Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
November 10, 2017
By Micah Roberts
Sharp action has jumped on a couple sides Las Vegas sports books will eventually need in Sunday's Week 10 NFL action. There are also a few large favorites involving popular public teams the books know they're going to have beat down to have a winning day.
"This one is the most fun of the week," an excited Jason Simbal said Friday in regards to booking Sunday's card for his seven CG Technology sports books. "All the sharps are on the Browns. They took +12.5, +12, and then +11.5 last night -- all max bets. I'm going to leave it at (Lions) -11 for now and see where it takes us because I know the majority of the public action this week isn't taking the Browns."
The Detroit Lions (4-4) are one of three double-digit favorites Sunday which causes a danger alert for the sports books because large money-line parlays and teasers will create some major risk. Pittsburgh is -10 at Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Rams are 12-point home favorites over quarterback Tom Savage and the Texans. Watching Houston's offense without DeShaun Watson behind center is eye opening to just how good Watson was as a rookie.
The winless Browns (0-8) have gone 2-6 against the spread this season. In their last 16 road games, the Browns have gone an ugly 3-12-1 ATS. But still, inflated lines on the Browns opponents attract the wise guys tpo Cleveland. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 and come off a Monday night win at Green Bay, which snapped a three-game losing skid.
The popular Steelers have taken 87 percent of the cash wagered on the game at William Hill sports books through Thursday night. The 3-6 Colts have covered their last two and five of nine this season. Pittsburgh (6-2) comes off a bye and have won and covered their last three with an attacking defense that is allowing just 16.4 points per game which has helped them become the best 'under' team (7-1) in the NFL. Despite the Steelers total trend, this total has moved up from 43.5 to 45.
Other one-sided tickets written games at William Hill's 107 sports books across Nevada include the Bears (80%) at home against the Packers, Jets (91%) at Tampa Bay, Rams (87%) at home against Houston, Cowboys (89%) at Atlanta and Patriots (84%) at Denver.
The most bet game of the week so far is also the Sunday Night Football game, which means the result of the game will probably dictate whether or not the books win on Sunday.
"The biggest public play of the week has been the Patriots at Denver," said Simbal, who has the Patriots -7 -120. "It's been all Pats and I don't think that is going to change. We have a ticket ratio on them already at 8.8-to-1 and that figure will rise over the weekend.
"While we haven't had a lot of tickets written on the Broncos, the bets that did come on them were all sharp guys taking +7.5," he explained. "There were four of them."
Simbal also said that despite the large Broncos (3-5) money, he'll still be rooting for Denver to cover or win because the parlay liability from the first 11 games will have the majority of the payout tickets tied to the Patriots (6-2). The combination of the three double-digit favorites and the Patriots covering would be a crushing four-bagger on all payout charts (teasers, parlays, money-line parlays, parlay cards).
"Yeah, we're going to need the dog to cover a couple those," Simbal said, despite already having large money on the Browns and Patriots.
There's one other game the sharps jumped at during the week. It's the battle for the overall No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft with the 1-7 New York Giants visiting the 0-9 San Francisco 49ers. Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen? I don't know if there's a loser in either selection, so let's see both sides play the game to win.
"They've (sharps) pushed the Giants up -2.5 -120 after we opened the 49ers -1," said Simbal, CG's VP of risk management. "We took max bets at Giants +1, pick, and then we went to Giants -2 and they laid -2 and -2.5, which is where we're at now, -120."
Rookie QB C.J. Beathard is expected to start again for the 49ers while new acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo will be on the sideline in uniform and ready to go if needed. The Giants have lost and failed to cover their last two -- both at home -- following their only win at Denver. The 49ers have covered only twice in their last 11 home games.
Simbal also said his books took some sharp action on the Jets (4-5) at Tampa Bay (2-6). They opened the Bucs -1.5 and the number ran to Jets being -2.5. The Bucs are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the injured Jameis Winston. They've gone a disappointing 1-6-1 ATS so far. The Jets have been one of the best cover teams in the league at 6-2-1 ATS. Jets QB Josh McCown has completed 70.4 percent of his passes this season.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 13 years.
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