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Twins at Yankees
October 7, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
M innesota has been the place to be in the last 48 hours. First, Brett Favre led the Vikings to a 30-23 home win over his former team at the Metrodome on Monday Night Football.
Less than 24 hours later, the same venue was rocking, especially when Alexi Casilla plated Carlos Gomez from second base with a one-out single in the bottom of the 12th inning to lift the Twins to a 6-5 win over Detroit. Bettors cashed tickets with Minnesota listed as a minus-165 favorite at most books. The 11 combined runs sailed ‘over’ the 8 ½-run total.
By rallying to win the American League Central in a tiebreaker game, Minnesota advances to the ALDS to face the heavily-favored Yankees. The Twins will not have the benefit of any rest, either, as they are back in action tonight in the Bronx. They landed in New York City at 3:00 a.m. this morning.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New York, the AL East champion, as a minus-320 ‘chalk’ to win Wednesday’s Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Gamblers can dodge the super-expensive straight price by taking Joe Girardi’s club on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) at minus-160 (risk $160 to win $100). The total is 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus 115), while the Twins are plus-280 on the comeback for straight wagers, at least at most spots this morning.
For the series, LVSC opened the Yankees at a minus-425 price. Gamblers can take the Twins for a monster plus-325 return (risk $100 to win $325).
Girardi will give the starting nod to C.C. Sabathia, who has a 2-3 record and 7.92 ERA in five career playoff starts. Sabathia should probably get a mulligan for last year’s poor outing (five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings) because the Brewers had him throwing complete games on three days of rest throughout much of last September.
But in the 2007 ALCS against Boston, Sabathia was shelled for a pair of losses and a 10.45 ERA. During the regular season in his first year as a Yankee after signing a $161 million contract, Sabathia compiled a 19-8 record with a 3.37 ERA. However, the left-hander got rocked by the Rays in his last assignment to fall short of winning 20 games for the first time.
As of early this morning, Ron Gardenhire was planning on countering Sabathia with a lefty of his own, rookie Brian Duensing. The 26-year-old from Nebraska went 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 24 regular-season appearances, including nine starts.
The Twins have struggled against southpaws with a mediocre 28-32 record, while the Yankees have feasted on lefties to the tune of a 36-18 ledger. The Twins are just 38-43 on the road, while the Yankees are 57-24 at home.
The ‘over’ has hit in five straight Minnesota games and 10 of its last 13. However, the Twins saw the ‘under’ go 79-73 overall, 45-32 in their road games. The ‘over’ is 78-77 overall for the Yankees, but they have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 41-36 clip in their home outings.
The first pitch for Game 1 will be at 6:05 p.m. Eastern tonight on TBS.
The five-game series has a 2-2-1 format with Game 2 scheduled for Friday at Yankee Stadium. Game 3 and Game 4 (if necessary) will on Sunday and Monday at the Metrodome. A potential Game 5 would be back in the Bronx next Wednesday (10/14).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Will Yankees’ slugger Alex Rodriguez finally come through in October? He has zero World Series rings to his credit. During the playoffs, Rodriguez has a .272 career average with seven homers and 17 RBIs in 39 career games. He was such a goat in the 2007 ALDS against Detroit that he was dropped to No. 8 in the order by former manager Joe Torre. A-Rod hit just .071 in that series loss to the Tigers.
--Like A-Rod, Los Angeles Angels’ slugger Vladimir Guerrero has not performed to his potential in the postseason during his otherwise-outstanding career. Guerrero is hitting just .240 with one homer and seven RBIs in 20 playoff games.
--Phillies’ skipper Charlie Manuel changed his mind on his team’s Game 1 starter Tuesday. Instead of going with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee will get the ball for today’s 2:35 p.m. Eastern start. The defending WS champs are listed as minus-135 favorites against Colorado.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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