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Total Talk - Week 2

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Week 1 Recap

Even though the first week of the NFL season watched every nationally televised game go ‘over’ the number, the total results from the opening weekend was a stalemate at 8-8. Bettors saw the ‘under’ go an eye-opening 8-1 in the early games on Sunday and the majority of the results were clear-cut. This past Thursday the Patriots beat the Jets 13-10 and most sportsbooks were probably pleased to see the primetime ‘over’ run come to an end.

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What should total bettors expect going forward? I hate to use a line from women and compare it to sports betting but it’s fair to say that 40 is the new 30, especially when looking at totals. In the opening weekend, 15 of the 16 games had totals listed at 40 or more points and three were in the fifties. In Week 2, the same scenario is playing out and you could see all games be listed above 40 with the Jacksonville-Oakland matchup hovering around 39 points.

Three more games are listed above 50 points this week and that doesn’t necessarily mean shootouts. In Week 1, the ‘under’ went 2-1 with the high numbers, the lone winner being the Monday Night matchup between Philadelphia and Washington. The Eagles are catching a lot of buzz right now for their pace but at the end of the day, they only put up 31 points from their offense. This week, Philadelphia welcomes San Diego and you can see below that the early money has already poured in on the ‘over.’

Line Moves

Here are all of the line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

San Diego at Philadelphia – Line opened 51 ½ and jumped to 54
Cleveland at Baltimore – Line opened 42 and jumped to 43 ½
Tennessee at Houston – Line opened 41 and jumped to 42 ½
Washington at Green Bay – Line opened 48 and jumped to 50
Minnesota at Chicago – Line opened 40 and jumped to 41 ½
Detroit at Arizona – Line opened 46 and jumped to 48 1/2
Jacksonville at Oakland – Line opened 41 and dropped to 39 ½
Denver at N.Y. Giants – Line opened 52 ½ and jumped to 55

Divisional Matchups

The ‘over’ went 4-2 in divisional games last week. Including Thursday’s game between the Jets and Patriots, Week 2 features six more divisional battles.

Cleveland at Baltimore
The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Baltimore has won 11 straight in this series and during this domination, Cleveland has been held to 17 points or less 10 times.

Tennessee at Houston
The ‘over’ is 3-1 the past two seasons. During this span, the Texans have averaged 31.3 points per game.

Minnesota at Chicago
The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series. However, Chicago has posted 28, 39, 27 and 36 points in its last four encounters at home against the Vikings.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Seven of the last eight meetings between this pair have seen the ‘under’ cash. Last season, New Orleans put up 41 and 35 against Tampa Bay. The total has ranged between 49 and 54 points in the last four meetings but this week’s number is hovering around 47, which could tell you that the oddsmakers are starting to notice the aforementioned trend.

San Francisco at Seattle (See Below)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (See Below)

Under the Lights

San Francisco at Seattle
The number on this game is bouncing around 44, which is the highest total this matchup has seen since 2003 when Jeff Garcia and Matt Hasselbeck were going head-to-head for the 49ers and Seahawks respectively. Fast forward 10 years and quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson will attempt to light up the scoreboard. The past three years, the Seahawks and 49ers have seen the total go 1-1 in their regular season matchups. In Jim Harbaugh’s first year in San Francisco, the team was more known for its defense but that changed last year and so did the total results. The 49ers watched the ‘over’ go 9-1 in their final 10 games of the 2012-13 regular season and playoffs. Also, last week’s 34-28 home win against Green Bay in Week 1 was an easy ‘over’ ticket. Seattle has a great defensive unit but it will be missing key parts to that group on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
As of Saturday, this total was hovering between 40 and 41 points, which is the second lowest number on the board. The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings and after watching Pittsburgh’s offense (194 yards, 7 points) struggle at home in Week 1, not many bettors are expecting an explosion on Monday against a sound Cincinnati defense. The Bengals watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 at home last season and even though Cincinnati allowed 24 points to Chicago last week, its defense played very well up until the end of the game.

Fearless Predictions

We turned a profit in this section last season and hope to churn out more winning tickets in 2013. If you’re new to TT, all wagers are based on one-unit and we play a nine-point teaser at even money (+100). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Denver-N.Y. Giants 54

Best Under: Tennessee-Houston 43

Best Team Total: Over N.Y. Giants 26

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Denver-N.Y. Giants 45
Under Jacksonville-Oakland 38.5
Under Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 50

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

  
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