Monday's Best Bet
April 16, 2018
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Monday MLB Best Bet
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
After a chaotic weather weekend through the Northeastern part of the US caused havoc on the MLB schedule this weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays return north of the border to find that their home was hit hard by freezing rain and cold temperatures as well.
Toronto had both games in Cleveland cancelled on Saturday and Sunday, and two full days off is a rarity in this sport. The Blue Jays have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field, and thankfully being the only Canadian team in the league they play in a place with a roof.
Tonight the Jays host a Kansas City team that got a little lucky thanks to the weather as they avoided having to deal with rookie phenom Shohei Ohtani and his L.A Angels teammates on Sunday. KC still dropped all three games to the Angels they played, and enter tonight's game with a 3-10 SU record and on a five-game losing streak.
Can they turn things around as big underdogs against a possibly rusty Blue Jays team?
Intertops.eu Odds: Kansas City (+190) vs. Toronto (-220); Total set at 9
The days of these two teams outright hating one another after some intense playoff games in 2015 are definitely a thing of the past as both organizations have seen significant roster turnover since then. Kansas City got their World Series rings that year, but they are in full blown rebuild mode in 2018 and their 3-10 SU record shows that.
The Royals let some high-priced talent walk over the winter to begin the rebuilding process and they are going to be a team that will be underdogs in the majority of their games this year. That's not to say there won't be some valuable spots to back them, but fading KC over the course of their 162 games this year should work out well.
As an organization, Toronto is kind of caught in between rebuilding and contending this year and how they perform up until the All-Star break or so will go a long way in determining the path they take the rest of the year. Big name sluggers of year's past are out of the lineup these days, and with 3B Josh Donaldson currently on the DL, Toronto's doing what they can to keep continuity in their lineup. The results haven't been bad at 9-5 SU and this team is still scoring plenty of runs (5.14/game) as playing in the climate controlled Rogers Centre always helps. As big favorites tonight they'll look to jump all over this struggling Royals team and their young starter Eric Skoglund.
Skoglund comes into his second start of the year with a 9.64 ERA after allowing six hits in 4.2 IP in his first outing. That game ended up being an 8-3 loss for the Royals last week (vs Seattle), and I'd be surprised if tonight's results are any better. Toronto used to feast on left-handed pitching back in those playoff years of 2015 and 2016, and after a very bad year against southpaws a season ago, the Jays made sure to get some guys that could help improve in that regard this year. After a full week of lounging around in clubhouses, these Jays bats are ready to unload on a sub-par starter like Skoglund.
Yet, I'm not that interested in laying the -220 with Toronto given the unique rest situation they are in, despite my thoughts that they should win this game. Blue Jays starter Jaime Garcia is pitching on a full eight days rest and you never really know how a guy is going to react in a spot like that. Rest is a good thing for sure, but too much of it can be very bad, especially for pitchers, and seeing Garcia struggle tonight would not shock me at all.
Instead, I'm looking at this total of 9 and view it as a number that should get surpassed tonight.
Both lineups are itching to get some quality swings in after not playing yesterday, and both pitchers are easily capable of blowing up early. The Royals struggles this year can be pinned on their anaemic offense for the most part, as they've only scored 4 or more runs three times this year (1-2 SU in those games), but none of their games have been in ideal weather. KC has either played in cold Kansas City this April or moved to slightly colder Detroit and Cleveland. An indoor stadium that's known as a hitter's ballpark could be exactly what they need. Add in the fact that two of those three games KC has scored 4+ came against left-handed starters and we should see the Royals threaten four or five runs tonight.
Toronto is looking to do the same against a guy that gave up a run per inning basically in his only start this year, and it's not like they haven't been without Donaldson and other injured players (Tulowitzki, Morales) before. Most of Toronto's offensive damage this year has been without those guys and they've still be scoring 5+ runs per game. That's a number they should easily get to tonight as this one should sail hit double-digits when all is said and done.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet: Kansas City/Toronto Over 9
9-1 L3 Days, 17-5 Run, 5-0 G-Plays
6-1 Picks, 5-0 Totals, 10-3 G-Plays
8-3 Totals, 6-2 G-Plays, +3,682 TY
8-2 L10, 13-4 +1,015 MLB Streak
3-1 L2 Days, 17-9 G-Plays, +2,234
4-1 +326 L3 Days, +1,537 Overall
6-2 L8, 16-6 Run, +2,447 Overall
3-0 +320 L3, 8-3 +481 L11 Picks
11-6 L17 G-Plays, +2,641 This Year
7-3 L10, 26-11 +1,504 L37 G-Plays
5-2 L7 Picks, 13-6 Guarantees
5-2 Last 7 Guaranteed Plays
3-1 L4, 7-3 +421 L10 Picks
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