Week 2 Tip Sheet
September 12, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers hit 60% in Week 1 as he has circled four winners for Sunday's Week 2 card. Get his guaranteed winner right here on VegasInsider.com.
Chargers at Eagles (-7 ½, 55) - 1:00 PM EST
Week 1 Results:
-- Chargers lost to Texans, 31-28 as five-point home underdogs. San Diego blew a 28-7 lead in the second half, as the Bolts fell on a last-second field goal.
-- Eagles beat Redskins, 33-27 as four-point road underdogs. Philadelphia jumped out to a 26-7 halftime edge, while LeSean McCoy rushed for a game-high 184 yards and a touchdown.
San Diego knocked off Philadelphia, 31-23 to cash as one-point home favorites in 2009, even though Donovan McNabb threw for 450 yards for the Eagles. The Chargers last won in Philadelphia back in 1995, as San Diego is making just its fourth trip to the City of Brotherly Love in this span.
The Eagles have won six of their last eight home games against AFC opponents since 2009, but Philadelphia owns a 3-5 ATS record in this stretch. In the last seven opportunities as a favorite of at least seven points, the Eagles have compiled a 1-6 ATS mark.
The Chargers cashed in four of six games as a road underdog last season, while posting a 2-2 SU/ATS record in contests played in the Eastern Time Zone. San Diego hasn't had much luck against NFC foes on the road with an 0-6 SU/ATS record since 2010, including three losses by double-digits.
Rams at Falcons (-6 ½, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Week 1 Results:
-- Rams rallied past the Cardinals, 27-24, but failed to cover as 3 ½-point home favorites. St. Louis overcame a 24-13 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Arizona for the third straight time.
-- Falcons fell to the Saints, 23-17 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Atlanta jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but scored only seven points in the final three quarters as the Falcons suffered their first road underdog loss since the 2011 playoffs against the Giants.
Atlanta drilled St. Louis at the Edward Jones Dome, 34-17 back in 2010 as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' The Falcons scored the final 18 points of the game after trailing, 17-16 in the third quarter, as Atlanta racked up 391 yards of offense. Atlanta has won each of the last three meetings at the Georgia Dome since 2004, but only one of those victories came with Matt Ryan at quarterback.
Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams have put together a solid 11-3 ATS record in the underdog role, including a 7-2 ATS mark on the highway. Since the start of last season, St. Louis is 5-2 ATS off a win, while winning three of its past four contests straight-up (at Arizona, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay).
The Falcons have bounced back nicely off a loss since 2009, winning 13 straight games in this role, while posting a 10-3 ATS record. However, Atlanta failed to cover all three times last season at the Georgia Dome when laying at least six points.
Redskins at Packers (-7, 49 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Week 1 Results:
-- Redskins lost to Eagles, 33-27 as four-point home favorites. The defeat was the second in the last seven divisional contests for Washington, while the team cashed their second 'over' at home since last November.
-- Packers fell to the 49ers, 34-28 as five-point road underdogs. Green Bay went back and forth with San Francisco by exchanging touchdowns for the first three quarters, but San Francisco pulled away by scoring the final 10 points of the contest.
Washington squeezed by Green Bay in overtime, 16-13 as 2 ½-point home underdogs at FedEx Field in 2010. The Redskins overcame an early 10-0 deficit to stun a Packers' squad that would eventually win the Super Bowl that season. Washington makes its first visit to Lambeau Field since a 17-14 defeat in 2007.
The Redskins made money as a road underdog last season with a 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU mark when receiving points away from the Nation's Capital. In Robert Griffin III's rookie season, Washington won all three games off a home loss, including outright underdog victories over Tampa Bay and Minnesota.
Green Bay has profited nicely at Lambeau Field since 2010 by compiling a 17-8 ATS record at home, including a 6-3 ATS mark last season. The Packers haven't suffered consecutive losses since 2010, while going 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS at home off a defeat since December 2008.
Cowboys at Chiefs (-3, 46 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Week 1 Results:
-- Cowboys held off the Giants, 36-31 to cash as 3 ½-point home favorites. Dallas scored two touchdowns on the defensive side and created six turnovers, but allowed New York to register 478 yards of offense.
-- Chiefs destroyed the Jaguars, 28-2 as 3 ½-point away favorites. Kansas City allowed an early safety on a blocked punt out of the end zone, but the Chiefs scored four unanswered touchdowns for their second opening week win since 2006.
Dallas got by Kansas City in overtime at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-20, but the Chiefs cashed as seven-point underdogs. The Cowboys rallied from a 10-point deficit to take a 20-13 lead with two minutes remaining, but the Chiefs forced overtime with a late touchdown. Miles Austin finished off a 250-yard performance with a 60-yard touchdown catch from Tony Romo to win it for the Cowboys.
The Cowboys won outright as road underdogs last season against the Giants and Bengals, while cashing in a two-point defeat at Baltimore. Dallas has put together a 6-0 ATS record in the last six road games against AFC competition since 2010 with five of those contests decided by four points or less.
The Chiefs have failed to cover as a home favorite in their last six tries since 2010, while not even picking up a straight-up victory in this span (four losses by double-digits). However, Kansas City is 5-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead against NFC opponents the past three seasons.
Broncos (-4 ½, 54 ½) at Giants - 4:25 PM EST
Week 1 Results:
-- Broncos took care of the Ravens, 49-27 as 7 ½-point home favorites to kick off the season. Peyton Manning tossed a career-high seven touchdown passes, which included five TD tosses in the second half.
-- Giants were tripped up by the Cowboys, 36-31 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak by New York at Dallas, while the last five meetings in Texas have sailed 'over' the total.
The Broncos shocked the Giants on Thanksgiving in 2009 with a 26-6 drubbing of New York as five-point home underdogs. The loss was the nail in the coffin for a New York club that began that season at 5-0, while the win for the Broncos snapped a four-game skid.
Denver covered four of five games in Peyton Manning's first season as a road favorite, while scoring at least 26 points four times. The Broncos have won just two of their last eight away games against NFC competition, but that also included losses with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow at quarterback.
The Giants are listed as a home underdog for just the second time since 2009, as New York cashed as a seven-point 'dog in a 38-35 defeat to Green Bay in 2011. New York has won six of nine home openers under Tom Coughlin, but one of those defeats came to Manning and the Colts to kick off the 2006 season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org
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14-1 Streak, 5-0 G-Plays, 8-1 Totals
14-3 L2 Sun., 8-2 G-Plays, +2,243
8-0 L8 G-Plays, 12-6 L18 Picks
8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
7-0 L2 Sundays, 17-5 L6 Sundays
10-3 Sun., 28-11 Run, 6-0 Totals
7 Wins in a Row, 4-1 L5 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,169 TY
11-4 Week 6, 30-13 L43 Totals
4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-6 L18 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
7-3 L2 Sundays, +815 Overall
4-1 Sun., 12-7 L19, 4-2 G-Plays
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 7-2 L9 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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