Most of the country will have the day off this Friday for the Fourth of July. And what better way to celebrate our independence than placing a dollar or 100 on some baseball. Nothing more American than that, right?
There are six teams sending out a left-handed pitcher to start on Friday. Let’s take a look at how the opposition stacks up against southpaws.
Blue Jays at Yankees – 1:05 p.m. EDT
New York has been rolling with seven straight wins to keep pace with the Red Sox in the American League East. The betting shops expect the Yanks to take Game 1 against Toronto after listing them as $1.80 home favorites (risk $180 to win $100) with a total of 9 ½.
If I had to take a guess, the sportsbooks noticed that the Blue Jays will be sending leftie Brian Tallet (5-5, 4.47 ERA) to the mound. Toronto has lost three of Tallet’s last four starts, averaging just under four runs per game. That isn’t bad output for the offense, except for the fact that Tallet’s ERA is 5.82 that stretch.
The Yankees are also seeing the ball extremely well against left-handers. They are third in the big leagues with a .293 batting average, 32 homers and 123 runs scored. Numbers like that tend to validate New York’s 14-7 record against left-handed pitching this season.
Braves at Nationals – 6:35 p.m. EDT
On the outside, the Braves would look like the play here as $1.40 home faves with a total of 9 ½ in Washington. The numbers support Atlanta here as they’re 14-7 against southpaws this season while batting .272 with 18 home runs. Then you consider that the Nationals are trotting out lefty Ross Detwiler (0-4, 5.24 ERA) to start.
What does make you shy away is the fact that Detwiler has done relatively well in his last two starts at home, going 1-1 with a 3.46 earned run average. Also, Atlanta has lost four of its last five games on the road against southpaws this year.
Rays at Rangers – 8:05 p.m. EDT
Tampa Bay may have dropped its last game against the Blue Jays, but they’ve still won eight of its last 10 contests. The Rays are even putting Scott Kazmir on the mound in the perfect “right back” spot: it’s Kazmir’s second start back from a break on the disabled list. What poses a problem here is Las Vegas Sports Consultants installing Tampa Bay as a $1.35 road “chalk” with a total of 10 ½. It almost smells of a trap for bettors considering Kazmir is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.
The Rangers are 22nd in the big leagues against left-handed pitching with a .253 average and 36 four-baggers and 111 runs scored. Texas has posted a 16-11 mark against left-handers this season. Plus, Ron Washington’s club is 9-3 in their last 12 games at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington versus southpaws.
Tigers at Twins – 8:10 p.m. EDT
I bet there are a lot of people that will be salivating at taking Detroit as a $1.60 road pup against the Twins. The reason for the hype would be the Tigers sending out southpaw Luke French to make his major league debut. French has gone 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 starts for AAA Toledo this season. So not only do you have a lefty facing Minnesota, it’s a guy that they have never seen before.
It is true that the Twins have gone just 12-15 for the season against left-handed pitchers. However, Minnesota has been hitting them well as evidenced by a .276 batting average with 21 homers 117 total runs. So why are the Twinkies heavy $1.55 home faves? They’re favored because they have owned left-handers at home in nighttime games to the tune of a 9-1 record.
White Sox at Royals – 8:10 p.m. EDT
The Royals have fallen hard times since their torrid start to the season. But they are sending Zach Greinke (10-3, 1.95 ERA) out to start, which makes it understandable whey Kansas City is a $1.40 home “chalk.”
What makes the White Sox a reasonable wager as $1.20 road ‘dogs is John Danks (6-6, 4.08 ERA). Chicago’s lefty has gone 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts. Plus, Kansas City is 11-16 for the year against left-handed pitchers…2-8 in the past 10 tilts. Also, Chicago is 4-1 in Danks’ last five starts as a road pup.
Diamondbacks at Rockies – 8:10 p.m. EDT
It’s not been wise to play against the Rockies over the past month. And it won’t be any smarter in this series opener against Arizona. Colorado is listed as a $1.30 home favorite with a total of 10. Sounds like a small line with leftie Jorge De La Rosa (4-7, 5.64 ERA) getting the start for the Rox. Especially since De La Rosa is 4-1 with a pretty high ERA of 6.18.
This should be a bet you can feel confident in as the D-Backs have been horrible against left-handers this year, as evidenced by their 8-14 mark in 2009. Another nugget of knowledge is that Arizona has gone a paltry 2-7 this year against southpaw pitchers away from Chase Field.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
