2018 Rookie Props
April 30, 2018
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With the NFL Draft in the rear view mirror, we can now look at how some of the rookies will do in the 2018-2019 NFL regular season. Much of the focus in the NFL Draft was on quarterbacks and most of the rookie props available at BetDSI.eu focus on the rookie quarterbacks.
Let’s look at the rookie props available at BetDSI.eu and make some predictions.
Total rookie quarterbacks to start Week 1 of 2018-19 regular season
Over 1.5 (+150)
Under 1.5 (-180)
The under is a solid favorite on this prop and it is easy to see why. Unless there is an injury to a current starting quarterback there may not be any rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1. The one rookie quarterback who might start is Josh Allen in Buffalo but he has to beat out AJ McCarron for the starting job. Baker Mayfield was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, as he went to the Cleveland Browns, but he probably won’t win the starting job right away, as Tyrod Taylor is in front of him. Both Allen and Mayfield would have to start in Week 1 for this prop to go Over 1.5 or something else would need to happen. The other rookie quarterbacks would need an injury to start, and it is possible, especially in Arizona where Sam Bradford is an injury waiting to happen. Josh Rosen is the heir apparent for the Cardinals and it is probably only a matter of time before he is their starting quarterback.
Rookie quarterback to start first during 2018-19 regular season(same week results in no action)
Josh Allen +150
Baker Mayfield +250
Josh Rosen +450
Sam Darnold +750
Lamar Jackson +1200
We just talked about Rosen with the Cardinals and he may have the most value of any quarterback on this list. Allen is the favorite and his competition is just McCarron in Buffalo, but Rosen could end up starting Week 1 if Bradford isn’t healthy and in recent seasons Bradford hasn’t been healthy.
Will any rookie quarterback be benched during 2018-19 regular season?(non-injury related)
The No on this prop looks to have some good value at -150. There is a good chance that none of the rookie quarterbacks start in Week 1, so that means for the Yes to cash, a rookie would have to get benched after taking over for the starter. That seems extremely unlikely, as when a team gives the starting job to a rookie quarterback they rarely go back to their previous starter.
Will Baker Mayfield start any game during 2018-19 regular season?
It seems almost a given that Mayfield is going to get a chance to be the starting quarterback for Cleveland at some point during the 2018-2019 season. Taylor is a competent quarterback but he doesn’t make big plays, isn’t flashy, and doesn’t put people in the seats. The Browns are going to want to see their No. 1 pick at starting quarterback at some point this season. Laying -400 is tough to do, but it is the only way to go with this prop.
Will Sam Darnold start any game during 2018-19 regular season?
This prop has the Yes heavily favored, but it is nowhere near as sure as the previous one on Mayfield. Darnold has two quarterbacks to deal with in New York, as he has to get past Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater. The Jets may not be any good, so perhaps Darnold will get his chance at some point this season, but laying -350 doesn’t seem like a good idea.
Will Josh Allen start any game during 2018-19 regular season?
As we noted earlier, Allen just has to get past AJ McCarron to win the starting job in Buffalo. The price is very high at -500, but it seems very likely that Allen will start at some point this season.
Will Josh Rosen start any game during 2018-19 regular season?
This prop is all about injury, as an injury to Bradford would open the door for Rosen to get the starting job. Can you see Bradford playing all 16 games this season? The Yes is a solid bet on this prop.
Will Lamar Jackson start any game during 2018-19 regular season?
This prop is similar in some respects to the previous prop, as it seems unlikely that Jackson will get a chance unless Joe Flacco gets hurt. Perhaps the Ravens would give Jackson a look late in the season if they are out of playoff contention. This seems like a prop to avoid.
Most passing yards during 2018-19 regular season
Baker Mayfield +125
Josh Allen +185
Josh Rosen +300
Sam Darnold +500
This prop is more of a crapshoot, as you are trying to predict which quarterback will win the starting job first. Once again, Rosen may be the best value.
Most passing touchdowns during 2018-19 regular season
Baker Mayfield +150
Josh Allen +185
Josh Rosen +260
Sam Darnold +450
This prop is pretty much the same, as the last one, as the quarterback that throws for the most yards is likely to throw for the most touchdowns.
Will Saquon Barkley rush for 1,000 yards during 2018-19 regular season?
The Giants are expected to give Barkley a big workload in his rookie season, so it would not be a surprise if he rushed for more than 1,000 yards this season. The Yes looks to be a solid value at -130.
Most rushing yards during 2018-19 regular season
Saquon Barkley -110
Rashaad Penny +150
Sony Michel +325
The value on this prop is all on Rashaad Penny at +150. The Seahawks want to run the ball and Penny is a big back who can handle a lot of work. Barkley is going to have a good season, but Penny might just end up with more yards.
Most receiving yards during 2018-19 regular season
D.J. Moore -140
Calvin Ridley +110
The value on this prop is on Ridley, as he goes to an offense in Atlanta that features the pass, while Moore is with an offense in Carolina that is more run-based.
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