2024 NBA Playoffs Picks, Predictions, Odds
Our NBA Playoffs Picks are offering up the latest Picks, Predictions, Betting Market Analysis, Futures Prices, Series Odds updates and much more to keep you informed throughout the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
NBA Playoffs Picks
Along with Predictions on each of the NBA Series, our staff will be offering up NBA Playoffs Picks on each matchup throughout the postseason as well.
Saturday, May 4
Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
TV-Time: TNT, 7:00 p.m. ET
Pick: Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Sunday, May 5
Matchup: Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
TV-Time: ABC, 1:00 p.m. ET
Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110)
Monday, May 6
Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
TV-Time: TNT, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Knicks -6 (-110)
NBA Playoffs Series Predictions
For the entire NBA Playoffs, Michael Crosson will be offering up his predictions on each of the series. You can check out his picks below along with his series outcome and betting analysis.
NBA Second Round Picks
Western Conference
No. 1 Thunder over No. 5 Mavericks
No. 2 Nuggets over No. 3 Timberwolves
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Celtics vs. TBD
No. 2 Knicks over No. 6 Pacers
Western Conference Picks
Thunder vs. Mavericks
Series Pick: Thunder (-122)
Series Prediction: Thunder Win 4-3 (+430)
After splitting the first four matchups (2-2) of their first round playoff series against LAC, the Mavericks closed out the Clippers in emphatic fashion, as Dallas won the final two games of the series by a combined margin of 43 points. So, on the heels of back-to-back impressive efforts, the Mavs now find themselves tagged as surprisingly narrow underdogs against the top-seeded Thunder in the Western Conference Semis.
The Mavericks have all the flashy tools and gadgets on offense. Scoring is rarely an issue for Dallas with the superstar duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at the helm, as the Mavericks earned the five-seed in the West with a record of 50-32 behind an offense that ranks top-10 in both offensive rating (117.6) and points per game (117.9). However, despite winning the series, those numbers didn’t quite translate to the first round of the playoffs, considering Dallas ranks 8th in team field goal percentage (46.5) and 7th in offensive rating (115.9) among the 16 teams that punched a ticket to the opening postseason round.
There’s no denying the fact the Mavs wield enough firepower to win this series, especially if they continue to somewhat replicate their top-ranked defensive rating (106.1) from the final month of the regular season – and they nearly achieved that feat in the opening round against the Clippers with a defensive rating of 109.5 through six playoff games.
However, let’s not pretend the Mavs had their hands particularly full against LAC in the absence of Kawhi Leonard for most of the previous series, and they still lost two of those games. So I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger on Dallas in Round 2 against a top-seeded Thunder team that ranked top-4 in both offensive rating (119.5) and defensive rating (112.1) during the regular season, and now owns a considerable rest advantage on top of homecourt advantage after casually sweeping New Orleans (+63 point differential) in the first round.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
Series Pick: T-Wolves +1.5 Games (-120)
Series Prediction: Nuggets Win 4-3 (+420)
In the first round of last year’s NBA Playoffs, the Nuggets and Timberwolves met in the 1 vs. 8 matchup in the West, and Denver won the series in five games (4-1). However, the Nuggets’ path to the second round of last year’s playoffs wasn’t as easy as it may seem at first glance, and now they meet again with the gap visibly more narrow between the two teams in a battle of 2 vs. 3.
The Nuggets immediately jumped out to a 3-0 series lead over Minnesota to open last year’s playoffs, with all three of those victories coming by margins of 9+ points (+47). However, as soon as everybody wrote off the T-Wolves and finished beating up on them for how they began the series, they showed a ton of fight in the final two games of the series, as Minnesota managed to escape with an overtime victory in Game 4, and then lost a heartbreaker on the road in Game 5 by a score of 112-109.
This year’s Minnesota team is much deeper, and much more efficient. Last season, the T-Wolves ranked 23rd in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating (20th Net Rating), and although the frontcourt combo of Towns and Gobert still posed an interesting matchup for Jokic and the Nuggets, it was never going to be enough to truly compete with a Denver team that ranked 6th in net rating.
This year, however, Minnesota has significantly reduced that gap at both ends of the floor, and it has paid enormous dividends all season. The T-Wolves finished 3rd in the West with a record of 56-26 this season, while ranking 16th in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating; which may not seem like a huge uptick compared to last year’s numbers on the surface, but their 3rd-ranked net rating of +6.6 certainly indicates otherwise.
With that said, I still don’t love my chances with Minnesota on the road in Game 7. The Nuggets posted a record of 33-8 at home this season, and they simply always dominate their home floor. But on the other side of that same coin, the opposite tends to be true for Denver on the road (24-17 SU, 18-24-1 ATS), and I’m not sure the Nuggets are going to be able to win a road game in this series.
So, I’ll try to thread the needle by combining T-Wolves +1.5 games (-120) and Nuggets in seven (+420) simply due to the value of both plays independently.
Eastern Conference Picks
Knicks vs. Pacers
Series Pick: Knicks -1.5 Games (-130)
Series Prediction: Knicks Win 4-1 (+300)
The Knicks are a funky group. Nothing truly jumps off the screen at either end of the floor, ranked 7th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating. It’s a clunky offense. They play a ton of hero-ball with Jalen Brunson and heavily rely on offensive rebounding to boost production. Their defense is solid, but they are vulnerable down low with OG Anunoby and Josh Hart often combining to fill the power forward spot, while Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson rotate at center – which is a big reason why I thought Philly might be able to give them some problems in the previous round.
However, I underestimated two crucial intangible factors about the Knicks, and I will not make the same mistake again: 1.) The chemistry of the Villanova trio, 2.) The homecourt advantage of Madison Square Garden.
Sometimes, a puzzle piece may seem like it doesn’t fit into the big picture when viewed separately. But then, once you slowly start putting the rest of the pieces together in real-time, all of a sudden you realize the importance of that weird misfit piece sitting on the side... Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo are those puzzle pieces for the Knicks.
Brunson was phenomenal in the first round of the playoffs, but he certainly wasn’t perfect. He had a few rough games throughout the series, and even stalled for stretches during his showstopper performances. However, Brunson’s former college teammates have an excellent feel for what type of support he needs at any given moment, whether it’s Hart grabbing 17 rebounds in Game 4 or DiVincenzo knocking down 5-of-9 three-point attempts in Game 6, they constantly pick each other up and fill voids when necessary. It’s truly a wonder to watch, and very difficult to quantify.
The other factor that somewhat flew under my radar prior to the previous round was the alarming difference between the average team’s homecourt advantage vs. homecourt advantage for the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in the playoffs. The crowd is so loud and so obnoxious at every whistle, and if you think it isn’t going to make a huge difference, just wait until the team you bet on practically wins a game on the road to even the series, only to have the referees give it away in the final seconds and then formally admit they made the wrong decision the following day due to their inability to hear any of the coaches or players frantically calling timeout, while also ignoring blatant intentional contact at multiple points during an end-of-game foul situation (yes, I’m still bitter about Sixers-Knicks Game 2).
The Pacers just won a playoff series for the first time since 2014, and they have a very bright future to look forward to with their young core. However, Indiana is still very flawed, ranked 24th in defensive rating – and while admittedly, they can’t control who they play, it’s tough to give the Pacers an overwhelming amount of credit for a lengthy first round series win over Milwaukee with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined and Damian Lillard banged-up.
NBA First Round Picks Results
Eastern Conference
No. 7 76ers over No. 2 Knicks (Loss)
No. 6 Pacers over No. 3 Bucks (Win)
No. 5 Magic over No. 4 Cavaliers
No. 1 Celtics over No. 8 Heat (Win)
Western Conference
No. 2 Nuggets over No. 7 Lakers (Win)
No. 5 Mavericks over No. 4 Clippers (Win)
No. 3 Timberwolves over No. 6 Suns (Win)
No. 1 Thunder over No. 8 Pelicans (Win)
NBA Playoffs Betting Trends
The NBA Finals Odds are coming more into focus with the conclusion of the regular season and VegasInsider Senior Reporter Patrick Everson is on the hardwood with all the market moves from Las Vegas.
Here's everything you need to know about 2023-24 NBA Finals odds: action, movement and betting trends. Check back regularly for updates, and use our BetMGM bonus code to get more when you wager.
2024 NBA Finals Odds, Betting Trends
NBA Playoffs Series Odds & Results
Our NBA Playoffs Series Odds will be updated throughout the playoffs after every result from our NBA Scoreboard, but not before showing the Opening Series Odds for each matchup.
Second Round Matchups
Listed below are the opening series odds for the conference semifinals matchups of the NBA Playoffs for both the Eastern and Western Conference.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Boston vs. TBD
No. 2 New York (-300) vs. No. 6 Indiana (+235)
Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City vs. TBD
No. 2 Denver (-215) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (+172)
First Round Matchups
Listed below are the opening series odds for the first round matchups of the NBA Playoffs for both the Eastern and Western Conference.
Winners Listed in Bold
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Boston (-8000) vs. No. 8 Miami (+1800)
No. 2 New York (-108) vs. No.7 Philadelphia (-120)
No. 3 Milwaukee (-225) vs. No. 6 Indiana (+180)
No. 4 Cleveland (-194) vs. No. 5 Orlando (+156)
Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City (-650) vs. No. 8 New Orleans (+440)
No. 2 Denver (-400) vs. No. 7 L.A. Lakers (+315)
No. 3 Minnesota (-102) vs. No. 6 Phoenix (-120)
No. 4 L.A. Clippers (-102) vs. No. 5 Dallas
Play-In Game Results
No. 8 Miami 112 No. 9 Chicago 91
No. 7 New Orleans 105 No. 9 Sacramento 98
No. 8 L.A. Lakers 110 No. 7 New Orleans 106
No. 9 Sacramento 118 No. 10 Golden State 94
No. 7 Philadelphia 105 No. 8 Miami 104
No. 9 Chicago 131 No. 10 Atlanta 116
Opening Odds to win 2024 NBA Finals
Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2024 NBA Finals prior to the star of the NBA Playoffs, which began on Saturday April 20, 2024.
- Boston Celtics +160
- Denver Nuggets +300
- Dallas Mavericks +1100
- Los Angeles Clippers +1200
- Oklahoma City Thunder +1200
- Milwaukee Bucks +1400
- Philadelphia 76ers +1400
- Minnesota Timberwolves +1800
- Phoenix Suns +1800
- Los Angeles Lakers +2500
- New York Knicks +3000
- Cleveland Cavaliers +5000
- New Orleans Pelicans +6000
- Indiana Pacers +6000
- Miami Heat +10000
- Orlando Magic +15000
Odds to win 2024 NBA Eastern Conference
Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2024 NBA Eastern Conference prior to the star of the NBA Playoffs, which began on Saturday April 20, 2024.
(Seed)
- (1) Boston Celtics -250
- (3) Milwaukee Bucks +900
- (7) Philadelphia 76ers +700
- (2) New York Knicks +1100
- (4) Cleveland Cavaliers +1800
- (6) Indiana Pacers +2500
- (8) Miami Heat +5000
- (5) Orlando Magic +5000
Eastern Conference Odds Comparison
Odds to win 2024 NBA Western Conference
Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2024 NBA Western Conference prior to the star of the NBA Playoffs, which began on Saturday April 20, 2024.
(Seed)
- (3) Denver Nuggets +130
- (5) Dallas Mavericks +600
- (4) Los Angeles Clippers +650
- (1) Oklahoma City Thunder +650
- (2) Minnesota Timberwolves +900
- (6) Phoenix Suns +900
- (7) Los Angeles Lakers +1200
- (8) New Orleans Pelicans +3000
Western Conference Odds Comparison
NBA Betting History
NBA Finals Betting History
The NBA Finals is the pro basketball championship of the National Basketball Association. The game pits the winner of the two conferences, Eastern and Western. The NBA Finals starts in June as two teams square off in a best-of-seven series.
NBA Champions
Last 5 Years
2023: Denver Nuggets
2022: Golden State Warriors
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2020: L.A. Lakers
2019: Toronto Raptors
NBA Eastern Conference Betting History
The Eastern Conference Finals is one of two pro basketball conference series of the National Basketball Association. The winner of this best-of-seven series matchup will advance to The NBA Finals.
NBA Eastern Conference Champions
Last 5 Years
2023: Miami Heat
2022: Boston Celtics
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2020: Miami Heat
2019: Toronto Raptors
NBA Eastern Conference Finals History
NBA Western Conference Betting History
The Western Conference Finals is one of two pro basketball conference series of the National Basketball Association. The winner of this best-of-seven series matchup will advance to The NBA Finals.
NBA Western Conference Champions
Last 5 Years
2023: Denver Nuggets
2022: Golden State Warriors
2021: Phoenix Suns
2020: L.A. Lakers
2019: Golden State Warriors
NBA Western Conference Finals History
NBA PLAYOFFS Matchups
The NBA Matchups are an essential betting tool for the novice or professional, and it has so many features to follow. The NBA regular season spans six months, and it’s rare to see the league take a day off, so analyzing the matchups and betting trends is vital.
The NBA Matchups lists all the NBA in order of Rotation, which is controlled the sportsbooks. Every matchup has a designated Home and Away team, and both are given a rotation number. The games are show the Time as well, which is Eastern Standard Time Zone (ET) on this matchup page.
NBA BETTING TRENDS
As you can see in the chart above, all the NBA Betting Trends from sportsbooks and what users are playing are available.
The Betting Trend Section receives percentages on three categories.
- Spread (Point-Spread Bets)
- Total (Total Bets)
- ML (Moneyline Bets)
The three NBA betting trends are fairly simple to follow, and they’re more volatile as tip-off approaches.
The Spread percentage is for the point-spread, while the ML is for money-line wagers, and that field usually skews heavily to favorites since not many bettors expect huge upsets, especially when the point-spread is high. The Total is the Over/Under, and the Over is always listed on top of the Under. Most bettors lean to favorites and overs.
Keep in mind that it’s not uncommon to see 100% to 0% listed for a particular matchup, especially after the betting line is just made available. These trends fluctuate based on the action and until the volume rises, that’s a common occurrence.
NBA PLAYOFFS SCOREBOARD
The NBA Scoreboard not only provides the scores for the NBA Playoffs, but so much more.
The key feature is the Betting Odds and the NBA Scores provides a consensus line that is created by multiple sportsbooks in the United States. The Betting Odds display which team is the favorite in the matchup and that can be determined with a minus (-) sign followed by a number.
Also, the NBA Scores section features Betting Trends for each matchup and this shows you how much money is being wagered on each team. It’s a great tool if you want to ride or against the betting public. Another great resource is the Line Movements because knowing how a sportsbook adjusts to the action.
If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make bets on today's NBA games.
NBA PLAYOFF FORMAT
"THE FIRST TO WIN 16"
After the field of 16 is determined, the first team to win four best-of-seven series will be deemed the NBA Champion.
In each of the best-of-seven series, the team with the higher seed will have home-court advantage and they will host the first two games.
The lower seed will then host the next two games and the remaining three games, if necessary, will be alternated with the higher seed hosting Game 5 and 7 while the lower seed hosts Game 6.
In simple terms, the NBA Playoffs Format for a best-of-seven can be viewed as 2-2-1-1-1.
NBA PLAYOFF BETTING TYPES
- Money-line: This is an easy one. Simply pick which team will win outright. Say the Lakers are up against Clippers in a series matchup – pick one team over the other to bring home the win. New bettors especially bet on the money-line as it's the simplest way to bet on a game.
- Point-Spread: Like money-line, here you choose a team to win or lose outright. However, the difference lies in guessing how much they win/lose by. This number is a specific points total set by the sportsbooks. Our advice? Check out the team’s average points per game over the season.
- Totals: Also called over/under, this bet determines whether the final score will – combined – will be over or under what the sportsbook thinks.
- Props: This betting market continues to rise in popularity and betting on both specific player and team statistics will increase your viewing pleaure.
- Live Betting: Forgot to put your bet in? No problem, just pull up the latest Live Betting markets or what many also call In-Game Wagering. These wagers can allow you to press, chase or even get out of wagers that you don't want any part of. The options are limitless and the action is Live!
- Futures: Feeling the itch to bet already? Futures can be placed weeks or sometimes months ahead of the game. For example, maybe you think the Boston Celtics will bring it home this year in your NBA Playoffs Picks. Place a bet now ahead of the postseason to get in on the ground floor. Just pay attention as the odds can change, and your choice can even be knocked out!
- Parlays: Called accumulator bets in the UK, parlays are a series of bets. The NBA Playoffs is the perfect time for parlays, where you can lay down a small bet of say $10 across five games. Win all five and you could be looking at a hefty return with your NBA Playoff Picks.
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