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Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Picks, Odds | NBA Playoffs Prediction

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

The 2024 NBA Playoffs continue with an excellent 3-game slate on Monday night -- and the first matchup of the evening we'll preview is Celtics vs. Heat Game 4, which is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Celtics are 10.5-point road favorites on the spread in Monday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 203 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about Game 4 of Celtics vs. Heat -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for the NBA Playoffs on Monday, April 29.

Celtics vs Heat Odds

BOS @ MIA Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-10.5 -110 -6 -115 -6.5 -112 -6.5 -110 -5.5 -125 -6 -115 -6.5 -105 -6.5 -114 -10.5 -110  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+10.5 -110 +6 -105 +6.5 -108 +6.5 -110 +5.5 -105 +6 -105 +6.5 -125 +6.5 -112 +10.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
o202.5 -110 o105 -110 o104.5 -114 N/A o105.5 -115 o105 -108 o105.5 -115 o104.5 -122 o204.5 -108  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
u202.5 -110 u105 -110 u104.5 -106 N/A u105.5 -115 u105 -112 u105.5 -115 u104.5 -107 u204.5 -112  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-590 N/A -355 -350 -375 -355 N/A -420 -520  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+430 N/A +270 +260 +225 +280 N/A +295 +400  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-10.5 -110 -0.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -4.5 -122 -10.5 -110  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+10.5 -110 +0.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +4.5 -107 +10.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
o202.5 -110 o99 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A o98.5 -122 o204.5 -108  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
u202.5 -110 u99 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A u98.5 -109 u204.5 -112  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-590 N/A -235 N/A N/A N/A N/A -265 -520  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+430 N/A +186 N/A N/A N/A N/A +200 +400  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-10.5 -110 -3 -115 -3.5 -108 -3.5 -105 -2.5 -125 -4 -105 -2.5 -125 -3.5 -109 -10.5 -110  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+10.5 -110 +3 -105 +3.5 -112 +3.5 -115 +2.5 -105 +4 -115 +2.5 -105 +3.5 -117 +10.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
o202.5 -110 o52.5 -115 o52.5 -106 N/A N/A o52.5 -115 o52.5 -110 o52.5 -120 o204.5 -108  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
u202.5 -110 u52.5 -105 u52.5 -120 N/A N/A u52.5 -105 u52.5 -120 u52.5 -109 u204.5 -112  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-590 N/A -260 -250 -220 -230 N/A -278 -520  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+430 N/A +176 +190 +170 +190 N/A +210 +400  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-10.5 -110 -3 -115 -2.5 -118 N/A -2.5 -120 -3 -105 -2.5 -115 -3.5 -110 -10.5 -110  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+10.5 -110 +3 -115 +2.5 -104 N/A +2.5 -110 +3 -115 +2.5 -110 +3.5 -117 +10.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
o202.5 -110 o52.5 -115 o52.5 -111 N/A N/A o52.5 -112 o53.5 even o52.5 -108 o204.5 -108  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
u202.5 -110 u52.5 -115 u52.5 -115 N/A N/A u52.5 -108 u53.5 -125 u52.5 -124 u204.5 -112  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-590 N/A -210 N/A N/A -205 N/A -245 -520  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+430 N/A +168 N/A N/A +170 N/A +188 +400  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-10.5 -110 -2.5 -120 -2.5 -115 N/A -2.5 -120 -3 -105 -2.5 -115 -3.5 -106 -10.5 -110  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+10.5 -110 +2.5 -110 +2.5 -105 N/A +2.5 -110 +3 -115 +2.5 -110 +3.5 -124 +10.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
o202.5 -110 o49.5 -120 o49.5 -120 N/A N/A o49.5 -118 o49.5 -105 o49.5 -115 o204.5 -108  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
u202.5 -110 u49.5 -110 u49.5 -106 N/A N/A u49.5 -102 u49.5 -125 u49.5 -114 u204.5 -112  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-590 N/A -205 N/A N/A -192 N/A -230 -520  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+430 N/A +164 N/A N/A +160 N/A +175 +400  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-10.5 -110 -2 -115 -1.5 -110 N/A -1.5 -125 -2 -115 -1.5 -120 -2.5 -105 -10.5 -110  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+10.5 -110 +2 -115 +1.5 -110 N/A +1.5 -105 +2 -105 +1.5 -110 +2.5 -124 +10.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
o202.5 -110 o49 -115 o49.5 -106 N/A N/A o48.5 -115 o48.5 -115 o49.5 -112 o204.5 -108  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
u202.5 -110 u49 -115 u49.5 -120 N/A N/A u48.5 -105 u48.5 -110 u49.5 -120 u204.5 -112  
Final
Boston Celtics 557 Celtics
-590 N/A -158 N/A -180 -175 N/A -182 -520  
Miami Heat 558 Heat
+430 N/A +128 N/A +140 +145 N/A +140 +400  

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Celtics vs Heat Picks & Prediction

Was Game 2 a fluke? Or, does Miami actually have what it takes to make this a competitive series? Based on the result of the most recent meeting between these two teams – a 104-84 road victory for Boston – the common belief will likely be that the Heat’s win in Game 2 was a fluke. But I’m not so sure about that…

On paper, it may seem like the Heat won Game 2 due to pure luck, especially considering they attempted 43 of their 75 field goals from beyond the arc and knocked down a franchise-record 23 3-pointers at a 54% clip en route to a double-digit road victory.

However, in the words of the great Kevin Malone, “A fluke is one of the most common fish in the sea. So if you go fishing for a fluke, chances are, you just might catch one” – and weirdly enough, the same can sometimes be true in the NBA, and Erik Spoelstra is excellent at fishing for flukes. 

The Heat have no business hanging around and making this series competitive, especially in the absence of Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier. Miami is totally outmatched in almost every facet of the game. However, the first step in narrowing the gap is being able to recognize when the odds are stacked against you and begin altering the game plan to poke holes in the opposing team’s system – and that’s exactly what Miami did in Game 2, although admittedly the method of victory isn’t very sustainable.

The Celtics are the most efficient team in the NBA from 3-point range, and they are well aware of that particular notion. The Celtics put up more 3-point attempts than anybody in the league (42.5 per game), and they make them at the 2nd-best clip (38.8%). But, a big part of how they weaponize their 3-point efficiency is by limiting the total number of possessions per game, highlighted by Boston ranking 23rd in pace (97.2).

The Celtics have the best 3-point shooters. So it’s no surprise their overall strategy is to commit to the longball early and slow down the pace so they can lean on their defense and ensure they take more 3-pointers than the opposing team to maximize efficiency – which has been an ironclad formula for Boston all year.

However, by doing that, the Celtics naturally expose themselves to the possibility of losing a 3-point shooting contest on any given night – and while there’s no denying the fact they will win most of their shootouts, it leaves the door open for severely undermatched teams to steal a game from them here and there via a skew in 3-point variance like the Heat did in Game 2.

It’s all a numbers’ game for the Heat right now. They shot 12-of-37 (32%) from 3-point range in Game 1, 23-of-43 (54%) in Game 2, and then 9-of-28 (32%) in Game 3 – averaging 36 long range attempts per game through the first three games of the series, the third-most amongst the16 playoff teams thus far, only behind Boston and Indiana.

It’s only a matter of time before shots start falling again for the Heat. I’m not sure if it will be enough for them to steal another victory, but I think we’ll see the pendulum swing back toward their direction in Game 4 – and at the very least, give Boston a good sweat.

Pick: Heat +10.5 (-110)

Click this link for picks and predictions for all First Round NBA Playoff matchups!

Celtics vs Heat Game Time & TV Channel

Date: Monday, April 29
Matchup: Atlantic vs Southeast
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, FL
Time-TV: TNT, 7:30 p.m. ET

Celtics vs Heat Betting Stats

1) Boston Celtics
(1st Place, Atlantic)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +115
  • Odds to Win Conference: -230
  • Odds to Win Series: -100000
  • SU: 64-18
  • ATS: 43-38-1
  • O/U: 37-44-1
  • PPG: 120.6
  • OPPG: 109.2

Click this link for the latest betting trends and market movements leading up to the NBA Finals!

8) Miami Heat
(2nd Place, Southeast)

  • Odds To Win Finals: +70000
  • Odds to Win Conference: +20000
  • Odds to Win Series: +4000
  • SU: 46-36
  • ATS: 41-41
  • O/U: 43-39
  • PPG: 110.1
  • OPPG: 108.4

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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