Week 6 Tip Sheet
October 13, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
Raiders at Chiefs (-8, 41) - 1:00 PM EST
Oakland: 2-3 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
Kansas City: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Chiefs are off to their first 5-0 start since 2003 after holding off the Titans, 26-17 as 2 ½-point road favorites. Oakland cruised past rival San Diego last Sunday night, 27-17 to cash as 5 ½-point underdogs, while picking up its second home win in three tries this season.
Previous meeting results: The Raiders pulled off the season sweep in 2012, including a 26-16 triumph at Arrowhead Stadium. Nine of the last 10 meetings between these two AFC West rivals have finished 'under' the total, including five straight at Kansas City.
Betting notes: Since the start of the 2009 season, the Raiders own an impressive 11-1-1 ATS record on the road against divisional opponents, which includes a 'push' in a Week 3 defeat at Denver. The Chiefs have covered just one of their last seven opportunities as a home favorite since 2011, while posting a 2-7 ATS mark in the past nine divisional contests.
Packers (-3, 48 ½) at Ravens - 1:00 PM EST
Green Bay: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Baltimore: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Last week's results: The Packers performed well after the bye week by pounding the Lions, 22-9 as 10-point home favorites. Green Bay hit the 'under' for the first time in four games this season, while winning its 10th consecutive contest at Lambeau Field. The Ravens won their third game in the last four weeks after holding off the Dolphins, 26-23, while cashing for the first time as an underdog since winning last season's Super Bowl.
Previous meeting result: Green Bay took care of Baltimore on a Monday night in December 2009, a 27-14 home victory as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes, while the Packers intercepted Joe Flacco three times, as Baltimore's offense was limited to 185 yards.
Betting notes: The Packers have compiled a 2-4 ATS record under Mike McCarthy as a road favorite against AFC opponents, while going 2-6 ATS since December 2011 on the highway off a home victory. The Ravens have won 10 consecutive home games against NFC foes under John Harbaugh, as the last home interconference defeat came to Carolina in 2006.
Titans at Seahawks (-13 ½, 41) - 4:05 PM EST
Tennessee: 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
Seattle: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Titans ended their three-game homestand with a 26-17 defeat to the Chiefs, while not covering for the first time in three underdog opportunities this season. The Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season after blowing a double-digit lead in a 34-28 setback at Indianapolis as short road favorites.
Previous meeting result: Tennessee knocked off Seattle in the final week of the 2009 season, 17-13, but the Seahawks cashed as six-point home underdogs. Chris Johnson rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns for the Titans in the franchise's first victory at Seattle in the last six tries dating back to 1988.
Betting notes: After putting together a 2-5 ATS record last season as a road underdog, Tennessee has cashed in away 'dog chances at Pittsburgh and Houston this season. The Seahawks are pretty close to money-in-the-bank at CenturyLink Field by covering 11 of the last 12 home contests since 2011, including a 7-1 ATS mark as a favorite.
Jaguars at Broncos (-26 ½, 53) - 4:05 PM EST
Jacksonville: 0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS
Denver: 5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Jaguars continue to be the biggest disaster in the league after falling at St. Louis, 34-20 as 11-point road underdogs. Jacksonville has failed to cover in each of its first five games, while allowing at least 34 points in each of the past three contests. The Broncos came out on top in probably the most entertaining game of the season, a 51-48 shootout victory at Dallas, but the Cowboys grabbed the cover as 7 ½-point home underdogs.
Previous meeting result: Back in 2010, the Jaguars downed the Broncos, 24-17 as three-point home favorites. Since 2004, Jacksonville has taken four of five meetings from Denver, including in each of the last two visits to Sports Authority Field (if that means anything with the current state of the Jags).
Betting notes: This pointspread is the biggest in NFL history, as the Jaguars entered this season with a 5-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog since 2011. However, Jacksonville has failed to cash when receiving at least 10 points in two opportunities this season. Since November 2005, Peyton Manning has compiled a pedestrian 10-10 ATS record in the role of a double-digit favorite.
Saints at Patriots (-2 ½, 50 ½) - 4:25 PM EST
New Orleans: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
New England: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Saints picked up an impressive road victory at Soldier Field by controlling the Bears in a 26-18 triumph. New Orleans was outgained for the first time all season, but the Saints' defense held their fifth straight opponent to 18 points or less. The Patriots couldn't overcome a torrential rain storm in a 13-6 defeat at Cincinnati last Sunday, the first loss for New England this season. New England finished 'under' the total for the fourth time in five games, while dropping to 1-3 ATS as a favorite.
Previous meeting results: New Orleans trounced New England in a Monday night blowout in 2009, a 38-17 rout as one-point home favorites. The Saints' offense racked up 480 yards, but the game finished 'under' the total of 57.
Betting notes: The Patriots are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS the last nine games off a loss, but all four non-covers came as a favorite of at least 9 ½ points. New Orleans has put together a 2-5 ATS record on the road when coming off an away contest the week before dating back to 2010, but the Saints are 7-2 SU/ATS the previous nine contests against AFC foes.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at email@example.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
19-5 L3 Sun., 5-0 G-Plays, +2,623
6-2 Sun., 20-5 Streak, 6-1 G-Plays
11-4 L2 Sun., 9-3 G-Plays, +1,515
6-1 L7 G-Plays, 11-2 Win Streak
20-10 L2 Weeks, 36-18 L54 Totals
8-1 L9 G-Plays, 13-7 L20 Picks
7-3 L3 Sundays, 17-8 L7 Sundays
5-1 L3 Sundays, 10-3 L13 Picks
3-0 Last Sunday, 6-2 L8 Picks
21-10 Record Last 5 Sundays
3-1 Sunday, 4-1 L5 G-Plays
6-1 L7 G-Plays, 9-3 L12 Totals
5-1 L6 Picks, 9-4 Over/Unders TY
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