Each year I publish a pair of reports that look at what characteristics are exhibited by teams having success against the pointspread (College & Pro Football Statistical Pattern Reports).
Not surprisingly, these factors are similar to those that lead to success in winning games straight up on the playing field.
Several of these strong factors are not surprising, but will enable you to see that many of the phases of the game emphasized by coaches and observers are every bit as important as we are led to believe.
Here is a look at some of those factors in both college and pro football and how they have pointed to pointspread success thus far in 2010 and how they have fared historically over the 22 seasons between 1988 and 2009 ('pushes' have been ignored):
PRO FOOTBALL
Category
2010
Pct.
1988-2009 %
Better than 2-1 Rushing edge
33-10
76.7%
80.0%
Rush for over 150, Allow under 100
22-4
84.6%
81.7%
Rush for over 100, Allow under 100
49-16
75.4%
74.8%
Allow under 100 rushing yards
66-33
66.7%
66.8%
Commit fewer turnovers
73-21
77.7%
77.4%
Commit at least 3 fewer turnovers
28-3
90.3%
89.9%
More Rushing Attempts
84-24
77.8%
75.2%
Higher Yards per Rush Attempt
65-47
58.0%
51.3 %
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Category
2010
Pct.
1988-2009 %
Better than 2-1 Rushing edge
177-87
67.0%
73.6%
Rush for over 150, Allow under 100
137-57
70.6%
75.0 %
Rush for over 100, Allow under 100
170-84
66.9%
71.4%
Allow under 100 rushing yards
197-111
66.0%
68.0%
Commit fewer turnovers
280-113
71.2%
70.9%
Commit at least 3 fewer turnovers
83-21
79.8%
83.1%
More Rushing Attempts
307-199
60.7%
64.9%
Higher Yards per Rush Attempt
317-203
61.0%
62.9%
As you can see, it is hard to overstate the importance of a strong running game, a solid rushing defense and the ability to create a positive turnover margin or, more to the point, avoiding turnovers.
While the above statistics represent what has happened when teams accomplish these things in games, it can help us in our handicapping by looking for matchups between teams that have exhibited these characteristics in past games when facing teams that have allowed these things to happen to them. Keep these fundamentals in mind when you handicap on your own and you'll focus in on the important factors that lead to pointspread success.
