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NFL Win Total Betting Updates

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Editor’s Note: The below piece covers NFL Win Total Updates at Las Vegas properties, Cantor, MGM and LVH between May 24 and May 27.

Update – Sunday May, 27 (4:00 p.m. PT)

The LVH Super Book opened their NFL season win totals Sunday afternoon, a few days after Cantor Gaming and MGM Resorts released theirs this past week. Despite the two other books currently shaping the market, the LVH went their own way with some pretty different numbers. They know exactly who they want their first bets taken to be on and they'll get it.

Some of the major differences the LVH has is the Patriots with a high total of 12 ½ wins under-120, the Browns set at the lowest number of 4 ½ over-120 and the Broncos at 8 ½ wins over-150. The LVH has both the highest and lowest total posted in Las Vegas.

Lucky's initially opened the Broncos at 8 ½ wins when the deal was made to get Peyton Manning. Most of the action Lucky's took at that time were small bets on the Broncos, but they amounted to a pretty large disparity between over and under. Cantor opened Denver at 9 ½ wins and MGM at 9 wins.

2012 NFL Season Win Totals
Team LVH Opening Win Total
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 OVER +110 UNDER -130
Atlanta Falcons 9.0 OVER -130 UNDER +110
Baltimore Ravens 10.0 OVER +110 UNDER -130
Buffalo Bills 7.5 OVER +110 UNDER -130
Carolina Panthers 7.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN
Chicago Bear 9.0 OVER -110 UNDER -110
Cincinnati Bengals 8.0 OVER -110 UNDER -110
Cleveland Browns 4.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 OVER -140 UNDER +120
Denver Broncos 8.5 OVER -150 UNDER +130
Detroit Lions 9.0 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN
Green Bay Packers 12.0 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN
Houston Texans 9.5 OVER -145 UNDER +125
Indianapolis Colts 5.0 OVER -130 UNDER +110
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.0 OVER +120 UNDER -140
Kansas City Chiefs 8.0 OVER +110 UNDER -130
Miami Dolphins 7.5 OVER EVEN UNDER -120
Minnesota Vikings 6.0 OVER EVEN UNDER -120
New England Patriots 12.5 OVER EVEN UNDER -120
New Orleans Saints 9.5 OVER -110 UNDER -110
New York Giants 8.5 OVER -130 UNDER +110
New York Jets 8.5 OVER -145 UNDER +125
Oakland Raiders 7.5 OVER +130 UNDER -150
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER +140 UNDER -160
San Diego Chargers 9.0 OVER +110 UNDER -130
San Francisco 49ers 9.5 OVER -140 UNDER +120
Seattle Seahawks 7.0 OVER +120 UNDER -140
St. Louis Rams 5.5 OVER +115 UNDER -135
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.0 OVER -155 UNDER +135
Tennessee Titans 7.5 OVER +115 UNDER -135
Washington Redskins 6.0 OVER EVEN UNDER -120

Update – Thursday May, 24 (1:00 p.m. PT)

MGM Resorts were the second group of Las Vegas sports books to post NFL season win totals for the 2012 campaign, one day after Cantor Gaming posted theirs on Wednesday. Despite six of the Cantor numbers running wild in Wednesday’s action, it’s apparent that MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood stayed strong with the numbers he and his staff created with little regard for what was posted in the city already.

Rood posted several huge differences compared to Cantor and also used a .20 cent line compared to the .30 cent split Cantor was offering. One of the numbers that ran yesterday at Cantor was the Panthers being bet OVER 7 ½ wins until settling at over-135. The bettors who pushed the number probably wish they could have waited a day because MGM Resorts posted 7 under-120.

Win total bettors aren't buying Greg Schiano and the Bucs this season.  
Win total bettors aren't buying Greg Schiano and the Bucs this season. (Getty Images)  

But that’s the beauty about being first like Cantor was. They get action on teams with no other barometer to go off of. It’s just one-on-one, sports book vs. bettor with no market number telling the bettor what is a good play or not.

“That’s kind of why we started putting the totals out so early,” said Rood who set a limit of $5,000 on the NFL totals. “We got tired of just getting scalp plays, so we thought we would open it earlier and get more volume that was the type of action we wanted."

Rood's books did very well on the season wins last season, but estimates that close to 50% of all the totals they lost came from bettors just scalping numbers.

“The best thing that has come out of it all is that we generate huge action on the totals that makes it similar to the type we receive in a regular season week, so it’s almost like having a Week 18 for us.”

Hardly any of the numbers between the sports book chains are the same. Of the 32 teams posted, MGM and Cantor have the same number on only seven teams. Most of the differences are a half-point, but in the case of three teams, it’s a whole game difference.

Cantor posted 9 over-120 on the Falcons while MGM opened with 10 under-120. Cantor opened the Bengals at 7 ½ over-130 and MGM thought it should be higher and opened 8 ½ under-120. Cantor opened the Titans 7 over-130 and MGM went with 8 under-120.

Bettors have a huge angle to play here with middle opportunities. They can bet both sides and have a great shot at free-money by pushing on one team and winning the other with the two most probable records teams like the Falcons and Titans might end up having with this year. Should the Bengals finish 8-8, bettors with the OVER at Cantor win, and bettors with the UNDER at MGM win. No pushes here; two winners at the most probable record the Bengals will finish with.

If looking to play the Bengals with that angle, you'd better hurry. Because as Jerry Glanville said, both those numbers will be available "NFL...not for long.”

The early action at MGM this afternoon came on the Buccaneers UNDER just as it did at Cantor on Wednesday, except bettors got the extra half-win at MGM. If the Bucs win 6 games, they’ll push at Cantor and win at MGM.

Bettors also jumped on the Panthers OVER 7 wins just as they had done at Cantor except they got a better number today at MGM by a half-game.

The next wave of action will be at the LVH Super Book this weekend. We’ll have more updates as the action occurs.

2012 NFL Season Win Totals
Team MGM Grand Opening Win Total Cantor Opening Win Total
New England Patriots 11½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 12 OVER (-120) UNDER (-110)
Green Bay Packers 12 OVER (+100) (UNDER -120) 12 OVER (-125) UNDER (-105)
Philadelphia Eagles 10½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 10 OVER (-135) UNDER (+105)
Houston Texans 10½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 10 OVER (-140) UNDER (+110)
San Francisco 49ers OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 10 OVER (+105) UNDER (-135)
New Orleans Saints OVER (-135) UNDER (+115) 10 OVER (-125) UNDER (-105)
Baltimore Ravens 10 OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 10 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10½ OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 10 OVER (-125) UNDER (-105)
Detroit Lions 9½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 9½ OVER (+105) UNDER (-135)
San Diego Chargers 9 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 9 OVER (-130) UNDER (EVEN)
Denver Broncos 9 OVER (-135) UNDER (+115) 9½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
New York Giants 9 OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 9½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Chicago Bears 9 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 8½ OVER (-135) UNDER (+105)
Atlanta Falcons 10 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 9 OVER (+105) UNDER (-135)
New York Jets 8½ OVER (-145) UNDER (+125) 8½ OVER (-115) UNDER (-115)
Dallas Cowboys 9 OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 8½ OVER (-125) UNDER (-105)
Kansas City Chiefs OVER (-120) UNDER (+100) 8 OVER (-120) UNDER (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 7½ OVER (-130) UNDER (EVEN)
Miami Dolphins 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 7½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Carolina Panthers 7 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 7½ OVER (-115) UNDER (-115)
Buffalo Bills 7 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Seattle Seahawks OVER (-120) UNDER (+100) 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Tennessee Titans 8 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 7 OVER (-130) UNDER (EVEN)
Oakland Raiders OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Arizona Cardinals 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Washington Redskins 6½ OVER (-125) UNDER (+105) 6½ OVER (EVEN) UNDER (-130)
Minnesota Vikings 6 OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 6 OVER (EVEN) UNDER (-130)
St. Louis Rams OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 6 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER (-110) UNDER (-110) 6 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120)
Indianapolis Colts 5 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 5½ OVER (+105) UNDER (-135)
Jacksonville Jaguars 5 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 5½ OVER (+105) UNDER (-135)
Cleveland Browns 6 OVER (+100) UNDER (-120) 5½ OVER (EVEN) UNDER (-130)

Update – Wednesday May, 23 (1:30 p.m. PT)

The Broncos were one of the two most heavily bet teams, along with the Buccaneers, when Cantor Gaming sports books first opened their NFL Season win totals on Wednesday. Both teams were bet UNDER their posted total, which has the Broncos opening at 9 ½ wins under-120.

Sharp bettors couldn’t get enough of the UNDER and bet Denver all the way down to under-170. Part of the reason for thinking the Broncos won’t have a better record than last season rests with their schedule, the most difficult of any team this season. Not only do the Broncos have to play six tough games within the always competitive AFC West, but seven of their other 10 games are against teams that made the playoffs last season.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos better get as sharp as they can during training camp and preseason because things could get bad in a hurry if they’re not. Manning has little time to waste as the Broncos home opener is against the Steelers, not exactly the type of defense a new offense wants to face.

Following the Steelers, Denver has to play at Atlanta and then come back home to play the Texans in Week 3. It’s quite possible that by the time Manning finally gets his game timing down that Denver could be 0-3.

In Week 5 the Broncos play at New England, Week 8 is against the Saints, Week 9 at Cincinnati, Week 10 at Carolina and Week 15 at Baltimore. Those are all games that Denver could lose that no one would say they 'didn’t see that coming'.

Carolina’s team gets upgraded in value just because they were the only team to be bet multiple times OVER the total of 7 ½ wins. Denver losing at Carolina this season would not be a shock. Cantor’s Week 10 line for the game opened at a pick’em.

When you mix in their six divisional games, which are always close, it would be unreasonable to think Denver could win all three on the road as they did last season. A 4-2 record looks very possible, but so does 3-3.

So when you break down the Broncos schedule, an 8-8 record with maybe 9-7 being the high point, it’s easier to understand why bettors went so heavy on the Broncos UNDER.

If the Broncos managed to win 10 or more games with that schedule, they would then have to be considered one of the Super Bowl favorites.

Update – Wednesday May, 23 (11:30 a.m. PT)

The action came in fast and strong this morning when Cantor Gaming gave Las Vegas bettors their first glimpse of the NFL by releasing the 2012 season win totals on Wednesday. Cantor is taking a good size bet with a $3,000 limit on the totals and according to sports book director Mike Colbert, a bunch of those limits plays shuffled the opening numbers on a handful of teams.

Cam Newton and the Panthers have received extra attention in Vegas.  
Cam Newton and the Panthers have received extra attention in Vegas. (AP Images)  

“We had multiple wagers come in early on a few teams, mostly on the under,” said Colbert from his M Resort and Spa office. “The largest line movement we’ve had thus far (11:00am PT) has been bettors taking the under on the Broncos and Buccaneers. The Broncos went from 9 ½ under-120 to under -170 and the Bucs went from 6 under-120 to under-170.”

A few of the other early plays that came in with less enthusiasm, but still multiple times, was the Saints being bet from 10 over-125 to under-125. The Cardinals were bet from 7 under-120 to under-140 and the Chiefs went from 8 under-110 to under-125.

The only team that saw multiple limit wagers betting OVER the total was Cam Newton’s Panthers who went from 7 ½ over-115 to over-135.

“I was a little surprised by the Saints being bet under,” said Colbert, “but I’m really shocked at the type of action that came in on the Broncos under.”

The MGM Resort sports books will open their NFL season win totals tomorrow, and not Monday as previously reported. The LVH Super Book should also have their numbers posted over the weekend.

When those two other numbers go up, that is where the real fun starts. The disparity between their numbers will slowly get them all close to each other by the bettors and that will be the market number that most of the other sports books will eventually post.

We’ll keep you updated along the way with all the action that occurs.

Update – Wednesday May, 23 (8:30 a.m. PT)

On Wednesday morning, Cantor Gaming sports books in Las Vegas became the first book in the state to offer NFL Season win totals. Sports books like the LVH Super Book and MGM Resorts are scheduled to have their totals posted by Memorial Day.

The Patriots and Packers both open up with the highest totals at 12 wins each with a slight shade on the money to the OVER. The worst expected teams are the Colts, Jaguars, and Browns at 5 ½ wins with a heavy shade on the money to the UNDER.

Six teams have 10 wins posted while the 21 other teams are all bunched together from 9 ½ to 6 wins. Those 21 teams in the middle is where the bulk of the action will come in on. It's those teams that often show the greatest disparity from what the sharp player thinks a team will do and the what the sports book posts.

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By being the first to post the season wins, it allows for Cantor Gaming to get action from bettors who have a strong opinion on what teams will do rather than getting wagers from those who are scalping prices from different numbers at other sports books. Once the LVH and MGM post their numbers, there will be a frenzy of action from bettors trying to set up a middle for themselves playing both sides at different books.

Because the totals are so small compared to what we see posted in baseball and the NBA, every half-a-win and every cent on the over-under is analyzed by the sharpest minds with the goal of finding an edge. Usually there are about six to seven teams the sharp players already have pegged that they project will have a much improved season from 2011 or show a major decline.

One of those teams last season was the Cincinnati Bengals who came into 2011 with rookie quarterback Andy Dalton as their starter. In 2010 the Bengals won only four games, but when the first totals were posted in town by MGM Resorts, the Bengals were listed at 7 ½ wins for 2011.

Most bettors had the feeling the Bengals would be slightly better than 2010, but not better than 6 wins. This number was pummeled all the way down to 6 ½ and eventually 6 after all the other books posted their numbers, most of which reluctantly started with 7 wins only because MGM Resorts set the market so high. The Bengals finished 9-7 and made the playoffs last season.

This year, Cantor Gaming opened the Bengals at 7 ½ wins, OVER -130.

Because of Peyton Manning's arrival in Denver, there are sure to be a lot of differing opinions on their total of 9 ½ wins. They have the highest total posted among the AFC West teams, but not by much. The Chargers are set at 9 wins, the Chiefs at 8 and the Raiders at 7. Denver did win their division last year, but will be running a completely different offensive system to accentuate the talents of Manning.

We'll update in a couple of days how the first wave of action went at Cantor Gaming and then also detail the type of action that came in everywhere in town once LVH and MGM posted their totals.

2012 NFL Season Win Totals
Team Win Total 2011 Record 2010 Record
** New England Patriots 12 OVER (-120) UNDER (-110) 13-3 14-2
** Green Bay Packers 12 OVER (-125) UNDER (-105) 15-1 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles 10 OVER (-135) UNDER (+105) 8-8 10-6
** Houston Texans 10 OVER (-140) UNDER (+110) 10-6 6-10
** San Francisco 49ers 10 OVER (+105) UNDER (-135) 13-3 6-10
** New Orleans Saints 10 OVER (-125) UNDER (-105) 13-3 11-5
** Baltimore Ravens 10 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 12-4 12-4
** Pittsburgh Steelers 10 OVER (-125) UNDER (-105) 12-4 12-4
** Detroit Lions 9½ OVER (+105) UNDER (-135) 10-6 6-10
San Diego Chargers 9 OVER (-130) UNDER (EVEN) 8-8 9-7
** Denver Broncos 9½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 8-8 4-12
** New York Giants 9½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 9-7 10-6
Chicago Bears 8½ OVER (-135) UNDER (+105) 8-8 11-5
** Atlanta Falcons 9 OVER (+105) UNDER (-135) 10-6 13-3
New York Jets 8½ OVER (-115) UNDER (-115) 8-8 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 8½ OVER (-125) UNDER (-105) 8-8 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs 8 OVER (-120) UNDER (-110) 7-9 10-6
** Cincinnati Bengals 7½ OVER (-130) UNDER (EVEN) 9-7 4-12
Miami Dolphins 7½ OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 6-10 7-9
Carolina Panthers 7½ OVER (-115) UNDER (-115) 6-10 2-14
Buffalo Bills 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 6-10 4-12
Seattle Seahawks 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 7-9 7-9
Tennessee Titans 7 OVER (-130) UNDER (EVEN) 9-7 6-10
Oakland Raiders 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 8-8 8-8
Arizona Cardinals 7 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 8-8 5-11
Washington Redskins 6½ OVER (EVEN) UNDER (-130) 5-11 6-10
Minnesota Vikings 6 OVER (EVEN) UNDER (-130) 3-13 6-10
St. Louis Rams 6 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 2-14 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 OVER (-110) UNDER (-120) 4-12 10-6
Indianapolis Colts 5½ OVER (+105) UNDER (-135) 2-14 10-6
Jacksonville Jaguars 5½ OVER (+105) UNDER (-135) 5-11 8-8
Cleveland Browns 5½ OVER (EVEN) UNDER (-130) 4-12 5-11
** Team made playoffs in 2011 season

  
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