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AFC Preseason Report
Head Coach: Wade Phillips – 3rd year
In his first three years as the Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips showed no interest at all in trying to win when Dallas has taken to the road going 1-5. Definitely a strong trend to also follow here this preseason is that the Cowboys do not come with a 100% effort in their dress rehearsal game going a perfect 0-3 under Phillips. A perfect play that fits both scenarios here is when Dallas visits Houston on Aug. 28.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Stephen McGee and Matt Nichols (rookie-Eastern Washington)
New York Giants
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin – 7th year
Head coach Tom Coughlin has always stressed defense when it comes to winning in the regular season. However things sure changed last season starting in the preseason as three of the four Giants games went ‘over’ the total. This trend sure continued in the regular season with 12 of their 16 games seeing the over being the right side. So let’s look for this trend to continue this year especially in their opening game as they open their new stadium against the Jets on Aug. 16.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, Jim Sorgi, Rhett Bomar
Head Coach: Andy Reid – 12th year
Under Andy Reid the Eagles have some solid recent trends that can show a nice profit this preseason. First off the Eagles are 3-9 ATS over the past four years in the preseason, and are also on a 7-0 run with the over being the right side. Plus my favorite Philadelphia preseason play is that Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year going a perfect 0-6 in their opener not winning their first preseason game since 2003. The Eagles open up this year against Jacksonville at home on Aug. 13.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick and Mike Kafka (rookie-Northwestern)
Head Coach: Mike Shananan – 1st year
Everything changes in the preseason for the Redskins with Shananan taking over as head coach. Shananan is one of the winningest coaches in the preseason. Especially in his final preseason game where Shananan has always played this game to win, and is on an 8-1 ATS run. This year’s finale is on Sept. 2 on the road against a Cardinals team that has lost their closing preseason game the last four years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Colt Brennan, Richard Bartel
Head Coach: Lovie Smith – 7th year
The Bears under Lovie Smith Have seen things open up offensively over the past three preseason slates, with the ‘over’ going 9-3. Plus just the opposite can be said in the Bears last preseason game where Lovie just wants to get through this game seeing the ‘under’ go 6-1 over the past seven years. So watch for some high-scoring Chicago games early in the preseason, and then a low-scoring affair in their preseason finale against the Browns on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, Brett Basanez, and Dan LeFevour (rookie-Central Michigan)
Head Coach: Jim Schwartz – 2nd year
Last year in my preseason profit report I told you that the defensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans the last eight seasons Jim Schwartz took over as the new head coach of the 0-16 Lions. Look for Detroit with the new mind set of every new coach with defensive ties to highlight the run and strengthen the defense to play a bunch of fast moving low-scoring games this preseason. Well three of the four Lions’ preseason games went ‘under’ the total. So let’s look for more of the same in Detroit’s preseason games going forward here.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matthew Stafford, Drew Stanton, and Shaun Hill
Green Bay Packers
Head Coach: Jim McCarthy – 5th year
In his first four years as the Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has just been around a .500 preseason coach, so no real advantages to jump on here. However a solid trend has developed that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide open game-plan over the past four years that has seen the ‘over’ go an impressive 12-4 in the preseason. Plus have to add in here is that under McCarthy the Packers really open things up in their final preseason game seeing the ‘over’ go a perfect 4-0 over the past four seasons.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Aaron Rogers, Matt Flynn, and Graham Harrell
Head Coach: Brad Childress – 5th year
In his first four years as the head coach of the Vikings, Brad Childress has started to show us some strong trend that can help us make some money this preseason. It’s obvious that Childress does not care about the opening preseason game as he just goes thru the motions losing three of four openers as head coach. However he sure turns things around going all out in Week 2, seeing the Vikings go a perfect 4-0. So let’s fade them in Week 1 against the Rams, and make them a solid play in Week 2 against the 49ers.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and Joe Webb (rookie-UAB)
Head Coach: Mike Smith – 3rd year
One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last six years the Falcons have gone a perfect 6-0 outscoring their opposition 148-69. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 27 when they play Miami on the road. With the Dolphins playing well in the preseason as of late I can see us getting a real value play on Atlanta in this spot as a nice sized ‘dog.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman and John Parker Wilson
Head Coach: John Fox – 9th year
As John Fox has progressed as head coach the Panthers he has taken the preseason less seriously and is on a 3-10 ATS run as of late. One extremely strong trend that I have uncovered is when the Panthers play their annual final preseason game against the Steelers. In this game both coaches have agreed to just get finished with this game without any injuries and the majority of the plays are on the ground which eats up the clock quickly making for a low-scoring game. In the last four years this game has seen the ‘under’ the right side going a perfect 4-0. Write this one down as these two teams meet once again in Pittsburgh on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen (rookie-Notre Dame), Hunter Cantwell and Tony Pike (rookie-Cincinnati)
New Orleans Saints
Head Coach: Sean Payton – 5th year
With the Saints coming off of their Super Bowl win I don’t see Sean Payton doing much this preseason, especially with the Saints 2-6 exhibition record at home under Payton. However a nice value play for this upcoming preseason is that New Orleans has played a very low-scoring game in their finale going a perfect 5-0 ‘under’ in the last five, four of these under Payton. The only problem here is that they have to play a very high-scoring Titans team this year in their final warm up game.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Chase Daniels and Sean Canfield (rookie-Oregon State)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach: Raheem Morris – 5th year
Raheem Morris took over as head coach of the Buccaneers last year. Prior to this Morris was on the Tampa Bay staff as the secondary coach. So he has been around to be a part of this overwhelming preseason trend. The Buccaneers have one of the top preseason trends that we look forward to every year. Tampa Bay has been a solid 7-1 in their opening preseason game the last eight years. Plus in Morris’s first year as head coach he sure wasn’t interested in playing defense allowing 87 in the Buccaneers’ four preseason games with three of them easily going ‘over’ the total, something to again watch for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, Rudy Carpenter and Jevan Snead (rookie-Mississippi)
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt – 4th year
In his three years as head coach of the Cardinals Ken Whisenhunt has given as some outstanding preseason trends to make some money with this year. Whisenhunt has shown no interest in winning his first or last preseason games going a perfect 0-6. So this year’s two plays to fade the Cardinals are against Houston on Aug. 14 and against the Redskins on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Leinatt, Derek Anderson, Max Hall (rookie-BYU) and John Skelton (rookie-Fordham)
San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach: Mike Singletary – 4th year
One thing you can sure say about the 49ers and that’s they sure show up in their dress rehearsal game over the past three seasons going a perfect 3-0 against the spread, and all three were as a underdog. This year’s opponent in their dress rehearsal game will be an Oakland Raiders team that has been outscored 69-7 the past two years when they play all their regulars in Week 3.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Alex Smith, David Carr, Nate Davis, and Jarret Brown (rookie-West Virginia)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll – 1st year
Even though this will be Pete Carroll’s first year as head coach of the Seahawks. It’s hard to go against one of the strongest current preseason trends as Seattle is on a perfect 10-0 ATS run. If you see the Seahawks start fast under Carroll jump on them the rest of the preseason especially with this very solid quarterback rotation.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst and J.P. Losman
St Louis Rams
Head Coach: Steve Spagnuolo – 2nd year
With Steve Spagnuolo taking over as head coach of the Rams last season he immediately installed the old Giants winning ways in the preseason, winning three games as an outright underdog. Let’s look for this trend to continue this year as Spagnuolo installs more of his kind of players on the St Louis roster.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: A.J. Feely, Sam Bradford, Keith Null, and Thaddeus Lewis (rookie-Duke)