Veteran pitchers provide a proven commodity and experience that does matter in a starting role. However many starting pitchers that are well known are overvalued significantly even if the numbers are not there to back it up. The reasons are simple, for example imagine a casual fan that is out in Vegas for the weekend trying to play some games. If he hasn’t been following the numbers closely is he more likely to back Jair Jurrjens and Edinson Volquez, or will he gravitate towards Roy Oswalt or Brad Penny at similar prices? Here is a look at some of better known starters in the National League and some reasons that you should be looking the other direction in their starts until they start to turn things around.

Roy Oswalt 4-4, 5.61 ERA (Houston 5-6, -$176)

Roy Oswalt still brings serious name recognition and he has been favored in eight of his eleven starts despite playing for a Houston team that started the year with fairly low expectations around baseball. The Astros have propelled themselves into the thick of the playoff chase but Oswalt has had little to do with it. The veteran right-hander has allowed three or more runs in ten of his eleven starts and opposing hitters are hitting .302 against him. Oswalt has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past decade but his year-by-year numbers have slipped with an increased ERA and reduced strikeout counts each of the past three seasons. There has been absolutely no evidence pointing towards it, but given the presumed guilt of fellow Houston pitchers Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte there could be some merit in speculation that Oswalt may have been enhanced during his peak years. The Astros are scoring runs but Oswalt is a risky proposition right now, ‘over’ plays may also be worth looking at with Oswalt on the mound.

Advertisement

Derek Lowe 2-4, 5.34 ERA (Los Angeles 6-4, +$118)

With 110 wins since 1999, Derek Lowe is among the league leaders in baseball for that time frame. Lowe was often an overlooked pitcher on good teams earlier in his career but he now brings a higher price as a proven veteran. Lowe has been favored in six of ten starts this season and although the Dodgers are plus money behind Lowe it has had little to do with the starting pitcher. The Dodgers have scored in the ninth inning to take the lead and win in four Lowe starts this season, accounting for the 6-4 mark in his starts. Lowe has only left with the lead twice this season and his numbers are alarming with higher than normal number of walks allowed and opponents hitting .305. Lowe has allowed 28 runs in his last five starts and he has made it past the sixth inning just once this season despite normally being a quality innings-eater. Lowe went 16-8 in 2006 but he had a losing record in his two other seasons with Los Angeles despite playing in a great pitcher’s park. There will be value in going against Lowe in several match-ups especially with the poor early starts from NL West opponents like Colorado and San Diego.

Brad Penny 5-4, 5.34 ERA (Los Angeles 6-4, +$197)

Normally a strong starter early in the season Brad Penny has seen his numbers start to fade much sooner this season. With Lowe and Penny in the rotation it is a credit to the Dodgers that they have kept pace with Arizona in the NL West and the bullpen deserves a lot of credit. The great set of relievers have not been able to bail out Penny in many starts this season however as he has really pitched poorly in recent starts. Like Lowe, Penny was a recent beneficiary to a late Dodger rally to boost his money numbers but he has not pitched well enough to win in most starts this season despite his five victories. Opponents are hitting .306 against the right-hander and he has allowed nine or more hits in a game five times this season. Penny has delivered strong strikeout to walk ratios in past seasons but this year he has just 30 strikeouts compared with 22 walks in nearly 60 innings. Penny has been hit the hardest in recent games with 20 runs allowed in his past three starts, despite two of those three games being played at home. Penny had a career season last year and the numbers are starting balance out though the value on Penny has not. The Dodgers have been a favorite of -130 or higher five times this season and the opposing underdogs will be appealing plays in many upcoming Penny starts.

Brett Myers 2-5, 5.76 ERA (Philadelphia 3-7, -$665)

The experiment to remove Brett Myers from the closer’s role has worked out beautifully for the Philadelphia bullpen as the unit has some of the best numbers in baseball and Brad Lidge has delivered a tremendous start to the season. Inserting Myers back into a starting role has been much less successful however as Myers has been one of the worst money pitchers in baseball on account of being favored in seven of ten starts this season. Myers has allowed 15 home runs this season in just 59 innings pitched and the Phillies have lost five consecutive games that he has started. Opposing hitters are hitting .307 against Myers on the season and his WHIP is 1.60. In road games Myers has been especially terrible with a 0-4 record, a 7.39 ERA, and an absurd 2.00 WHIP. The Phillies have been favored in three of his five road starts which led to the big losses for Myers backers. Philadelphia’s offense makes them appealing to wager on but in reality the Phillies are just a few games above .500 and statistically the offense has not been as productive as the perception. Myers may not last much longer in the starting role but he certainly should be considered as a go-against option until then.

Ian Snell 2-3, 4.84 ERA (Pittsburgh 6-4, +$237)

Snell may not be a household name to casual fans yet but he emerged as a great underdog option with the Pirates in the last two years. Snell is 26-27 the last three seasons despite playing on terrible Pittsburgh teams but this season there are some concerns with backing him. The value is gone with Snell even though Pittsburgh has not proven to be significantly improved. Snell was a favorite in five of ten starts this season despite pitching for a perennial loser. Snell was a great road pitcher in 2006 but this season his numbers on the road have been significantly worse, hurting the big underdog opportunities. Snell has typically had very low walk numbers but this season he has already walked 24 batters in 57 innings despite walking just 68 in 208 innings last season. Opponents hit just .250 off Snell last season but this year opposing batters are hitting .310 and he has allowed eight or more hits in six of his last eight starts. The best case scenario is Snell’s value may climb back up and he will start to return to form but right now he should be avoided as the limited value is not worth the risk of backing the Pirates and shaky recent results from Snell.