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Postseason Chase
 

The calendar has flipped to September, meaning the marathon baseball season has now become a sprint towards the end of the regular season. Only the Los Angeles Angels have a stranglehold on the postseason right now, leading the American League West standings by 17 ½ games over second-place Texas. The Angels entertain a 7/5 favored status to win the AL pennant, and a 14/5 ‘chalk’ status to capture the World Series.

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Every other divisional race is separated by five games or less with around 25 games remaining. Three divisions are currently separated by 2 ½ games or less, highlighted by the AL Central race that has Chicago and Minnesota deadlocked with only four weeks until the playoffs.

Advancing to the baseball postseason through the wild-card slot has been advantageous for a couple teams, with the Florida Marlins (1997, 2003) Los Angeles Angels (2002) and Boston Red Sox (2004) winning the World Series as a wild card. This year’s wild-card chase is reduced to a three-team race in both divisions, while the Yankees have an upward climb to make it back to the postseason.

The New York Yankees might very well be on the outside looking in concerning the playoffs for the first time since 1993. There was no postseason during the 1994 campaign due to a players strike late in the year, but the Bombers have been a playoff mainstay since 1995. New York has won four World Series titles, six AL pennants and 10 AL East titles during that period.

Milwaukee appears to have a firm grip on the National League wild card, 4 ½ games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers are 4 ½ games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings despite being a solid 22 games over .500.

Milwaukee is also in the midst of a 10-game homestand, seven of which are against two teams (Cincinnati and San Diego) that are a combined 48 games under .500. The Brewers are currently a 5/2 selection to win the NL pennant, and 6/1 to win the World Series.

It appears that Boston will not catch Tampa Bay in the AL East standings, but the Red Sox remain atop the AL wild-card chase. The Red Sox have a three-game advantage over Chicago and Minnesota, two teams battling for the AL Central title and an automatic slot in October. Boston, the defending World Series champions, is 5/2 to return to the Fall Classic and a 9/2 selection to repeat as champions.

Tampa Bay opened as a 75/1 longshot to advance to the World Series, but has since been bet down to an 11/5 selection. The Rays have also seen their odds improve from 150/1 to 9/2 to win the Fall Classic. Things could be very interesting for a Tampa Bay team that has a stellar 52-20 home record and a pedestrian 32-32 road ledger, especially considering that the AL already has home-field advantage in the World Series.

Chicago and Minnesota continue their season-long struggle atop the AL Central standings that probably won’t be settled until the last few days of the season. This division might very well be decided when the White Sox visit the Twins September 23-25. Minnesota wraps up the regular season with a six-game homestand, while Chicago has 10 road games from Sept. 15-25.

The Twins opened as a 15/1 selection to win the AL pennant, but have since improved to 12/1. Minnesota has also seen its odds improve to win the World Series from 30/1 to 24/1. Chicago has also seen its odds move from 28/1 to 13/2 for the AL pennant, while its World Series championship odds have changed from 55/1 to 16/1.

The three National League divisional races are also tight, with Chicago enjoying the biggest lead of 4 ½ games compliments of the best record in baseball. The Cubs haven’t won the World Series in 100 years, but have one of the most loyal fan bases in the game. Chicago is the current favorite to advance to the World Series with 5/4 odds after opening at 9/2. The Cubs are the second favorite to win the Fall Classic behind the Los Angeles Angels at 3/1 after opening at 10/1.

The NL East race is down to two teams with New York enjoying a slim 1 ½-game lead over Philadelphia. The Mets led the Phillies late last season only to fold down the stretch. These two rivals meet in a three-game set at Shea Stadium Sept. 5-7.

New York opened as the 4/1 favorite to advance to the Fall Classic, but is now behind three NL teams at 11/2. The Mets are one of the few contenders that have seen their odds lengthen to win the World Series, going from 8/1 to 12/1. Philadelphia is in the same boat as New York, going from 6/1 to 10/1 to win the NL pennant and 14/1 to 22/1 to win the World Series.

Arizona (70-68) has the worst record of any divisional leader, and is now just 1 ½ games ahead of Los Angeles. These two teams meet for the last time Sept. 5-7 in California, but it appears that the winner of this division might finish a full 10 games behind the wild-card winner.

The Diamondbacks have seen their odds move from 12/1 to 4/1 to reach the Fall Classic, and 25/1 to 10/1 to capture their first World Series title since 2001. The Dodgers’ odds of winning the NL pennant have moved from 6/1 to 10/1, and 22/1 to 30/1 to win the World Series.

Brad Young can be reached at byoung@vegasinsider.com.

  
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2008 MLB SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Ed Meyer + 3203
Scott Rickenbach + 2514
Jason Johnson + 2410
Underdog Leaders
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Tony Stoffo + 2103
Bryan Leonard + 1830
Joe D'Amico + 1177
Over-Under Leaders
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Scott Rickenbach + 1105
Doc's Sports + 1077
Jamie Tursini + 795
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Chip Chirimbes + 2275
Joe Nelson + 2236
Jamie Tursini + 1753
Favorite Leaders
Handicapper Money
Tom Freese + 2429
Chip Chirimbes + 1403
ASA + 1318
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Doc's Sports + 2100
Ed Meyer + 2036
Joe D'Amico + 1326
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