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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 1 Picks, Odds | NBA Playoffs Prediction

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

The 2024 NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday evening with only one game on the docket -- but it's a good one, as the Western Conference Semifinals officially get underway with Timberwolves vs. Suns Game 1, which is scheduled for at 7 p.m. ET on TNT.

The T-Wolves are 4.5-point road underdogs on the spread in Saturday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 207.5 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about T-Wolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for the NBA Playoffs on Saturday, May 4.

For more basketball action, check out our NBA odds.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds

MIN @ DEN Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+5 -110 +2 -105 +2.5 -115 +1.5 even +1.5 -105 +2 -108 +2.5 -125 +1.5 -106 +4.5 -112  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-5 -110 -2 -115 -2.5 -105 -1.5 -120 -1.5 -125 -2 -112 -2.5 -105 -1.5 -121 -4.5 -108  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
o209 -110 o102.5 -110 o102.5 -108 N/A o102.5 -110 o102.5 -110 o102.5 -110 o102.5 -117 o210 -108  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
u209 -110 u102.5 -110 u102.5 -112 N/A u102.5 -120 u102.5 -110 u102.5 -120 u102.5 -112 u210 -112  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+168 N/A +134 +125 +110 +136 N/A +128 +152  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-200 N/A -164 -155 -155 -162 N/A -162 -180  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+5 -110 +1.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +2.5 -117 +4.5 -112  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-5 -110 -1.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.5 -112 -4.5 -108  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
o209 -110 o106 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A o106.5 -110 o210 -108  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
u209 -110 u106 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A u106.5 -121 u210 -112  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+168 N/A +118 N/A N/A N/A N/A +130 +152  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-200 N/A -144 N/A N/A N/A N/A -165 -180  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+5 -110 +1 -105 +1.5 -118 +1.5 -120 +0.5 -110 +1 -108 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -104 +4.5 -112  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-5 -110 -1 -115 -1.5 -104 -1.5 even -0.5 -120 -1 -112 -0.5 -120 -0.5 -122 -4.5 -108  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
o209 -110 o51.5 -110 o51.5 -104 N/A N/A o51.5 -110 o51.5 -115 o51.5 -114 o210 -108  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
u209 -110 u51.5 -110 u51.5 -122 N/A N/A u51.5 -110 u51.5 -115 u51.5 -114 u210 -112  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+168 N/A +108 +115 even +114 N/A +110 +152  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-200 N/A -132 -140 -130 -135 N/A -141 -180  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+5 -110 +1 -115 +1.5 -120 N/A +1.5 -125 +1 -108 +1.5 -125 +1.5 -122 +4.5 -112  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-5 -110 -1 -115 -1.5 -102 N/A -1.5 -105 -1 -112 -1.5 -105 -1.5 -107 -4.5 -108  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
o209 -110 o51.5 -115 o51.5 -104 N/A N/A o50.5 -122 o50.5 -120 o51.5 -104 o210 -108  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
u209 -110 u51.5 -115 u51.5 -122 N/A N/A u50.5 +102 u50.5 -110 u51.5 -127 u210 -112  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+168 N/A +118 N/A N/A +114 N/A +116 +152  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-200 N/A -144 N/A N/A -135 N/A -148 -180  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+5 -110 +1 -115 +1.5 -118 N/A +1.5 -125 +1 -110 +1.5 -120 +1.5 -106 +4.5 -112  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-5 -110 -1 -115 -1.5 -104 N/A -1.5 -105 -1 -110 -1.5 -105 -1.5 -122 -4.5 -108  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
o209 -110 o53.5 -115 o53.5 -115 N/A N/A o53.5 -112 o54.5 -105 o52.5 -127 o210 -108  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
u209 -110 u53.5 -115 u53.5 -111 N/A N/A u53.5 -108 u54.5 -125 u52.5 -105 u210 -112  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+168 N/A +116 N/A N/A +110 N/A +135 +152  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-200 N/A -142 N/A N/A -130 N/A -175 -180  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+5 -110 +1 -120 +0.5 -110 N/A +0.5 -115 +1 -115 +0.5 -110 +1.5 -139 +4.5 -112  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-5 -110 -1 -110 -0.5 -110 N/A -0.5 -115 -1 -105 -0.5 -115 -1.5 +107 -4.5 -108  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
o209 -110 o52.5 -115 o53.5 -102 N/A N/A o52.5 -108 o51.5 -115 o53.5 -106 o210 -108  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
u209 -110 u52.5 -115 u53.5 -125 N/A N/A u52.5 -112 u51.5 -110 u53.5 -125 u210 -112  
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves 529 Timberwolves
+168 N/A -100 N/A even +110 N/A +102 +152  
Denver Nuggets 530 Nuggets
-200 N/A -122 N/A -130 -130 N/A -129 -180  

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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Picks & Prediction

The Nuggets and Timberwolves met in the 1 vs. 8 matchup in the first round of last year’s playoffs, and Denver won the series in five games (4-1). However, Denver's path to the second round of last year’s postseason wasn’t as easy as it may seem at first glance, and now they meet again with the gap visibly more narrow between the two teams in a battle of 2 vs. 3 in the West.

The Nuggets immediately jumped out to a 3-0 series lead over Minnesota to open last year’s playoffs, with all three of those victories coming by margins of 9+ points (+47). However, as soon as everybody wrote off the T-Wolves and finished beating up on them for how they began the series, they showed a tremendous amount of fight in the final two games of the series, as Minnesota managed to escape with an overtime victory in Game 4, and then lost a heartbreaker on the road in Game 5 by a score of 112-109.

This year’s Minnesota team is much deeper, and much more efficient. Last season, the T-Wolves ranked 23rd in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating (20th Net Rating), and although the frontcourt combo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert still posed an interesting matchup for Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, it was never going to be enough to truly compete with a Denver team that ranked 6th in net rating.

This year, however, Minnesota has significantly reduced that gap at both ends of the floor, and it has paid enormous dividends all season. The T-Wolves finished 3rd in the West with a record of 56-26 this season, while ranking 16th in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating; which on the surface, may not seem like a huge uptick compared to last year’s numbers, but their 3rd-ranked net rating of +6.6 certainly indicates otherwise.

With that said, I still don’t love my chances with Minnesota on the road in Game 1. The Nuggets won all four of their Game 1 matchups in last year’s playoffs by six points or more, with three of those wins coming by margins of 9+ points – and they won Game 1 against the Lakers by a score of 114-103 to open this year’s postseason.

The Nuggets posted a record of 33-8 at home during the regular season, and they are certainly known to dominate their home floor early in playoff series. While on the other side of that same coin, the T-Wolves have seen their numbers fall off a little bit on the road, with records of 30-11 at home and 26-15 on the road this season, and they need to be at their absolute best if they intend on beating the defending champs in a hostile playoff environment. 

Minnesota’s offense was excellent against Phoenix in the first round. However, I still don’t think the T-Wolves have enough juice in the scoring department to pull off the road upset in Saturday’s series opener. But I’m open to having my mind changed later down the line if they give the Nuggets a real run for their money out of the gate. I’ll lay the points with Denver in Game 1.

Pick: Nuggets -4.5 (-110)

Click this link for our picks and predictions for all NBA Playoff matchups!

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game Time & TV Channel

Date: Saturday, May 4
Matchup: Northwest
Venue: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, CO
Time-TV: TNT, 7:00 p.m. ET

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Betting Stats

2) Denver Nuggets
(2nd Place, Northwest)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +105
  • Odds to Win Conference: +110
  • Odds to Win Series: -205
  • SU: 57-25
  • ATS: 39-43
  • O/U: 35-47
  • PPG: 114.9
  • OPPG: 109.6

Click this link for the latest betting trends and market movements for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets from VegasInsider Senior Reporter Patrick Everson!

3) Minnesota Timberwolves
(3rd Place, Northwest)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +950
  • Odds to Win Conference: +380
  • Odds to Win Series: +164
  • SU: 56-26
  • ATS: 41-41
  • O/U: 41-40-1
  • PPG: 113.0
  • OPPG: 106.5

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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