, Hurricanes. Of teams that have a really good shot, they are taking by far the least amount of bets and are our best realistic winner," Cipollini said. "Outside of that, we would like the Lightning, Stars (+1400) and Wild (+2000). Anyone with odds longer than the Wild is a good outcome, as well."
And on the flip side, as Cipollini alluded to above: "The Rangers are by far the worst for us, then the Bruins, then the Avs. The Devils would be a small winner, same with the Leafs, Golden Knights (+1400) and Oilers."
Flying Under the Radar
Edmonton's McDavid is having a banner year, with 124 points on 54 goals and 70 assists – topping the NHL in all three categories. But Cipollini stills classifies the Oilers as under the radar at the moment.
"The Oilers have got this guy Connor McDavid, he's quite good," Cipollini said jokingly. "You're getting a pretty good price (13/1) to bet on the best player in the league. The Knights are in a similar boat and can definitely make a run. I don’t hate the Kraken at +4000, but they will have a tough path."
Seattle is fifth in the Western Conference, but sits as the 14th choice in Stanley Cup futures odds.