Monday's Best Bet
November 9, 2018
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NFL Week 10 MNF Betting Preview
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
Last week's MNF betting piece was able to bring home a winner with the 'over' selection, although the Cowboys getting shutout in the 2nd half did us no favors there. Thankfully the Cowboys offense had enough success in the first 30 minutes to do their part, but that's all in the past now as it's time to look ahead to Week 10's MNF matchup.
Granted, schedule makers probably assumed there would be more than a total of three wins combined between the Giants and 49ers when they squared off for this meeting, but it's been a tumultuous season for both organizations for very different reasons.
For San Francisco, it's been all about injuries as they saw their franchise QB Jimmy Garoppolo be lost for the season early, and it's been all about patchwork for them since. New York has their own QB concerns as Eli Manning has declined so rapidly that New York's essentially been left “holding the bag” with him and his contract, unable or unwilling to move on from him as of yet. Manning's play isn't the only cause of all the dysfunction New York's dealt with this year, but you've really got to wonder how long it will be before the rest of the team “quits” on the 2018 season. The Giants appear to be awfully close to that breaking point now.
YouWager.eu Odds: San Francisco (-3); Total set at 44
Games like this can be tough to handicap from the simple standpoint that you can't be overly confident in the motivation levels on either side. That's especially true for the Giants, who have the look and feel of a team that just wants this season to be over as quickly as possible. They were expected to compete for a division crown, a playoff spot, and from there who knows, and to enter Week 10 with a 1-7 SU record has been completely embarrassing.
They are getting blasted for not taking a QB with the 2nd overall pick having known Eli was nearing the end of his career, but hindsight is always 20/20 and I don't see how the Giants could have figured Manning's decline would be so swift and sudden in 2018. RB Saquon Barkley – who they did take #2 overall – is still going to be a stud in this league, so it's not like New York completely whiffed with their draft pick, but it's still New York and that market will rip you to shreds unless you are either running the table or winning championships.
On the other side of the field, San Francisco should be the team you can rely on more in terms of motivation this week, simply because they looked great on TNF a week ago in dismantling another dysfunctional team in the Oakland Raiders. Third-string QB Nick Mullens looked great in that win, as stories of his preparation and work ethic from his teammates were great to hear post-game. The 49ers understand that this year is considered a “building” year for them, and to see them rally around and fight hard for a guy like Mullens was great. The young signal caller will be making the start this week again, and from that standpoint alone you've probably got to lean with San Francisco at this price.
A lean on the 49ers should turn into a play though as this Giants team is one that simply can't be trusted to bring quality effort the rest of the year – especially on the road. Sure, New York is off a bye week, and if they are ones to stand up and show some professional pride, this may be a good spot to do so, but you only have to look to last year's disastrous season for New York to see why that probably won't be the case.
It was about this time last year that New York went into the bye week knowing their season was done – they were 1-6 SU heading into the bye – and came back the following week to host the Rams as 6-point home dogs. Situationally, you would figure everything lined up well for New York then; at home, off a bye, looking to play spoiler etc, and they went out and got blasted 51-17.
The following week, a similar narrative was being spun as they were 3-point road favorites in San Francisco and many expected them to bow their necks, be professional and come away with a win. Well that wasn't the case as the 49ers ended up with a 31-21 victory as the Giants showed no focus and were ill-prepared. It wasn't until the following week back at home that the Giants did eventually show that professionalism as they knocked off the Chiefs 12-9 as +10 home dogs. Moral of the story: don't trust teams that have mentally folded away from home.
I'm not sure how this week will be any different for New York, as the long cross-country flight after a week of personal fun and relaxation (Odell Beckham did attention Alabama/LSU last week), isn't conducive to being focused to try and win a football game in hostile territory. The Giants best ATS results this year have come away from home (3-1 ATS on the road), and it's part of why they are currently receiving about 70% of the ATS wagers currently, but from my eyes this team has folded up shop. There might be one or two “professional” efforts from the Giants left this year, and I'd venture a guess that they either come at home or against a division foe.
This game against the 49ers qualifies as none of those, and with the 49ers being an organization that loves to be featured under the bright MNF lights (26-6 ATS last 32 MNF games) and the Giants on a 1-4 ATS run after a week off, I'll lay the chalk with the home side in this one. QB Nick Mullens is still looking to showcase himself to the entire league so that he can potentially become more than a 3rd string NFL QB, and what better way to do that than by having great performances in consecutive weeks when you know the rest of the league is watching.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: San Francisco -3
4-0 Sun., 7-1 L8, +1,269 TY
4-0 Run, 5-1 L2 Sun, 18-6 Picks
3-0 Week 11, 5-0 L2 Sundays
19-9 Totals, +1,004 Overall TY
5-1 Week 11, 6-0 G-Plays, 11-4 Run
3-0 L3 G-Plays, 6-1 L7 MNF Picks
6-3 L9 Picks, 13-6 Totals TY
5-1 L6 G-Plays, 9-1 L10 Totals
6-3 L2 Sundays, 8-4 L12 Picks
8-4 L5 Sundays, 9-5 G-Plays TY
23-12 L6 Sundays, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-3 L3 Sundays, 8-4 L12 G-Plays
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