User ID
Password
  Forgot User ID
or Register Today!
VegasInsider.com
Follow Us on Facebook Follow Us on Twitter Follow Us on Google+ VI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto Racing
Horses
Boxing/MMA
More
Betting Tools

 
SBXLVII - Trend Report

New Sportsbook.ag customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.
Join Now

Already have an account? Click here to view new Exclusive Rewards!

Early Super Bowl Trends

The Super Bowl has been set for a few days now and the line is holding at San Francisco -3.5 for now. A small majority of the early money has come in supporting the Ravens here (66%) and there are many reasons why. Underdogs are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowls, winning five of them outright. The Ravens have gone through two of the all-time greats in Manning and Brady and have got to be confident heading into this game. With how well they are playing, it’s tough not to like taking the points here.

Here are a few more things to keep in mind about Baltimore for this game:
  • Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five Super Bowls
  • Super Bowl underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 7-2 ATS in their last nine opportunities.
  • No team (SF) has ever won the Super Bowl after losing by 28 points in the month of December
Fundamentally, the Ravens wily defense will have to come out and contain Kaepernick’s big play ability. Kaepernick is capable of the big play through the air or on the ground and Baltimore’s task over the next few weeks is to figure out how to negate those plays. However, as losing by 28 in the final month of the season suggests, there are plenty of ways to attack San Francisco’s own defense and Baltimore loves to take deep shots in their own right. A couple of deep connections could easily turn the tide of this game in Baltimore’s favor.

Advertisement
San Francisco always has a shot and as an organization they are a perfect 5-0 SU in Super Bowls. They are 4-1 ATS in those games and were listed as the favorite each time. Three of the five wins were blowouts as each time they had the far superior offense and could just turn games on their head with big plays. That’s how the 2012-13 49ers are built and they do not want to be known as the ones that gave this franchise their first Super Bowl loss.

Keep these in mind if you’re leaning on San Francisco winning
  • The NFC is 5-0 ATS in the last five Super Bowls and 14-7-2 ATS in the last 23 years
  • Favorites have won 31 of the 46 Super Bowls straight up.
  • Super Bowl favorites of 4 points or less that have gone on to win the game are 6-1-1 ATS (ie if San Fran wins, the spread likely won’t matter)
As for totals, the Super Bowl has generally been high scoring in recent years. If you take out the two Pats/Giants Super Bowls of recent memory, seven of the remaining eight contests had at least 45 points scored in them. The total for this game is a little higher than that but with Baltimore scoring 24 or more in four of their last five and San Fran reaching that mark in five of their last six, seeing points in this contest shouldn’t come as a big surprise.

Obviously it is still early in the research process of the Super Bowl, but even basic historic points like this are good starting points.

  
HEADLINES
Rogers: Home 'Dog Breakdown
Fisher: 2015 Playoff Surprises
SportsBoss: Turnover Analysis
SportsBoss: Win Projections
Nelson: NFC West Preview
Nelson: NFC South Preview
Falcons sign former Colts LB Angerer
Chargers, Woodhead agree to extension
Jags WR Sanders faces 4-game suspension
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
VegasInsider.com Gold Membership
2013 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 1340
Chip Chirimbes + 1286
The Gold Sheet + 1262
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
No Games Last Week  
   
   
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Joe Nelson 60 %
The SportsBoss 59 %
The Gold Sheet 59 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 805
The Gold Sheet + 713
Scott Pritchard + 615
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Dave Cokin + 400
Joe Williams + 324
Tony Stoffo + 203
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
ASA + 670
The SportsBoss + 385
Brian Edwards + 337
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!