The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night at the Superdome, the site of January's epic NFC title game between the Vikings and Saints. These two clubs will see other for the first time since New Orleans' 31-28 overtime victory, as the Saints later captured their initial Super Bowl win over the Colts. Of course, the drama was built up in the offseason thanks to the hemming and hawing from Vikings' quarterback Brett Favre.
We've seen this story before with Favre, who has been indecisive on whether or not to return for another season. It's difficult to believe that the future Hall-of-Famer was going to hang it up after his critical interception at the end of regulation in the NFC championship, one of five Minnesota turnovers. The Vikings cashed as four-point underdogs, while the 'over' of 54 hit with five minutes remaining in regulation thanks to an Adrian Peterson touchdown.
The Vikings outgained the Saints, 475-257, while Minnesota held the ball for nearly nine minutes longer and committed four less penalties. The key for New Orleans was not only being opportunistic on the defensive side with five takeaways, but also committing just one turnover.
Fast-forward to the preseason, the Vikings were unsure if Favre would come back for a second season, as Minnesota played its first game without the veteran, beating St. Louis, 28-7. Favre returned in time for a 15-10 defeat at San Francisco, followed by home victories over the Seahawks and Broncos. The Vikings managed a 3-1 ATS mark in the preseason, with the lone ATS loss to the Niners on the final play of the game.
The Saints split their four preseason contests, as both wins came at home over Houston and San Diego. The New Orleans offense exploded for 74 points in those two victories, while easily covering short numbers. Sean Payton's team lost a pair of road games by identical 27-24 scores at New England and Tennessee, as the Saints' repeatedly lit up the scoreboard throughout the preseason.
New Orleans saw plenty of high totals last season with its dynamic offense, as 12 games were listed at 50 or higher. Getting to that number wasn't always easy with the Saints going 5-7 to the 'over' in those contests, including a 4-3 'over' mark at the Superdome. The Vikings played just three games with a total of 48 or higher, finishing 2-1 to the 'over.'
Minnesota profited last season with an 11-6-1 ATS record, including a 5-4 ATS ledger on the road. Brad Childress' squad was listed as an underdog twice, cashing in the loss at New Orleans, while losing outright both SU/ATS at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Vikings have compiled a 3-1 SU/ATS in their last four season openers, as Minnesota split a pair of road primetime games at Washington and Green Bay.
New Orleans was a solid play last season when it did not lay double-digits, owning an 8-4 ATS record. The Saints were just 5-5 ATS at the Superdome, but that did include three ATS losses as 10-point favorites or more. Under Payton, the defending Super Bowl Champs are a reliable 3-1 SU/ATS in season openers, with the lone defeat coming in a 2007 blowout at Indianapolis, 41-10.
Since 2003, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the Thursday night season opener. For the exception of the Redskins edging the Jets in 2003, for the last six seasons the reigning champion has hosted this Thursday night game. The champ usually delivers for pointspread purposes, going 4-1-1 ATS, as Tennessee is the lone underdog to cash, doing so as a 6 ½-point underdog at Pittsburgh last season in a 13-10 overtime loss.
The Saints opened up as a 3 ½-point favorite in late April, but the line moved up gradually during the offseason. When the news broke that Favre would retire, New Orleans was laying six points at several books. However, that was short-lived when Favre decided to come back, and the Vikings have settled as a five-point underdog on many outlets. The total opened in the 51 ½-52 range, but that number has slipped down to 48-48 ½ over the last four months in a majority of books.
The season kicks off at 8:30 PM EST on Thursday night, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com