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NFL

SNF – Colts at Chiefs

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
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NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

SNF Betting Results

There was no sweating out last week's SNF play, as the Saints and Cowboys never came close to threatening the closing total. The result kept the SNF broadcast crew still in search of their first 'over' game, with the record now sitting at 0-5 O/U when you include Opening Night in Chicago that first Thursday as well. Not one of those games has finished with more then 44 total points scored, and with an average score of 29.6 points per game, points have really been at a premium on SNF in 2019.

The good news for those that prefer offensive football, is that that number should climb much higher after this week's game in Kansas City. KC has got the reigning league MVP under center once again, putting up big numbers each week once again, as this Chiefs offense averages 33.8 points per game themselves. That's more then what SNF games have seen from both teams combined on average, and you know that NBC analyst Al Michaels has to be excited about the possibility of getting a few more touchdown calls in this week.

That might not necessarily mean this 'under' run on SNF will get snapped, as the Chiefs bring some high totals with them each week as well. This week's total currently sits at 56, and that's 3 TD's-plus higher then what we've seen on average from SNF games this year. That's a big jump for sure, and maybe even Michaels' throat isn't ready for THAT many TD calls this week.

So let's get to the breakdown and see what angles we can find.

Total Talk

Interestingly enough, whenever SNF is looking for a high-scoring game to arrive, the Kansas City Chiefs seem to fall right into their laps. Since the start of the 2016 season, KC is on a 7-1 'over' run under the Sunday's lights, with the lone 'under' coming in a 45-10 win against the Bengals last year with the total closing at 56.5. There was the 83-point game versus the Patriots that they fell short in last year, as well as a trip to Seattle that saw 69 points scored. All of the other 'overs' but one saw at least 57 or more points scored, as this Chiefs offense has never stiffened up under the spotlight.

With KC already sporting a 3-1 O/U record this year, you always knew that the 'over' is going to be the popular side in a Chiefs game and this week is no different. When you're putting up 30+ points per game, you don't even need all that much help from your opponent to cash 'over' tickets, and with KC's defense ranking 30th of 32 teams in the league in yards allowed per game, and worst in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (5.87), Kansas City opponents generally have no problem carrying their own weight when it comes to 'overs' in Chiefs games this year. Those three 'overs' have resulted in an average point total of 28 points scored per game by KC opponents, and the only 'under' came in the Chiefs lone division game against the Raiders, who posted 10 points in the first quarter but failed to score the rest of the game.

Last I checked, Indy wasn't a rival of the Chiefs in the AFC West, and in a year that got thrown into chaos at the start with QB Andrew Luck's retirement, Indy has still managed to put up 24 or more points in three of their four games – cashing the 'over' in all of those as well. The Colts only 'under' this year came in their lone division game too, so maybe we will have a Sunday Night shootout yet again involving the Kansas City Chiefs.

Side Spiel

Line Movements

The opening spread for this game at -8.5 to -9 on the Chiefs did not last long at all, and after that initial surge of Chiefs money last Sunday and into Monday afternoon, the spread hit -11 where it currently is and has done nothing but fluctuate in price at that number since. Chances are we could get some Colts buyback as SNF approaches – either from those who grabbed KC at -9 and are looking for a potential middle, or those who believe the number is too high – but I wouldn't expect this number to be much different when all is said and done.

Which makes it tough to take either side in my opinion, as the whole playoff revenge argument gets thrown around as potential backing for a Colts play, but Indy is also without Luck this year, and doesn't have to deal with extreme cold like they did in that game. The weather difference alone calls for a different general gameplan to likely be employed, nevermind that it's a completely different QB back there too.

Indy will look to run the ball and find success that way though – as most teams have so far in 2019 vs KC – and if they are able to do that, produce points, and shorten the game at the same time, this point-spread probably does end up being a bit too high.

Final Thoughts

Similiar to the Eagles-Falcons matchup on SNF in Week 2, this game does set up as one of the potential better teaser plays on the week in terms of teasing either way. You may not be able to drop the Chiefs down to -3 or below for optimal teaser strategy right now, but winning this game by a touchdown or so probably sounds right in most cases. Teasing the Colts up through the key numbers of +14 and +17 gives you a cushion should it end up being a two-TD win for Kansas City, but landing right around either side of this point-spread would not surprise me at all.

Obviously teasing either side means you'll need to pair it up with something else during the week (say, Green Bay +10 or NY Jets +21.5) or the total in this game as well. And like last week, it's the total that stands out more to me from a betting perspective, and as “square” as it may look, going 'over' is probably the only way to go here.

Yes, asking for 57 points is a lot given what we've seen on SNF already, but last year SNF was on a 1-5 O/U run before the Chiefs visited New England in Week 6 and treated us all to that epic back-and-forth game. For whatever reason, Andy Reid's offenses in KC know how to make use of the extra time they afforded before a SNF game, as they've put up an average of 42 points per SNF game in their five contests under the lights the past two years. You get that kind of production from Mahomes and company this week, and the Colts don't even have to lift much weight at all to carry it 'over' the total. Also, make a note that Indy remains banged-up on defense and not having linebacker Darius Leonard or safety Malik Hooker available again won't be easy.

Teasing a side with the 'over' if you are looking for a same-game teaser would be the best option from my view, but as long as this total stays under the key number of 57, I've got no problem taking the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over 56



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