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Press the Saints, Fade Indy?
 
 
 

Week 1 of the NFL season has finally arrived and we’d be remiss not to mention two solid trends that have helped gamblers build their bankroll in the opening week over the years.

In case you forgot about Super Bowl XLIV last February in Miami, the Saints knocked off the Colts 31-17 in the big game as 4 ½-point underdogs. Fast forward seven months and we’re going to revisit the outcome and touch on both New Orleans and Indianapolis again.

Even though some clubs play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champions haven’t fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!

Ten years and counting now, the defending champion has won its opener, which might not come as a big surprise to you since they’re usually at home and listed as a favorite as well. What might impress you is the champions mark against the spread over this stretch, which stands at 7-2-1 or 78%.

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2009)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2010 New Orleans (-5.5) Minnesota  
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee 13-10 (Non-Cover)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington  16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 30-20 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)

Looking at the table above, gamblers can see that the Steelers weren’t able to keep the ATS run going last year as they came up short against the point-spread (-6) in their 13-10 overtime victory against Tennessee. Still, Pittsburgh did win outright and laying $2.40 (Bet $240 to win $100) on a money-line play isn’t warranted too often, but they did keep the 10-game straight up streak intact.

Will New Orleans be able to do the same on Thursday when it welcomes Minnesota to the Superdome? Even though the trends lean toward the Saints, host of the VI Power Hours and VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards doesn’t believe they will cover the number against the Vikings.

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He explained, “Neither team made many changes in the offseason, although I did like the Saints picking up DE Alex Brown from the Bears. I know Sidney Rice is 'out,' and that is a pretty big deal, but safety Darren Sharper is also ‘out’ for New Orleans. I thought the Vikings were the better team last season and I've seen nothing to change my mind. If not for Adrian Peterson's perplexing fumbles, three of them, the Vikes probably win last year's NFC title game somewhat comfortably. Look for Jared Allen to have a big night at DE, pressuring Drew Brees and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Peterson will have a make-amends game and Brett Favre will be solid as usual. Great chance to win outright, LOVE the Vikings catching points.”

According to the early betting trends at Sportsbook.com, the public believes the Saints will cover the number but the majority of players are taking the Vikings on the money-line. The action starts at 8:30 p.m. EDT on NBC.

The other Super Bowl outcome trend for Week is focused on the loser, which is Indianapolis. The situation has been just as strong as the above angle and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week but the entire season.

Gamblers have watched the loser of the last year’s Super Bowl go 2-9 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 11 seasons.

SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2009)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2010 Indianapolis at Houston -2.5  
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5 Loss 16-20
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17 (Cover)
 

Last year, San Francisco knocked off Arizona 20-16 in the desert as a five-point underdog, which kept the streak surging ahead.

The Colts head on the road this Sunday to face Houston and based on the history between the two, this trend could come to an end this weekend.

Edwards added, “Houston has lost 15 of its 16 all-time games against the Colts, including a number of heartbreakers the last few years. But maybe this is the Texans’ breakthrough year? I’m talking about getting to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and possibly ending Indy’s reign in the AFC South. The absences of suspended LB Brian Cushing and injured TE Owen Daniels won’t help the cause, however. I think bettors need to get the Texans at plus three or ‘buy the hook’ to feel confident in the home underdogs.”

Bettors can take a chance with Indianapolis on a short money-line price (-140) or buy back with Houston (+120). Either way, it’s tough to ignore the fact that Peyton Manning and the Colts have gone 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS since 2000 in Week 1.

Perhaps it’s time for a change?

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

  
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