HR Props - Best Bets
March 28, 2018
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Chasing Home Runs With Your Favorite MLB Players
With the 2018 MLB season quickly advancing towards us, it’s time to unravel some of the best futures bets you can play at BetOnline.ag.
The oddsmakers have posted one of my favorite markets already – the home run totals for individual players. Check it out by clicking here.
Below are my favorite takes on the board with four mainstream marvels and one sneaky UNDER bet I really like.
Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) – 34.5 Home Runs
Judge led the American league with 52 home runs last year, and even if he takes a bit of s lump, the Yankees have suggested moving him around in the lineup so that pitchers can’t escape his powerful swing. This is as fun as MLB futures bets get. Judge shouldn’t just crest this mark in the OVER, he should do what he does to baseballs – smash it to bits.
Giancarlo Stanton (NY Yankees) – 42.5 Home Runs
Stanton has home run totals of 22, 34, 37, 24, 37, 27, 27 and 59. That’s why this total seems so low. Last year was an outlier of epic proportions. Now that he’s a Yankee, the expectations for the behemoth is going to be greater than ever. The fact that he might be asked to do a bit more with the bat than crush drives also concerns me. But a drop of 16 home runs? That’s a lot. The “smart” bet is the UNDER, but the much more fun investement is taking him and Judge to both blow up their home run totals for the 2018 MLB season.
Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals) – 32.5 Home Runs
Harper has 400 million reasons to try and put up the biggest numbers of his career, but he’s two years separated from his 42 home run season in 2015 where he played in 153 games and saddled up to the plate 521 times. In the 2016 season, Harper smashed 24 home runs in 147 games and his injury riddled 2017 campaign saw him hit 29 home runs in just 111 games. If healthy, Harper can total reach this mark. But that’s a big “if”. Harper also does everything well at the plate, so there’s no reason for him to swing away.
This does seem like a low number for him to hit, but there’s a good reason. I prefer the UNDER for a variety of reasons, most notably that the pressure Harper faces to put up historic numbers is going to be stressful. I don’t blame him for wanting a gigantic, $400 million contract (I want one too!) but he is more versatile than the bash brothers. I’m also concerned about injuries.
Joey Gallo (Texas Rangers) – 34.5 Home Runs
This seems like an easy OVER bet given that Gallo is coming off of a breakout season where he blasted 41 dingers in 2017. The third baseman is a mechanic at the plate and is just coming in to his own. But there are a lot of warts in his game, which is most notably pointed out by his pedestrian batting average of .209. Gallo sort of snuck up on the majors last year. He’ll be more properly scouted heading in to the season, so regression is expected.
Mike Trout (LA Angels) – 35.5 Home Runs
It took a long damn time, but Trout is finally being paid like the best player in the league. Trout is due to make $33.25 million over the next three years and then test the free agent market in 2021 when every team will be laying their first borns on his doorstep along with truck loads of gold bricks. Trout is a notoriously healthy specimen that hit a bit of a slump in this department last year when he played in “just” 114 games and rocketed 33 home runs out of the park. Overall, he’s hit 201 home runs in 925 games, which is roughly 22-percent. That gives him a projection somewhere in the 39 home run department. The Angels are gunning this year, and Trout will be at the heart of it. As a rule of thumb, I don’t tend to bet against the bat of Mike Trout. This is my favorite OVER in the entire market.
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