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Bullpens lead to Bucks
February 21, 2007
By Pat Hawkins
VegasInsider.com
This off season, the big headlines have been what free agents have been getting on the open market. Leading the way, Alfsonso Soriano, inked a deal worth $136 million over eight years to play for the Chicago Cubs and starting pitcher Barry Zito getting $126 million over seven years with the San Francisco Giants.
Starting pitching, which is always a premium took center stage again this offseason. Mid-level starters like Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, Gill Meche, Vincente Padilla all cashed in this winter.
Even Japanese prospect Daisuke Matsuzaka got in on the act, when Boston signed him for $52 million over six years. How will these signings effect wagering in the 2007 season?
The first thing that is always looked at when wagering on baseball games is the starting pitching. Of course this will dermine the betting line of the game and will direct the opinion of most wagers.
However, how many times in the 2006 season did you have your starting pitcher leave the game with a lead only to see the bullpen blow the game in the eighth or ninth inning?
I can tell you this happened plenty of times to me, it's frustrating, especially when you feel your on the correct "side" only to see a set-up guy or closer come in and walk the bases loaded. Backing a strong bullpen can significantly increase your winnings.
Let's take a look at the top 5 team bullpens from 2006 based on Earned Run Averages (ERA) and see how they finished from a wagering standpoint in 2006.
| Top Five 2006 Bullpen Rankings |
| Team |
ERA |
Season Earnings* |
2006 Earnings Rank |
| Minnesota |
2.91 |
+1,960 |
1st |
| NY Mets |
3.25 |
+1,658 |
3rd (1st in NL) |
| San Diego |
3.42 |
+795 |
6th (2nd in NL) |
| Detroit |
3.51 |
+1,081 |
4th |
| Oakland |
3.60 |
+1,916 |
2nd |
| *based on $100 wagered per game on moneyline. | |
The top five ERA based bullpens of 2006 all were very profitable, especially when you consider that only nine teams were in the 'black' in the 2006 season if you blindly bet $100 on them every game.
There is a direct relationship established here that strong bullpens equal winning teams, and more importantly winning wagers.
The only team to skew this trend is the Kansas City Royals. They were the 5th most profitable team in 2006. KC, who had the worst bull pen, was underdogs in over 80 percent of its games so you can understand why they were a top money earner (+1,164).
Teams that have addressed bullpen help this winter:
Baltimore, who finished -1,266 in wagering for 2006 has signed five different arms to help out in the bullpen, including Danny Baez from Atlanta and Jamie Walker from Detroit.
Cleveland, who finished -1,500 in wagering for 2006 has inked four relievers, most notable is Joe Borowski from Florida.
Cincinnati, who had problem with there pen last season (-319), signed four players to help bolster their pen.
The NY Mets understand the success a good bullpen (see above) and signed three more arms including re-signing Gullermo Mota.
For the 2007 season, track the best bullpens and wager accordingly. Check to see who is starting the game on the mound, but more importantly, check to see who will be finishing the game.
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