VegasInsider.com
VI Mobile Scores and Betting OddsVI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds Be Social
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto
Horses
Soccer
Boxing/MMA
More
Betting Tools

 
Total Talk - Week 9
Week 8 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-5 last weekend and is now 16-10-1 the last two weeks. Last week definitely had some “Bad Beats” for total bettors.

Starting with the Washington-Denver matchup, the total closed at 58 points. The game was knotted 7-7 at halftime before the Broncos outscored the Redskins 38-14 in the final 30 minutes.

Another rough beat was the Dallas-Detroit game. The total closed at 51 ½ points. The Cowboys led 13-7 entering the fourth quarter before the Lions outscored Dallas 24-17 in the final 15 minutes.

Kansas City has been a great ‘under’ team all season and they almost cashed another ticket last week but a late field goal by the Chiefs helped them beat the Browns 23-17, which helped go ‘over’ the closing number of 40.

Even though Miami and New England had 20 combined points at halftime, the Patriots outscored Dolphins 24-0 in the second-half and the Dolphins missed a field goal and had one blocked as the Patriots held on for a 27-17 victory. The total closed at 46.

On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 64-53-2.

Line Moves

The early line moves went 3-3 in Week 8. On the season, the lines moves are 24-16-1 (60%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Atlanta at Carolina: Line opened 41 ½ and jumped to 45 ½
Minnesota at Dallas: Line opened 47 and jumped to 49 ½  
Kansas City at Buffalo: Line opened 42 ½ and dropped to 40
Baltimore at Cleveland: Line opened 40 and jumped to 41 ½
Chicago at Green Bay: Line opened 48 ½ and jumped to 50 ½

Non-Conference Overs

Bettors following this column weekly are well aware of the NFC-AFC ’over’ trend this season. For the newbies, make a note that the ‘over’ is 27-11 (71%) in non-conference games this year, which included a 3-0 effort in Week 8 albeit with a few lucky breaks. On Sunday, we have four matchups pending.

New Orleans at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at St. Louis
San Diego at Washington
Philadelphia at Oakland

Divisional Angles

Last week, we touched on the vice versa angle that I sometimes use in divisional matchups and it cashed again with the Eagles and Giants going ‘under’ the number after the first meeting was a very high-scoring affair. Again, it’s not the end-all when it comes to winning totals but it’s something you should note and it fits again this week.

Advertisement
Atlanta at Carolina:
The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and bettors have seen this pair combine for 50, 58, 54 and 48 points during this span. The oddsmakers made a mistake with their opener (41 ½) and the sharps jumped on it quickly, pushing the number up three points. The Falcons are beat up, especially on offense and they’ll be facing a Panthers’ defense (13.7 PPG) that is very sound. However, Carolina should be able to exploit an Atlanta defense (26.3 PPG) that has been able to make plays all season.

Baltimore at Cleveland: If you lean to the vice versa angle mentioned above, this is the matchup to watch in Week 9. The Ravens defeated the Browns 14-6 in Week 2 and the closing total (43 ½) was never threatened. Since we had a very low-scoring game, you would expect a better effort offensively from both clubs. Including this result, the ‘under’ is on a 6-0 run in this series but it still makes me wonder why this week’s line has already been steamed up and not down. If you’re looking for a better reason to go ‘over’ then it’s hard to ignore what head coach John Harbaugh has done off a bye. The Ravens are 5-0 in regular season games with rest under Harbaugh and they’ve scored 28, 30, 26, 29 and 23 points in those games.

Indianapolis at Houston: (See Below)

Chicago at Green Bay: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Finally, the ‘under’ cashed this past Thursday in the Miami-Cincinnati matchup and bettors taking ‘over’ 42 ½ were upset, especially when the game went to overtime tied at 20-20. Outside of the game ending in a tie, the least likely outcome would’ve been a team winning by two points and that’s what happened as the Dolphins won 22-20 with a safety. While you have a right to be angry, the ‘under’ was the right side and if Bengals QB Andy Dalton doesn’t suck it up, the ‘over’ never has a chance. Including this result, the ‘over’ is 16-11 in primetime games this week.

SNF - Indianapolis at Houston: This matchup was known for high-scoring affairs when Peyton Manning was under center for the Colts. Since his departure to injury and the Broncos, the last four meetings in this series has gone ‘under’ the number and early signs point to another tight battle this week. The Texans will be starting an inexperienced quarterback in Case Keenum, who will be facing an underrated Colts defense (18.7 PPG). Most would believe that both teams will be prepared off the bye week, which hasn’t been the case for Houston under head coach Gary Kubiak. The Texans are 3-4 with rest under him and for total purposes, the ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in those games. Also, it will be interesting to see how Colts QB Andrew Luck does with the passing game with WR Reggie Wayne (knee) done for the season.

MNF - Chicago at Green Bay: I’m a little surprised this line has been bumped up but when you look at the numbers for this week’s matchup, it makes sense. The Bears are mess defensively (29.4 PPG, 391 YPG) right now and their nine sacks is the lowest in the league. If that unit can’t pressure Green Bay’s offense, which is ranked third in points (30.3 PPG) and second in yards (438.9 YPG), the game is over. If you’re going to lean the other way, you can definitely point to head-to-head trends. The ‘under’ has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series. Keep in mind that the Bears’ Josh McCown is taking place for the Jay Cutler (groin) at QB.

Fearless Predictions

If you bet totals in any sport, you better accept the fact that bad beats occur all the time and much more than side wagers. Despite being on the right side of two plays last week, we got squeezed. While I lost, somebody won and if you did, congratulations! On the season, the deficit is sitting just under a nickel ($480) through seven weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tennessee-St. Louis 39 ½
Best Under: San Diego-Washington 51 ½
Best Team Total: Under San Diego 26 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 30 ½ Tennessee-St. Louis
Over 34 ½ Pittsburgh-New England
Under 60 ½ San Diego-Washington

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
 

  
HEADLINES
Roberts: Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
Rogers: Pick Six - Week 15
David: Total Talk - Week 15
News: SuperContest Picks - Week 15
Akins: Gridiron Angles - Week 15
Roberts: SNF - Cowboys at Raiders
Marshall: Tech Trends - Week 15
BetDSI: Sunday Night Best Bet
Lions beat Bears, stay in playoff picture
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
NFL Hot Streaks
2-0 Sat., 13-3 Picks, +2,085 TY
17-3 L20 G-Plays, 6-2 L8 Totals
9-1 L10 Guarantees, 7-3 Pick Run
5-1 Week 14, 10-3 L13 Picks
+2,063 Overall This Year
9-1 L2 Sundays, 19-9 G-Plays TY
6-2 Sunday, +1,343 Net Profits TY
6-0 Last 6 Guaranteed Run
7-2 G-Plays, 16-7 L10 Sun, 66% TY
11-2 L2 Sundays, 49-24 L12 Sun.
21-8 Last 29 Guaranteed Plays
6-0 G-Play Run, 7-3 L10 Picks
3-0 Record Last Sunday
7-3 Last 10 NFL Selections
5-2 Week 14, 10-5 L15 Picks
3-0 Picks Last Sunday
2-0 Sat., 3-1 G-Plays, 6-3 Totals
5-2 Last 7 Monday Picks
2-0 Week 14, 3-0 L3 G-Plays
8-4 Record L2 Sundays
3-1 NFL Picks Saturday
2-0 Sat., 3-0 G-Plays, 5-1 Totals
NFL Pro Football Expert Sports Picks - Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
2017 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Pat Hawkins + 2085
Gary Bart + 2063
Vince Akins + 1343
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Andy Iskoe + 395
Vince Akins + 390
Dave Cokin + 300
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Zack Cimini 66 %
Pat Hawkins 61 %
John Fisher 59 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Michael Black + 1396
Paul Bovi + 912
Scott Rickenbach + 792
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Vince Akins + 580
Jim Mack + 365
NeiltheGreek + 306
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
John Fisher + 560
Gary Bart + 555
Bill Marzano + 539
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!
VI Gold Membership