NFL Draft Props
April 1, 2019
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First Look at NFL Draft Props
One of the biggest questions heading into the 2019 NFL Draft is where Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray will be drafted. Many people believe that he will go first overall to the Arizona Cardinals, but nothing is locked in stone and it could be that Arizona surprises everyone and takes Ohio State pass rusher Nick Bosa. Let’s look at some of the latest NFL Draft props.
The 2019 NFL Draft takes place on Thursday, April 25 through Saturday, April 27. The first round will be on Thursday, rounds two and three will be on Friday and rounds four through seven will be on Saturday.
Check out the latest NFL Draft odds at BetDSI.eu.
Kyler Murray Draft Position
2.5 (over +350)
2.5 (under -500)
There are not many people who think that the Cardinals will pull a surprise and take Bosa, and that is why the odds are so heavily in favor of the under on this prop. It was not that long ago that this prop had a number of -200 on the under, but that number is now -500. When odds first came out it was thought that Murray wouldn’t even go in the top five, as his overall draft position was 9.5. Oddsmakers should have known better, as NFL teams almost always overreact and take quarterbacks too high. Whether or not Kyler Murray is the next Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield remains to be seen, but NFL teams are not going to take the chance of missing out.
Murray may not be worth a number one pick, but the Cardinals badly need a quarterback and it does appear they are going to take Murray. The problem with Murray is that he simply isn’t that big. He measured 5’10” at the combine, but that measurement may have been a little favorable, as he was just 5’9” in college. He also is small in stature, as he was just 195 pounds in college and at the combine he was 207 pounds. The only NFL quarterback who compares to Murray is Russell Wilson and he is even bigger than Murray at 5’11”.
The Cardinals drafted Josh Rosen with the 10th overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft and it already appears that selection was a mistake. Will they make another mistake by taking Murray? The odds sure do favor the Cardinals taking Murray with the top pick.
The Cardinals made a very questionable decision by hiring Kliff Kingsbury as their head coach and it now appears they are going to make another risky decision and take Murray with the top pick. It should be noted that in the last ten years only twice has a quarterback not been selected in the top two and in those two years the best choices were Blake Bortles and E.J. Manuel. The value on taking the under 2.5 on this prop is long since gone, but it is hard to make a case for the over.
Dwayne Haskins Draft Position
5.5 (over -165)
5.5 (under +120)
The best quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft could very well be Haskins. Unlike Murray, Haskins has the size to succeed in the NFL. He can make every throw and he showed at Ohio State that he knows how to win. There could be some excellent value in taking under 5.5 on this prop. Forget about the draft order because if a quarterback needy team believes in Haskins they will trade up to get him.
Drew Lock Draft Position
12.5 (over +105)
12.5 (under -145)
The number on Drew Lock and his draft position is a little trickier. Lock has the size that impresses scouts, but he was erratic at Missouri at times and he could end up being like Drew Rosen. Teams that need a quarterback usually overreact and take whoever is available, so Lock could still go in the top 10, even though he doesn’t look like a franchise quarterback.
Number of Quarterbacks Selected in Round 1
3.5 (Over -175)
3.5 (Under +145)
We know that NFL teams continually overrate quarterbacks in the NFL Draft so there is a good chance that four quarterbacks are taken in the first round. We know that Murray, Haskins and Lock will go in the first round. The question is who goes next and where. Daniel Jones of Duke looks like he will be the fourth quarterback taken and based on how teams value quarterbacks, there is a good chance he goes in the first round.
Check out the latest NFL Draft odds at BetDSI.
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