Las Vegas Money Moves
November 2, 2012
By Micah Roberts
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The Seahawks have been impressive all season, despite being on a two-game losing streak. There’s no shame in losing at San Francisco or Detroit in two very close games. Bettors often shy away from the Seahawks when they’re on the road, but at when they play at home, that is when they like to jump all in.
It’s plain and simple, the Seahawks have one of the better home-field advantages in football. They’ve covered all three of their home games this season, and they were games against top-notch opponents. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo all took their teams into Seattle this season and all of them took the long flight home after the game as losers.
This week, Christian Ponder and the Vikings will visit the Emerald City with hopes that they can forget the Thursday night beating they took on national TV from the Buccaneers. After starting the season with a surprising 4-1 record, they have now fallen in two of their past three. Most of the blame can be placed upon Ponder himself and the coaching staff that doesn’t allow him to do more. When is the last time you saw Ponder throw more than 20 yards downfield?
It kind of makes it easier for opposing defenses to defend against the Vikings top weapon -- Adrian Peterson -- knowing that the coach won’t let the quarterback beat you deep.
So at this juncture of the season, how can a wager on the Vikings be justified? You can just go with the flow of the season trend by taking the points and hope that the 61 percent rate keeps hitting, but even then, you want to feel good about a wager when putting money down and there just doesn’t seem to be anything there based on their current form and Seattle’s dominance at home.
So far this week, Vikings money has been hard to find. The LVH Super Book opened the Seahawks as 3 ½-point favorites on Sunday night and within 90 minutes, the game had been bet up to 4 ½. On Monday, the game went to -5, until someone finally bit on the Vikings Thursday and pushed the number back to 4 ½. As of Friday, only the South Point had a five on the board in town.
Parlay action has been pretty one-sided as well. The top public parlay combinations this week, along with the Seahawks, are the Broncos (-3 ½), Packers (-10 ½), Texans (-10), and Lions (-4).
Peyton Manning is definitely back to looking like his former self after missing an entire season. The rough part of their schedule is over and Denver managed to come out a respectable 4-3 with losses coming at the hands of the Texans, Patriots, and Falcons -- teams we expect to not only make the playoffs, but do well. This week they get a Bengals squad on a three-game losing streak.
-- The Broncos opened as three-point road favorites at Cincinnati and have been bet up to -3 ½.
-- The Packers opened as 9 ½-point home favorites against the Cardinals and were bet up to as high as 11 before settling at 10 ½. After starting the year off with four straight wins, the Cardinals have lost their past four games, and have looked ugly do it. They can‘t run the ball and they can‘t throw the ball. The only thing you have on your side with the Cardinals is that they play good defense and have a weapon on special teams. And you also have the Packers that can seem bored at times, like last week when they went through the motions against a terrible Jacksonville squad. The Packers have only covered three of their eight games this season.
-- The Lions get a chance to take a whack at the Jaguars this week. While the Packers were bored, the Lions should be thrilled. They come off their best offensive performance of the season where Matt Stafford finally found some rhythm and play a Jags squad that has been beat by 75 points combined in three homes games, obviously, not covering any of them. The Lions opened as 4 ½-point favorites, but were bet against by large money to -4. The public doesn’t care what the line is, they just keep betting Detroit.
-- The Texans opened as 10 ½-point favorites against the Bills. Large money took the points and the Texans now sit at -10. The 61% value might be with the dog here, but the public wants nothing to do with the Bills.
-- The Raiders opened as three-point favorites over the red-hot Buccaneers, and the number didn’t last long. By Tuesday morning, it was down to -1, and has since settled at 1 ½. The Bucs have averaged 31 points a game their past three with Josh Freeman looking like a Pro Bowler throwing for almost 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns over that span. But the Raiders have been playing well, too. Since getting blasted by the Broncos, the Raiders lost a heartbreaker at Atlanta, and then beat the Jaguars and Chiefs. The side bettors are looking at is the OVER, which opened 45 points and has moved to 46 ½.
-- The Giants opened as 3 ½-point home favorites against the Steelers, but the first large money seen was on Pittsburgh dropping the number to three. The Steelers are no bargain on the road, covering only once in their past eight road games, but the Giants don’t seem to have the same appeal at home as they do on the road, covering only seven times as a home favorite in their past 25.
-- The Falcons opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Cowboys, and surpringly, Dallas money has pushed the number to four.
12-3 Totals TY, 24-11 L35 Picks
5 Straight Wins, 10-1 Guarantees
6-1 L7 Guarantees, 3-1 L4 Totals
11-4 L15 G-Plays, 21-9 Totals TY
17-9 L26, 20-11 This Year
3-1 Sunday, 5-1 L6 Win Streak
2-0 Sunday, 4-1 L5 Selections
6-3 Last 9 NFL Selections
3-1 Sunday, 4-1 Over/Unders TY
4-0 Guarantees TY, 5-2 L7 Picks
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