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Double-Digit Trends - Part II

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After watching the first three weeks of the NFL regular season, we identified a trend that dealt with double-digit outcomes and it came through once again in Week 4. In last week's Double-Digit Trends piece, we made you aware that 14 outcomes were decided by 10 or more points in the first two weeks of the season. The obvious perception is that that these teams aren't good and more blowout losses should occur.

Well, it's been the complete opposite!

Teams that lost by double-digits have shown the ability to rebound in superb fashion, posting a 12-2 straight up record in their next game. Against the spread, the mark dropped a tad but still managed to cash for gamblers at a 77% clip (10-3-1).

If you take away the result from the Buffalo-Kansas City matchup in Week 2 when both teams were coming off double-digit losses, the numbers are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS, which is pretty ridiculous considering you would like to believe that all things balance out.

As you can see in the below table, that hasn't been the case. In Week 3, we had six teams playing off losses by 10 points or more.

Double-Digit Losers - Week 3
Outcome Week 4 Result
Team Week 4 Opponent SU ATS
Carolina @ Atlanta (Lost 28-30) L W
St. Louis vs. Seattle (Won 19-13) W W
San Francisco @ N.Y. Jets (Won 34-0) W W
Cleveland @ Baltimore (Lost 16-23) L W
San Diego @ Kansas City (Won 37-20) W W
Philadelphia vs. N.Y. Giants (Won 19-17) W W

Those squads quickly forgot about what happened the previous week and produced a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS record. Those watching the Carolina-Atlanta game would argue that the Panthers should've captured the outright win on the road. Including that close call, the numbers stand at 16-4 SU and 16-3-1 ATS in the 20 instances. The NFL definitely prides itself on parity and it looks like that's what we have again this season, at least after the first month.

It's safe to say that everybody has looked suspect so far. We do have three unbeaten teams and Houston (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) has looked the best amongst that trio, but the Texans have faced clubs with a combined record of 5-11.

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There are only two winless teams in Cleveland (0-4 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) and New Orleans (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) and they haven't exactly been doormats, with all of their losses coming by 10 or less.

Will this double-digit trend continue into Week 5?

Last week, we had seven teams lose by double. Only five will be able to avenge those setbacks with Oakland and Dallas having their bye week. To no surprise, all five teams are underdogs but three of them will be playing at home.

Tennessee at Minnesota: The Vikings go from "Hunter to Hunted" in this spot and the early money came on the visitor. Minnesota opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and the line has dropped to 5 already. Minnesota is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore: KC turned the ball over six times to the Chargers and only lost by 17, which isn't too bad when you put things in perspective. Even though the Ravens have a couple extra days of rest, this team is already 0-1 on the road and they lost cash for gamblers the past two weeks as favorites. Is this the week they cover the number? Similiar to the Titans, the Chiefs caught early money at the books.

Jacksonville vs. Chicago: The Jaguars are 1-1 (2-0 ATS) on the road and probably should be unbeaten as visitors. However, the team is 0-2 at home and both losses came by double-digits to Houston and Cincinnati. The Bears haven't been a great road favorite but they are your typical bully team that feeds on the weak and loses to the top teams. The win by Chicago on MNF at Dallas, it's second straight by 10-plus, should bump this line up by kickoff.

Buffalo at San Francisco: Backing a team that got outscored 45-14 at home in a second-half doesn't sound like a smart investment, but can it get worse for the Bills? Traveling from one coast to another is never easy but this is a possible look-ahead spot for the 49ers with the Giants visiting for a game in Week 6.

N.Y. Jets vs. Houston: As mentioned above, the Texans have been the class of the NFL after four weeks but this has "trap game" written all over it, especially with Green Bay and Baltimore on deck for Houston. Similar to the Bills, the Jets were embarrassed at home last week and you would like to think that playing on MNF would produce a better effort here.

Along with providing the trends on teams off big losses, we also spoke about the teams that won those games. Unfortunately for them, duplicating those victories has been hard this season. Including last week's results, teams are 9-11 SU and 8-11 ATS after winning by double digits this season. Those results could be worse but the Falcons and Cardinals both squeaked out home victories in Week 4, but failed to cover as favorites.

Also, if you take out the matchups where two teams meet off wins by 10-plus points, the number dips to 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS.

Week 2 - Denver at Atlanta
Week 3 - Green Bay at Seattle

Six more teams will try to continue their dominance in Week 5.

Cincinnati vs. Miami: The Bengals have won three straight after getting ripped by the Ravens 44-13 in Week 1. The Dolphins are off back-to-back overtime losses, which makes you wonder how much do they have left in the tank.

Denver at New England: Both of these teams are off double-digit victories, New England by 24 and Denver by 31. Patriots are 2-2 but the losses have come by a combined three points. When they win, they win comfortably.

Chicago vs. Jacksonville: (See above) - Make a note that the Bears have won two straight by double digits so a tight affair should be expected.

San Francisco vs. Buffalo: (See above)

San Diego at New Orleans: What Chargers team will show up on SNF? San Diego rebounded from a bad home loss to Atlanta with a wire-to-wire win at Kansas City. New Orleans has been competitive but this is certainly no gimme and it's hard to back a team that can't win close games, especially if you have to lay 3 ½-points on top of it.

Houston at N.Y. Jets: (See above) - Three wins by 20, 20 and 24 this season.

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

  
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