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NFL Tech Trends - Week 3
September 19, 2012
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
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G-Men ended 2012 by covering their last five away from home. Cam 4-1 as home dog since LY and Panthers "over" 11-6-1 since 2011. |
Slight to Giants, based on recent road mark. |
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Note that Jay Cutler has covered his last five games when made a favorite (not counting late LY with Hanie at QB for Bears) and now 8-1 last nine as chalk since late 2010. Lovie also 11-3 "over" last 14 at Soldier Field. Rams already have as many road covers in 2012 (one) as they had away from home all of LY. |
"Over" and slight to Bears, based on "totals" and Cutler chalk trends. |
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Dallas 3-11-1 its last 15 as chalk since late 2010. Jerry Jones also "under" 13-6 last 19 since late 2010. |
Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends. |
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After Det. Sept. 16, Harbaugh 14-5-1 vs. line since LY; road cover at GB was first after dropping last four vs. spread away LY. Vikes no covers last five at Metrodome. |
49ers, based on Harbaugh marks and Vike home woes. |
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Note that Munchak only 6-11-1 vs. line since taking over at Tennessee LY and has now dropped last six vs. spread since late 2011 as well. Lions now "over" 24-12-3 last 39 since late in 2009 season, and Jim Schwartz just 3-11 vs. spread last 14 on board since early 2011. |
"Over," based on extended Lions' "totals" trends. |
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Marvin Lewis fading vs. number since mid 2011, only 2-7-2 vs. spread last 11 on board. Bengals also "over" 12-6-1 since 2011. Shan "over" 7-2 last 9 since late 2011. |
"Over," based on "totals" trends. |
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Miami has won and covered 4 of 6 vs. Rex Ryan since 2009 but that was with Rexy's new o.c. Sparano as the Dolphins' HC. Rexy also "over" 29-13 since late in 2009 campaign, though Miami "under" 13-5 since LY. |
Slight to Jets and "over," based on team and Jets' extended "over" trend. |
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Chiefs "over" first two but had been "under" 17-5 previous 22. Saints stubbed toe vs. Skins in opener but still 9-1 vs. line last 10 at Superdome since LY. Saints also "over" 14-7 last 21 overall. |
"Over" and Saints, based on "totals" and extended team trends. |
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Bills now "over" 13-6 last 19 overall. Buffalo has lost 10 of last 12 SU and is just 3-9 vs. line in those games since mid 2011. |
"Over" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and Bills trends. |
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Colts 9-16 vs. spread since since mid 2010. |
Slight to Jags, based on team trends. |
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Cards won in a mild upset at Linc LY. Andy Reid only 4-8 last 12 as chalk, Whisenhunt 9-3 vs. points last 11 on board, also 12-5 as home dog since 2007. |
Cards, based on team trends.. |
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ATLANTA at SAN DIEGO...Norv 7-9-1 vs. line first 3 games of season since taking over Bolts in 2007. Norv "under" 9-3 last 12 at Qualcomm. |
Slight to "under" and Falcs, based on Norv trends. |
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HOUSTON at DENVER...Kubiak 15-5 vs. line since LY and 12-2 last 14 on board. Kubiak also covered last five as dog in 2011. Broncos "over" 28-12 since late 2009, though Kubiak "under" 13-7 since LY. |
Slight to Texans and "over," based on Texans team and extended Bronco "over" trends. |
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PITTSBURGH at OAKLAND...Raiders 3-5 vs. line last 8 at home, but Steelers only 2-5 last 7 on board since late LY. Tomlin has also dropped last five vs. line on road and 2-9 last 11 away. |
Slight to Raiders, based on recent Steel road woes. |
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AFC title rematch. Last four meetings between these two have been at Foxborough, Pats 3-1 SU and 2-2 vs. line. If getting points, Belichick has covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 chances as dog. Belichick also 10-4 vs. line last 14 on road. And Belichick also "over" 28-12 since late 2009. |
Slight to "over" and Belichick, if dog, based on Belichick trends. |
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...Pete Carroll 13-5 vs. line at home since arriving at Seattle in 2010, also "over" 11-6 last 17 at Century Link Field. Pack on 18-8 spread run since late 2010. |
"Over" and slight to Seahawks, based on Pete Carroll trends.. |
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