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Cubs Forecast: OVER 92½ WINS
The Cubs ran away with the Central division last season but another postseason disaster was waiting, swept in three games at the hands of the Dodgers. Although counting on Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly to post similar numbers and counting on Rich Harden to be healthy is far from a sure thing, the Cubs should have the best rotation in this division. Sean Marshall appears ready to handle a full time spot in the rotation after seeing spot action in the past few seasons and the bullpen appears to be in capable hands even without Kerry Wood. The Cubs panicked to add the left-handed bat that many said they needed and Milton Bradley is certainly a risky signing in his temperament and in terms of his ability to stay on the field. Chicago will need Kosuke Fukodome to regain his early season swing and having Alfonso Soriano healthy for the whole year could be a huge boost. Geovany Soto could see a bit of a setback in his second full year and Mark DeRosa will be missed but this is still the team to beat in this division and probably in the entire National League, until the playoffs at least.
Cardinals Forecast: OVER 82½ WINS
The Cardinals were expected to take a big fall last season but it never happened as St. Louis stayed in wild card contention all season despite a plethora of injuries and other setbacks. With the best player in baseball anchoring the lineup the Cardinals should not be counted out and the addition of Khalil Greene should be a solid upgrade. The bullpen still has some questions to be answered but if Chris Carpenter can come remotely close to his level of play from a few years ago the starting rotation looks solid. Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright have proven to be capable pitchers in this division and Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro are slightly above average for the back end of the rotation. At some point Troy Glaus will return to the lineup as well. Second base is a question mark after Adam Kennedy was released but this is a team with a nice mix of speed and power and should have superior pitching than some of the other contenders.
Brewers Forecast: UNDER 80½ WINS
After finally making the playoffs last season in an all-in push the Brewers should take a serious step back this season. The wins that C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets provided will be very difficult to replace and relying on a rotation with unproven prospects Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra in addition to three unreliable veterans Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Braden Looper has its risks. The starters conceivably could be capable but the bullpen looks problematic, relying on the already injured and decreasingly reliable Trevor Hoffman to take over the closer role. Milwaukee still has a lineup that can provide some power but the team hit for a very low average last season and strikes out far too often. The Brewers should still be a fun team to watch but given the competition in this division Milwaukee looks like the team most likely to take a major fall. With several talented prospects waiting in the wings, this year could turn into a trial period while the team looks towards the 2010 season with a little more seasoning for the young pitchers. A potential nagging injury to Ryan Braun that has developed is last the thing this team needs.
Reds Forecast: UNDER 78½ WINS
Every year the Reds appear to be ready to turn the corner and enter the playoff chase but this continues to be a frustrating and disappointing squad. The Reds lost two power hitters with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. out of the picture and the switch to a faster and better defensive team could take some time. There is some promise in this lineup but relative to most of the other teams in this division Cincinnati will have a hard time keeping up in terms of production. After a nightmare 2008 season Aaron Harang will need to bounce back but with Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings, and Homer Bailey the potential for a solid rotation is there if each can improve after showing signs of promise last season. The Reds should be considered a sleeper team with the potential of the young team but as tends to happen, the Reds will likely fall short of the elevated expectations. The additions of Ramon Hernandez and Willy Taveras are decent but probably not enough.
Astros Forecast: OVER 73½ WINS
If Houston can avoid another poor start to the season they might seriously be in contention for a playoff spot. Last year the Astros crawled very close to wild card spot but had some tough breaks late in the year, most notably the moving of home games due to the hurricane. Adding Ivan Rodriguez could be a great move for the lineup and the pitching staff and with a deadly middle of the order featuring Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, and Hunter Pence the Astros should score plenty of runs. Roy Oswalt had an awful start last season but finished the year in fine form but the back of the rotation will likely again be an issue for Houston. Houston could have some potential distractions looming but this is a dangerous lineup that will likely post big numbers at home. If the pitching can be respectable the Astros will have a chance. If the Astros start poorly, consider that another late season run will be possible as this team always seems to heat up in August.
Pirates Forecast: UNDER 67½ WINS
It would be nice to find reasons why the Pirates might finally show some improvement this season but after remarkably consistent losing results in recent years and no major moves to improve the club it looks like another finish at the bottom of this division. Outside of Paul Maholm the whole rotation is a question mark as Ian Snell had a terrible year last season and Zach Duke has never regained the great form that gave the Pirates great optimism when he broke on the scene. The lineup has decent players in every position but collectively it is not enough to compete in this offensively loaded division with MVP-type caliber players on every roster. The bullpen got great performances from Matt Capps last season but getting to the ninth inning with the lead will likely not be common enough for him to have a great positive impact. New pitching coach Joe Kerrigan has his hands full and it will be another uphill battle for the Pirates.
