SNF - Giants at Broncos
October 12, 2017
By Micah Roberts
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The New York Giants' miserable 0-5 season got even worse during a three-day stretch beginning Sunday that saw almost their entire wide-receiver unit be declared out for Sunday night's game at Denver. That means no Odell Beckham, Jr. (fibula), no Sterling Shepard (ankle), no Brandon Marshall (ankle) and no Dwayne Harris (foot).
Needless to say, the spread was dramatically inflated to make up for the losses as well as public perception at the bet windows. How does Denver -12 sound?
That's a big number, the most the Giants have gotten since the 2007 season when the Patriots were 12-point favorites in the Super Bowl. The Giants have covered two of their five losses so far, but some are getting the feeling that the Giants are in the Sam Darnold running, the USC QB who is the probable No. 1 draft pick.
It's hard to believe there's any tanking going on, but the thought of it must absolutely be considered. Also, there's a rumor going around that head coach Ben McAdoo will fired heading into the bye after Week 7.
Last season, after a 2-3 start, the Giants went on went on a 6-0 run winning nine of their last 11. Manning gets streaky at some juncture almost every season, but its a lot easier to do with Beckham. How does a Darnold to Beckham future sound?
As far as the Broncos go, they roll in with the NFL's No. 1 defense. The jury is still out on Denver QB Trevor Siemien when he's on the road, but so far he's been brilliant as a starter at home going 3-0. Their strength is the running game which averages 143 ypg, which is bad news for a Giants defense that allows 139 ypg. Denver also comes in fresh and healthy off a bye, a situation they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21.
On paper, this looks like a total mismatch with Giants key personnel missing, but outside of Denver's 42-17 wipeout of Dallas they've had trouble closing out games strong in the fourth quarter.
Wow, is this some kind of crazy swing, but there's some logical reasons. CG Technology sports books posted the Broncos -3 in May indicating both teams had similar ratings prior to the pre-season. Last week, the Westgate SuperBook posted Denver -6. With the Giants losing almost their entire receiving corps for the game, CG books posted Denver -10 on Sunday night. On Monday, the number ran to -12 as more injuries piled on and on Thursday it got as high as -13 before settling at -11.5. The total dropped from 41 down to as low as 38.5 at a few books. The average LV total is showing 39. Most money-lines around town have Denver -700 and the Giants +500.
BECKHAM, JR. WORTH
Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White tells me Odell Beckham, Jr. is worth 1.5 points, which makes him the most valuable WR in the game, and one of the highest rated up there with the All-time greats. He's a game changer.
Since the season began, I've dropped the Giants rating three points and I've raised the Broncos one point making the Broncos -2.5 here on a neutral field prior to factoring in injuries, and Denver gets a full three points for home field. So I'm at -5.5, and the Giants' WR outage is worth 4.5 more making Denver -10 a solid beginning number.
But when factoring in public perception of a struggling Eli Manning having no one to throw to, wagers are going to be one-sided and because its a Sunday night game that notion deserves to be double and worth two points. so there you have it, a 12-point spread.
-- NYG is 2-9-2 ATS in last 13 road games against winning home teams.
-- NYG Under is 6-1 in last seven games following ATS loss.
-- DEN is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following a win.
-- DEN Over is 6-1 in last seven games following a win.
Denver has covered the past four meetings, winning three, the last coming at MetLife Stadium in 2013 with Peyton Manning and the Broncos winning 41-23. The most similar situation to this weeks match-up happened at Giants Stadium in 1998 when the Broncos were 13-0. It's not so recent, but the 5-8 Giants pulled out the 20-16 win as 13-point underdogs. Prior to that game, head coach Jim Fassel wrote three words on the chalkboard: Shock the world.
NEXT WEEK'S SPREADS
The Westgate SuperBook released their Week 7 spreads on Tuesday and came with the Seahawks as a 7.5-point road favorites against the Giants. That's a major indictment on the woes of the Giants, especially considering the Seahawks aren't in an elite class anymore with their faulty offensive-line. The Broncos opened as 2.5-point road favorites against the Chargers.
AFC WEST: Chiefs 2/5, Broncos 11/4, Raiders 8/1, Chargers 35/1
NFC EAST: Eagles 4/9, Cowboys 3/1, Redskins 5/1, Giants 100/1
SUPER BOWL ODDS
Each time that Eli Manning and the Giants won the Super Bowl they were in the 25/1 range to win it, so when books are setting their odds they always keep that in the back of their mind, as well as Manning getting on a four week roll and beating anyone. The Westgate opened the Giants 25/1, but now at 0-5 they want to squeeze out as much cash they can out of bettors and have made them now 1,000/1 while still mathematically alive.
The Broncos opened 20/1 and are down to 14/1 with respect given towards the NFL's top-ranked defense who carried Peyton Manning two seasons ago in the worst statistical season of his career. Their defense is so good they could keep winning despite Siemien being mediocre.
16-2 G-Plays, 6-1 Totals, 13-7 Picks
5-1 Run, 8-0 L8 Guarantees
6-2 L8 Picks, +2,280 Overall TY
9-3 L12 Picks, +1,685 This Season
4-1 Week 14, 9-2 L11 Picks
9-1 L2 Sundays, 18-9 G-Plays TY
6-2 Sunday, +1,449 Net Profits TY
5-0 Last 5 Guaranteed Run
7-2 G-Plays, 16-7 L10 Sun, 65% TY
11-2 L2 Sundays, 49-24 L12 Sun.
3-1 L4 G-Plays, 5-2 L7 Selections
19-7 Last 26 Guaranteed Plays
5-2 L7 Totals, 8-4 L12 Picks
2-0 Week 14, 3-0 L3 G-Plays
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