Week 4 Tip Sheet
September 26, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
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Steelers (-2 ½, 42) vs. Vikings (At London, England) - 1:00 PM EST
Pittsburgh: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Minnesota: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
Last week's results: Pittsburgh fell behind early and could never get over the hump against unbeaten Chicago, as the Steelers lost, 37-20 as a one-point home underdog. The Vikings were expected to knock off 0-2 Cleveland, but Minnesota was shocked as seven-point favorites in a 31-27 home defeat.
Previous meeting: The Steelers took care of the Vikings at Heinz Field, 27-17 as six-point favorites in 2009. Pittsburgh picked up a fortunate cover on an 82-yard interception return of a Brett Favre pass with 1:15 remaining in regulation, while Adrian Peterson was limited to 69 yards on the ground.
Betting notes: Mike Tomlin's club has struggled in the role of a road favorite, putting together a 1-6 ATS record since 2011, which includes outright losses at Oakland, Cleveland, and Tennessee. Even though this is a neutral site contest, the Vikings are listed as the home team. Last season, Minnesota won and covered in all four opportunities as a home underdog, while winning each of their last four games before the bye week.
Colts (-8 ½, 43) at Jaguars - 1:00 PM EST
Indianapolis: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
Jacksonville: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Colts hit the road for the first time this season and dominated the 49ers as 10 ½-point underdogs, 27-7. Jacksonville continues to make a case to be the worst team in football after getting pounded at Seattle, 45-17, while not coming close to cashing as 19 ½-point 'dogs.
Previous meeting: The two division rivals split a pair of games last season with the road team winning each time. The Jaguars shocked the Colts with an 80-yard touchdown pass late in a 22-17 victory as three-point road underdogs last September, but Indianapolis destroyed Jacksonville in north Florida, 27-10 as three-point 'chalk' seven weeks later.
Betting notes: The Colts won and covered four of six divisional games last season, including victories at Tennessee and Jacksonville. Since the start of last season, the Jaguars own a dreadful 2-6 ATS record as a home underdog, with seven straight-up losses coming by at least seven points.
Cardinals at Buccaneers (-2 ½, 40 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Arizona: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
Last week's results: Both Arizona and Tampa Bay failed to cover as road underdogs, while each team was limited to single-digits. The Cardinals scored the opening touchdown at New Orleans, but the Saints would put the next 31 points in a 31-7 rout. The Bucs' offense continued to struggle in a 23-3 defeat at New England, the third consecutive 'under' for Greg Schiano's club.
Previous meeting: Tampa Bay outlasted Arizona in the desert, 38-35 back in 2010 as the Bucs cashed outright as three-point underdogs. The Cardinals are making their first trip to Tampa since 2007, as the Bucs held off Arizona, 17-10.
Betting notes: The Bucs are putting the Josh Freeman experiment on hold by starting rookie Mike Glennon at quarterback. Under Schiano, Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite, while losing four straight games at Raymond James Stadium. The Cardinals have cashed four of their last six games as a single-digit road underdog, while dropping eight consecutive road contests overall.
Giants at Chiefs (-4, 44) - 1:00 PM EST
New York: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Kansas City: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
Last week's results: These two teams are going in opposite directions as the Chiefs go for their first 4-0 start since 2003. Kansas City knocked off Philadelphia last Thursday, 26-16 as three-point road underdogs, the second away cover for Andy Reid's team. The Giants can't seem to get out of their own way after allowing 402 yards in a 38-0 defeat at Carolina, the third straight game New York has given up at least 36 points.
Previous meeting: The last time the Giants traveled to Arrowhead Stadium, New York was seeking a 4-0 start instead of falling in an 0-4 hole. New York cruised past Kansas City, 27-16 as nine-point favorites in 2009, the third straight victory in the series dating back to 2001.
Betting notes: The Chiefs have won six of their last seven home games against AFC opponents, while posting a 5-2 ATS mark. The Giants have failed to cash in each of the first three games, while last having an 0-4 ATS stretch back in 2009, which ended up being an 0-6 ATS run after starting the season at 5-0.
Redskins (-3 ½, 44) at Raiders - 4:25 PM EST
Washington: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Oakland: 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS
Last week's results: Washington won the NFC East title last season, but the Redskins boast the league's worst defense by allowing 32.6 points per game. The Redskins fell at home to the Lions, 27-20, the third straight non-cover, as Washington never went three consecutive games without an ATS win last season. The Raiders barely improved to 3-0 ATS with a late touchdown at Denver, but lost to the explosive Broncos, 37-21. Terrelle Pryor left the game with a concussion, as Oakland plans to start Matt Flynn at quarterback on Sunday.
Previous meeting: The Redskins traveled to the Black Hole and routed the Raiders, 34-13 as short road favorites in 2009. The away team has won each of the last five matchups since 1992, including two victories by Washington at Oakland.
Betting notes: Washington has been a reliable road team under Mike Shanahan, posting a 15-10 ATS record since 2010. The Raiders own an 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS record the last six games against NFC opponents, including home defeats to the Saints and Bucs.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org
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