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Opening Line Report – Week 12

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Winning Football Picks from Joe Williams for the 2018 NFL regular season. Click to win!
We're heading into the fourth quarter of the National Football League regular season, but many fans won't soon forget the Monday nighter between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Rams. The two teams combined for 105 points, the highest-scoring MNF game ever, and the third-highest scoring game in NFL history. It's a new day and age of football, with the games resembling video-game football, or college football. Some fans love it, old school fans hate it. Bettors are still trying to figure out what's what. The Chiefs-Rams game closed with the highest total (63) since those sorts of things have been tracked, and it was just second time a game closed over 60 points. This is the first time the total went 'over' when that high, too.

We're headed into a good time in the season, with three NFL games on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Can you believe the holiday season is officially here? Hopefully everyone has safe travels and a great Thanksgiving with family, friends, etc. Let's get started!

(Consensus Odds as of Tuesday)

Thursday, Nov. 22

Chicago Bears (-4, 45) at Detroit Lions

These teams just met on Nov. 11 in Chicago with the Bears covering a seven-point number at home, 34-22. The Bears have covered four in a row heading into this battle, but QB Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) is reportedly dealing with an injury, so that's something to watch heading into Thursday's game. The total has been on the move down, going from 46 to 45 in the matter of hours at Atlantis.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 40.5)

The Redskins lost QB Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury, as he snapped his fibula and tibia. Not only is he out for the season, but it's no certainty he'll be back. The line opened at -7 at Jerry's Nugget, moving up to -7.5. That seems to be the sweet spot right now, as Southpoint and Stratosphere opened the game at -8, and dropped it to -7.5.
 
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13.5, 59.5)

This game opened and has stayed -13 at most shop, with Westgate SuperBook opening the game at -12, before it quickly moved up to -13. The total is on the move, too, going from 59 to 60 according to CG Technology. It's likely to eclipse the 60-point barrier, perhaps the third time in NFL history a line closed over 60. It would also be the second time in two weeks this season. Again, it's a new day, and this isn't your grandfather's NFL. 

Sunday, Nov. 25

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 37.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Jaguars announced they're sticking with QB Blake Bortles. [...] opened the game at -5, and it quickly moved to -4 within an hour, and is now down to -3 as of Tuesday overnight. That's about where the Vegas shops have this game, as a majority have the game at a field goal, with the likes of Mirage-MGM, Southpoint and Stations have the game at -3 1/2. The total has not had any movement at any of the Vegas shops as of yet, staying at 37 1/2, or the opposite of the Chiefs-Rams on Monday.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 42.5)

The Raiders picked up a much-needed win last week in Arizona despite squabbling by head coach Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr. Now, they search for a second consecutive victory on the road. If you shop around the line can vary on this one. Atlantis opened the game at -10 1/2, while Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -11 1/2, dropping down a half-point during the course of Monday. Westgate SuperBook is down from an open of -11, and briefly up to -11 1/2, down to -10 1/2 in less than 24 hours.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 55)

The Buccaneers have dropped seven of their past eight outings, and they're just 1-6-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is 8-2, too, so there might be a lot of interest in this one despite the two teams plodding along with losing records. If you're really feeling the home team, you can catch -3 at Treasure Island. [...] opened the game at 52 1/2, and the money poured in, bumping it quickly to 54, as high as 55 1/2, and back down to 55. Look for more movement during the course of the week.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 46)

The Eagles were curb-stomped down in New Orleans, now they look to take out their frustration on the Giants. New York has actually won two in a row, showing signs of life for the first time this season. Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -5 and it moved to -6 in the matter of an afternoon. If you're still feeling the Eagles, TI still had the game at -5 as of Tuesday overnight.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 47.5)

The Browns and Bengals combined for 106 back on Nov. 28, 2004, which is the second-highest scoring game in NFL history, just ahead of Monday's Chiefs-Rams game. The teams also combined for 96 points in 2007 in the Ohio Bowl. This year Vegas isn't expecting quite as many fireworks. In fact, there has been very little movement to this point, staying put at 47 1/2 at most shops.

New England Patriots (-9.5, 46) at New York Jets

The Patriots roll into New Jersey after a bye, but this has been a tough spot for New England. The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in the past five trips to visit the Jets, and they're just 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, too, with the 'under' cashing in four straight meetings. The Strat opened the game at -8 1/2, moving to -9 1/2 in less than 24 hours. 

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 47.5)

The Panthers dropped the ball in Detroit, losing a 20-19 decision after going for two and failing in the final minute. Now, they return home to face the Seahawks, who travel a long way to be there. Bettors appears to be buying the Cats, especially at Westgate SuperBook, going from -3 to -3 1/2, as well as at William Hill. There just hasn't been a lot of movement yet, but most are feeling a rebound from QB Cam Newton and company at home.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 50.5)

The Dolphins are coming off a bye, and there is a little uncertainty here as QB Ryan Tannehill could be back from injury. QB Andrew Luck has tossed three or more touchdowns in seven straight games, as he is officially back. The line has settled into the neighborhood of -9 1/2 at a lot of shops, while rising to -10 at Atlantis, Coasts and Mirage-MGM, but due to Tannehill's situation the line could be on the move.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-12, 45)

This Cardinals were dumped at home by the Raiders at the gun, while the Chargers were stunned by the Broncos at home. The Bolts look to rebound and bettors have been feeling them a little. Jerry's Nugget opened the game at -11 1/2, and it's up to -12 there. Southpoint opened at -11 1/2, and it quickly rose to -12 1/2 during the course of the afternoon. The Strat, TI and Westgate also bumped up the game a half-point, as the money comes in on the Chargers early on.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 46.5) at Denver Broncos

The Steelers won a squeaker in Jacksonville at sea level, now go a mile high in Denver against a Broncos team coming off an upset win of the Chargers. There is some early movement on the home team, as Caesars/Harrah's, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Southpoint and the Strat opened the game at -3 1/2, but it slipped to -3. Westgate opened the game at -4 1/2, and it's now in line with everyone else at -3. People are feeling the Broncos early on.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 47.5)

The Packers-Vikings were flexed into the Sunday Night Football spot, and it's an important game in the NFC North. These teams tied in the first meeting in Green Bay in September. There has been a lot of movement early on, and bettors seem to like the Pack. Southpoint opened the game at -4 1/2, and the line quickly tumbled to -3 1/2. The same holds true at Westgate and William Hill, moving down a full point to - 3 1/2 within 24 hours, too. 

Monday, Nov. 26

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6, 41.5)

The Titans and Texans have a tough act to follow after Monday's epic offensive showcase in L.A. But there will be a return to normalcy, as this game has a total 22 points less than the close of last week's game. That's insane, as more than three fewer touchdowns are expected in this AFC South showdown. [...] is offering this game at -6, but it's one of just a few places to make the game available. QB Marcus Mariota is a question mark, and the game is OFF at many Vegas shops until there is some clarity on that situation.





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