| 2010 |
New Orleans (-5.5) |
Minnesota |
|
| 2009 |
Pittsburgh (-5) |
Tennessee |
13-10 (Non-Cover) |
| 2008 |
N.Y. Giants (-4) |
Washington |
16-7 (Cover) |
| 2007 |
Indianapolis (-5) |
New Orleans |
41-10 (Cover) |
| 2006 |
Pittsburgh (-7.5) |
Miami |
30-20 (Cover) |
| 2005 |
New England (-7.5) |
Oakland |
30-20 (Cover) |
| 2004 |
New England (-3) |
Indianapolis |
27-24 (Push) |
| 2003 |
Tampa Bay (+3) |
Philadelphia |
17-0 (Cover) |
| 2002 |
New England (PK) |
Pittsburgh |
30-14 (Cover) |
| 2001 |
Baltimore (-10) |
Chicago |
17-6 (Cover) |
| 2000 |
St. Louis (-7) |
Denver |
41-36 (Non-Cover) |
Looking at the table above, gamblers can see that the Steelers weren’t able to keep the ATS run going last year as they came up short against the point-spread (-6) in their 13-10 overtime victory against Tennessee. Still, Pittsburgh did win outright and laying $2.40 (Bet $240 to win $100) on a money-line play isn’t warranted too often, but they did keep the 10-game straight up streak intact.
Will New Orleans be able to do the same on Thursday when it welcomes Minnesota to the Superdome? Even though the trends lean toward the Saints, host of the VI Power Hours and VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards doesn’t believe they will cover the number against the Vikings.
He explained, “Neither team made many changes in the offseason, although I did like the Saints picking up DE Alex Brown from the Bears. I know Sidney Rice is 'out,' and that is a pretty big deal, but safety Darren Sharper is also ‘out’ for New Orleans. I thought the Vikings were the better team last season and I've seen nothing to change my mind. If not for Adrian Peterson's perplexing fumbles, three of them, the Vikes probably win last year's NFC title game somewhat comfortably. Look for Jared Allen to have a big night at DE, pressuring Drew Brees and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Peterson will have a make-amends game and Brett Favre will be solid as usual. Great chance to win outright, LOVE the Vikings catching points.”
According to the early betting trends at Sportsbook.com, the public believes the Saints will cover the number but the majority of players are taking the Vikings on the money-line. The action starts at 8:30 p.m. EDT on NBC.
The other Super Bowl outcome trend for Week is focused on the loser, which is Indianapolis. The situation has been just as strong as the above angle and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week but the entire season.
Gamblers have watched the loser of the last year’s Super Bowl go 2-9 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 11 seasons.
| 2010 |
Indianapolis |
at Houston |
-2.5 |
|
| 2009 |
Arizona |
vs. San Francisco |
-6.5 |
Loss 16-20 |
| 2008 |
New England |
vs. Kansas City |
-16 |
Win 17-10 |
| 2007 |
Chicago |
at San Diego |
+6 |
Loss 3-14 |
| 2006 |
Seattle |
at Detroit |
-6 |
Win 9-6 |
| 2005 |
Philadelphia |
at Atlanta |
-1 |
Loss 10-14 |
| 2004 |
Carolina |
vs. Green Bay |
-3 |
Loss 14-24 |
| 2003 |
Oakland |
at Tennessee |
+3 |
Loss 20-25 |
| 2002 |
St. Louis |
at Denver |
-3 |
Loss 16-23 |
| 2001 |
N.Y. Giants |
vs. San Francisco |
+3 |
Loss 13-16 |
| 2000 |
Tennessee |
at Buffalo |
PK |
Loss 13-16 |
| 1999 |
Atlanta |
at Minnesota |
+4 |
Loss 14-17 (Cover) | |
Last year, San Francisco knocked off Arizona 20-16 in the desert as a five-point underdog, which kept the streak surging ahead.
The Colts head on the road this Sunday to face Houston and based on the history between the two, this trend could come to an end this weekend.
Edwards added, “Houston has lost 15 of its 16 all-time games against the Colts, including a number of heartbreakers the last few years. But maybe this is the Texans’ breakthrough year? I’m talking about getting to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and possibly ending Indy’s reign in the AFC South. The absences of suspended LB Brian Cushing and injured TE Owen Daniels won’t help the cause, however. I think bettors need to get the Texans at plus three or ‘buy the hook’ to feel confident in the home underdogs.”
Bettors can take a chance with Indianapolis on a short money-line price (-140) or buy back with Houston (+120). Either way, it’s tough to ignore the fact that Peyton Manning and the Colts have gone 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS since 2000 in Week 1.
Perhaps it’s time for a change?
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
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