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SBXLVII - Trend Report

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Early Super Bowl Trends

The Super Bowl has been set for a few days now and the line is holding at San Francisco -3.5 for now. A small majority of the early money has come in supporting the Ravens here (66%) and there are many reasons why. Underdogs are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowls, winning five of them outright. The Ravens have gone through two of the all-time greats in Manning and Brady and have got to be confident heading into this game. With how well they are playing, it’s tough not to like taking the points here.

Here are a few more things to keep in mind about Baltimore for this game:
  • Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five Super Bowls
  • Super Bowl underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 7-2 ATS in their last nine opportunities.
  • No team (SF) has ever won the Super Bowl after losing by 28 points in the month of December
Fundamentally, the Ravens wily defense will have to come out and contain Kaepernick’s big play ability. Kaepernick is capable of the big play through the air or on the ground and Baltimore’s task over the next few weeks is to figure out how to negate those plays. However, as losing by 28 in the final month of the season suggests, there are plenty of ways to attack San Francisco’s own defense and Baltimore loves to take deep shots in their own right. A couple of deep connections could easily turn the tide of this game in Baltimore’s favor.

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San Francisco always has a shot and as an organization they are a perfect 5-0 SU in Super Bowls. They are 4-1 ATS in those games and were listed as the favorite each time. Three of the five wins were blowouts as each time they had the far superior offense and could just turn games on their head with big plays. That’s how the 2012-13 49ers are built and they do not want to be known as the ones that gave this franchise their first Super Bowl loss.

Keep these in mind if you’re leaning on San Francisco winning
  • The NFC is 5-0 ATS in the last five Super Bowls and 14-7-2 ATS in the last 23 years
  • Favorites have won 31 of the 46 Super Bowls straight up.
  • Super Bowl favorites of 4 points or less that have gone on to win the game are 6-1-1 ATS (ie if San Fran wins, the spread likely won’t matter)
As for totals, the Super Bowl has generally been high scoring in recent years. If you take out the two Pats/Giants Super Bowls of recent memory, seven of the remaining eight contests had at least 45 points scored in them. The total for this game is a little higher than that but with Baltimore scoring 24 or more in four of their last five and San Fran reaching that mark in five of their last six, seeing points in this contest shouldn’t come as a big surprise.

Obviously it is still early in the research process of the Super Bowl, but even basic historic points like this are good starting points.

  
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