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Phillies-Dodgers NLCS Preview
 

The NLCS is all set to begin Thursday in Philadelphia. A few days of rest until the series begins has been embraced by the Phillies and Dodgers. L.A. swept the Cubs, while the Phillies needed four games to dispose of the Brewers.

This is the fourth time that Philadelphia and Los Angeles will meet in the National League Championship Series. What can we expect to see this time around? Will the Dodgers’ slingers make short work on the hill or do the Phillies show up to the park with bats that are capable of pummeling the ball? Only time will tell but we can still take a look at strengths and weaknesses in both dugouts.

 
HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU Run Line HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
Philadelphia Phillies 92-70 (+406) 75-87 (-1051) 48-33 44-37 73-83-6
L.A. Dodgers 84-78 (-829) 80-82 (-197) 48-33 36-45 73-83-6

Philadelphia:
The Phillies haven’t been graced by the presence of the Dodgers in the NLCS since 1983. Winning three games to one, Philly downed L.A. but found themselves World Series losers against Baltimore. We fast forward to 2008 and the Phillies are a team categorized by spurts of offensive dominance followed by a void of production from the plate.

This was a club that swung through pitches for a .235 BA in the month of August only to improve with a .263 BA in September. Hitting .250 and scoring 3.8 runs per game in the four games played against Milwaukee in October, it’s apparent that Philadelphia is on a roller coaster ride when it steps into the batter’s box. Even more disturbing is a .171 BA with nine strike outs with runners in scoring position during the club’s stint in the NLDS.

Heading into Game 1 of the NLCS, No. 1 starting pitcher, Cole Hamels will receive a full seven days of rest. This could be a double-edge sword, however, as the left-hander is 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA in 88 innings pitched on five days of rest or more. To put this in perspective, Hamels was 9-4 with a 2.68 ERA when coming off four days of being idle.

Looking ahead to Games 2 and 3, Brett Myers and veteran Jamie Moyer are locked and loaded for their first appearances in the NLCS. Myers is coming off a solid outing against Milwaukee in Game 2 of the divisional series. His seven innings of work yielded two runs allowed on only two hits. As for the crafty lefty, Moyer has gone 3-2 in only six career postseason appearances in 21 years in the league, with opponents finding a way to generate a .306 BA.

In head-to-head matchups during the regular season, Philadelphia swept L.A. in a four-game set from Aug. 23 to 25, outscoring its opponent 27-5. Looking further back reveals that the Phillies struggled on the West Coast against the Dodgers by dropping another four-game series from Aug. 11 to 14.

Three players coming off successful swings in the NLDS include Jimmy Rollins (.375 BA), Shane Victorino (.357 BA, five RBIs) and Pat Burrell (four RBIs). Slugger, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley combined to produce a .158 BA, while sitting back down in the dugout with nine strikeouts.

Projected Starters: Cole Hamels – Game 1; Brett Myers – Game 2; Jamie Moyer – Game 3;

Dodgers: Cutting right to the heart of this matchup has L.A.’s strong suit on the pitching side of things. Starting slingers, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda combined for a 3.38 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP during the regular season. Could these numbers solidify the rotation for continued success?

Slated to get the ball in Game 1, Lowe has been a stud in September and October contests, constructing a 21-15 record with a 3.14 ERA since entering the league in 1997. In 19 career starts during the postseason, the right-hander is 5-4 with a 3.01 ERA. In Lowe’s last 10 appearances during the hunt for October, teams he’s hurled for (Boston and L.A) have gone 7-3.

The 35-year old starter is 3-0 in four starts versus Philadelphia in the last three years (four total starts). The Phillies’ bats have also struggled, logging in a .211 BA with two runs scored per game in those same four outings.

Chad Billingsley is still plenty young and has a long career ahead of him to knock opposing teams dead. In his third season in the Majors (with the Dodgers), Billingsley increased is overall record to 35-19 with a 3.33 ERA (6-10, 3.14 ERA during the ’08 regular season). It may be his third year in the league but the righty will be making his fourth appearance in a playoff game.

On Aug. 25, in a 5-0 loss in Philadelphia, Billingsley logged in six innings, giving up three runs on seven hits, while walking five batters.

Offensively keep an eye on catcher, Russell Martin. Not only did the 2007 Gold Glover record a .284 BA with 41 RBIs on the road during the regular season but five RBIs, one long ball and three doubles against the Cubs in the NLDS is good indication of a quick start to postseason play.

Of course there are Manny Ramirez’s five hits, five runs and two dingers over the fence in the past NLDS but what’s important is how pitchers are reacting to batters before the big man steps into the box. The pressure on the opposition to throw strikes before Ramirez steps to the plate has given Martin and Rafael Furcal great opportunities at making contact with the ball.

Pay attention to first baseman, James Loney who finished the NLDS batting a low .214 average. But between the numbers reveals Loney’s six RBIs on only three hits (a team high in RBIs during this postseason).

With nine holds during the regular season, reliever Cory Wade has already logged in two holds, giving up three hits and one earned run for a 2.45 ERA. With 14 saves on the season, closer Jonathon Broxton has thrown in 3.1 innings, striking out five batters for one save against the Cubs.

Projected Starters: Derek Lowe – Game 1; Chad Billingsley – Game 2; Hiroki Kuroda – Game 3

Series Price: The NLCS will be played in a 2-3-2 format. Most books have installed the Phillies as $1.25 favorites, while the Dodgers are catching a slight +105 price tag.
 

2008 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
08/25/08 Dodgers 0 @ Philadelphia 5 (+104) UNDER 9.5
08/24/08 Dodgers 2 @ Philadelphia 5 (-104) PUSH 10
08/23/08 Dodgers 2 @ Philadelphia 9 (-165) OVER 8.5
08/22/08 Dodgers 1 @ Philadelphia 8 (-116) OVER 8.5
08/14/08 Philadelphia 1 @ Dodgers 3 (-109) UNDER 10
08/13/08 Philadelphia 6 @ Dodgers 7 (+108) OVER 8.5
08/12/08 Philadelphia (+125) 3 @ Dodgers 4 (+101) UNDER 10
08/11/08 Philadelphia (+125) 6 @ Dodgers 8 (-114) UNDER 10

Prediction: The stage is all set in both the NL and ALCS, so we know when and where the entertainment will be held. In this matchup, the classic ability to tank in the postseason by Philadelphia is looming over the club's head. The Dodgers aren't lights out from the plate but there's no questioning that Manny Ramirez makes the entire lineup that much better. Philly has the pitching to keep these games to low scoring duels but it's the Dodgers that squeeze out a Game 7 'W', advancing to the World Series. And the Phillies continue to hope that Utley, Howard and Burrell will finally find a groove that last more then one or two games in a row. You nullify these bats with inconsistent ability to make contact and chalk another point up for the Dodgers.

Dodgers in Seven

Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.

  
HEADLINES
Blue Jays might not be free-agent player
Judge lifts restrictions on BALCO testimony
Charity parts ways with Clemens
K-Rod's agent: No talks until Dec. 8
Rangers put Loe on waivers
Reports: McNamee gave DNA samples
Phillies 2B Utley has surgery on right hip
Mitchell thinks drug use down in MLB
Marlins ballpark opening delayed to 2012
MORE HEADLINES
 
2008 MLB SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Ed Meyer + 3203
Scott Rickenbach + 2514
Jason Johnson + 2410
Underdog Leaders
Handicapper Money
Tony Stoffo + 2103
Bryan Leonard + 1830
Joe D'Amico + 1177
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Scott Rickenbach + 1105
Doc's Sports + 1077
Jamie Tursini + 795
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Chip Chirimbes + 2275
Joe Nelson + 2236
Jamie Tursini + 1753
Favorite Leaders
Handicapper Money
Tom Freese + 2429
Chip Chirimbes + 1403
ASA + 1318
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Doc's Sports + 2100
Ed Meyer + 2036
Joe D'Amico + 1326
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