It may have taken five hours and 27 minutes for the Rays to emerge from a grueling Game 2 ALCS victory but the fact remains; this club is alive and ready to move on. Eleven innings, a total of 37 players used and seven home runs were just some statistical absurdities that defined Saturday’s get together.
But that’s all behind us now and a special double-header on Monday (Philadelphia-Dodgers at 8:22 p.m. EDT) will begin with a 4:37 p.m. EDT throw down between Boston and Tampa for the all important edge in Game 3. Remember, as stated in the ALCS preview piece, that the Rays are coming off a 2-7 showing in nine visits to Fenway Park during the regular season.
Direct correlation with grabbing only two wins in Boston include Tampa’s .198 BA, 2.4 runs scored per game and a toping out at 70 strikeouts (7.8 Ks per game) in the nine played up north. And while not the most effective road number, the Rays .248 BA was considerably higher then Fenway’s mess at the plate.
Tampa Bay continues to foster backers’ insecurities by posting an 11-46 record in the last 57 meetings in Boston.
The Red Sox are looking for big things to come from the mound. Placing fired up starter Jon Lester into the fray is sure to pose a serious problem to the Rays’ bats. This is a southpaw slinger who’s 5-1 in his last seven starts, 1-0 in two postseason games and has allowed just 1.3 runs per game in the last eight trips to the mound. If you want to make a stronger case for Lester to single handedly take control of this game then know that the Washington native is an unconscious 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home this season.
To make this pitching analysis fare, what might we expect from Tampa’s right-hander, Matt Garza? He’s coming off a letdown loss in Game 3 of the ALDS against the White Sox (5-3), giving up five runs on seven hits in six innings of ball. And then there’s Garza’s road record of 4-6 with a 4.53 ERA. There’s no selling you on a pick here based on comparative pitching but there’s also no overlooking the obvious.
The Rays are 3-8 in Garza’s last 11 starts on grass.
As far as series stats are concerned, Boston has connected for a sub-par .250 BA, while whiffing 17 times in the ALCS. By far, Red Sox Kevin Youkilis has been on call once again with a .600 BA (6-for-10), while Jason Bay has put the money where his mouth is for a .500 BA with four RBIs.
Boston is 23-8 in its last 31 playoff games.
If you’re keying on specific players to open a can of offense on Lester zero in on Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena. The first baseman has applied wood on the ball for a .313 BA with six RBIs in 16 total plate appearances versus the Red Sox slinger.
Most books have installed the Red Sox as $1.75 home favorites (bet $175 to make $100), with a total set at 8 ½-runs.
Seven of the last 20 games have had totals of an exact 8 ½-runs. The ‘under’ has gone 4-3 in those seven. Take into consideration that the Rays have been installed as a $1.65 or more only once this entire season against the Red Sox. Tampa went onto take a 4-2 win in the head-to-head matchup on Sept. 10, collecting a +203 profit as the ‘dog that day.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
