Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
December 7, 2017
Just wanted to give a shout out to all of our readers and fans, and apologize for the lack of content this week. Some unexpected surgery laid up yours truly early in the week and I’m just getting back on the wagon.
BetOnline.ag will be back with our regularly scheduled programming next week. In the meantime, I’ve got just enough energy to squeeze out some picks for NFL Week 14 betting so I don’t leave you lot hanging for the weekend.
Odds per BetOnline.ag
Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings
If I’m speaking frankly, this is a hunch more than anything. The trends and momentum all favor the Vikings, who will hit the road to play in hostile territory for the third straight game. They’ve proven themselves after outlasting Atlanta last week and Detroit the week prior.
But eventually the bottom has to fall out with the Vikings. It’s sort of a trend that we see in college football where the top teams keep getting randomly dethroned. However, losing to the Panthers would be anything but random. They’re still a good football team.
Minnesota has an unbelievably hot 4-0 SU and ATS road record heading in to this game, but it’s just too good to be true at this point. Mike Zimmer has done an incredible job with this squad that’s undeniably worth Coach of the Year consideration. He’s playing with his backup backfield after all. Still, there’s a feeling that the bubble on this team is about to pop.
Carolina already experienced that awful, bursting sensation when they were throttled by the Saints in Week 13. That’s their tendency this year. The Panthers can pick up huge, rolling victories and follow them up with brutal losses that seem to come out of nowhere. Fortunately, they seem to have thick skin.
If this game has letdown potential for any team, it’s the Vikings. They’re riding just a bit too high right now and it’s been a long time since they’ve faced a truly great team operating at full capacity. Obviously you can tell from the tone of this section that both team represent good wagers. I just don’t want to be on the wrong side of the levy when the bow breaks for the Vikings.
Los Angeles Chargers -6.0 over Washington Redskins
This is a friendly reminder not to be intimidated by this betting line. The Chargers deserve to be favorites for a lot of reasons, most notably that they’re playing playoff worthy football. As for the Washington Redskins, it’s a real dumpster fire these days. This team has just fought uphill against bad management, bad luck and bad injuries.
Sure, they’ve had plenty of time to recalibrate after taking a beating from Dallas last week but I don’t know if they have the pieces to lay down a solid foundation again. The Chargers have been a piss poor 2-4 ATS at home this year, but are riding a breezy 3-1 SU and ATS run that’s worth cashing in on here.
Oakland Raiders +4.0 over Kansas City Chiefs
Could things get any worse for the Chiefs? You bet they can! Kansas City losing a shootout to Josh McCown is a sign of just how predictable and broken the Chiefs have become. As for the Raiders, they absolutely feel like a late blooming onion with their running game thundering downhill thanks to the inevitable explosion of a now-game-ready Marshawn Lynch.
There are zero elements that are truly trustworthy on either side. Oakland is brutal on the road at 0-3-1 ATS while the Chiefs are horrible overall. All that means is that the line here is far too generous, making the Raiders a surprisingly, phenomenal value play either with the points or on the moneyline.
New York Jets -1.0 over Denver Broncos
Nearly four weeks ago, we all panicked that the Jets were no longer a fun betting team. At least I did. Losing to Tampa is usually a bad sign in 2017. However, the Jets have shown some spice with a 35-27 loss to Carolina and a 38-31 steamrolling of Kansas City. This team is putting up some serious points, but they’ve also faced some harsh lines.
This spread seems absolutely perfect. The Jets in a pick ‘em is a fun play against a Denver team that is 0-8 SU and ATS since their bye week with zero relief in sight. While New York remains one of the delightful surprises of the 2017 NFL betting season, Denver remains the most glaring and unexpected disappointment. I don’t get it either, but I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth while I’m trying to sort out the mess.
Philadelphia Eagles +2.0 over Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles were brought back to earth in a violent manner by the Seattle Seahawks, and now they have to travel out west again to take on the Rams. This is going to be fun. How often do we get the top-two picks from the same year battling it out in games that actually matter?
This is the game where we find out what Philadelphia is made of. People have made a big deal out of their play-doh schedule, and it turns out that we were right to keep bringing it up. The Eagles have to prove to the world that they’re tougher mentally than most teams that just took a beating and I’m willing to pay to find out.
The Rams themselves proved to be worthy of conference consideration when they beat New Orleans in a war of attrition 26-20 two weeks ago, and carried through that momentum by beating up on the Cardinals. If there’s one glaring weakness with the Rams, it’s their rushing defence and the Eagles are soaring in to town with three known weapons in Ajayi, Blount and Clement that can do damage.
Goff and Wentz have both proven to be animals in the pocket, and each have some good weapons. Gurley is by far the deadliest, and a huge reason why the Rams are an unreal 4-2 ATS at home this year, but Wentz has a wider variety. That leaves the Eagles better focused to attack this game with a more decisive game plan.
As usual, if the Rams are playing a team that is relatively equal then I’m going with the team that has the better quarterback. Right now, that means backing Wentz in a bounce back game for the Eagles.
Catch up on all the NFL Week 14 action at BetOnline.ag and get ready for the playoffs with our exciting futures market while you’re at it!
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23-11 Totals, +833 Overall TY
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