Week 16 Tips
December 21, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
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Saints at Panthers (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST
New Orleans: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS
Carolina: 10-4 SU, 8-5-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Saints put together their second straight poor performance away from the Superdome, falling at St. Louis, 27-16. New Orleans failed to cash as 6 ½-point favorites for their fifth consecutive ATS loss on the road, while allowing at least 26 points for the fourth time in five away contests. The Panthers held off the Jets, 30-20, to pull into a first-place tie in the NFC South with the Saints. Since losing at Seattle in Week 1, Carolina has won six straight home contests, while going 5-0-1 ATS.
Previous meeting result: New Orleans crushed Carolina two weeks ago at the Superdome, 31-13 to easily cash as three-point favorites. Drew Brees shredded the Panthers' defense for four touchdown passes, the fourth home win in the last five matchups with Carolina.
Betting notes: The Saints have finished 'under' the total in five straight games, while scoring 17 points or less in three of their last four contests. Carolina's run of six consecutive 'unders' ended in Sunday's win over New York, as the Panthers' defense has limited all seven opponents at home to 20 points or less.
Colts at Chiefs (-6 ½, 46 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Indianapolis: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS
Kansas City: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS
Last week's results: The Chiefs' offense blew up for the second straight week, dropping 56 points on the Raiders in a 25-point rout as 6 ½-point road favorites. Kansas City has now scored 101 points in the last two games, while putting up at least 28 points in four consecutive contests. The Colts continued their dominance of the weak AFC South with their fifth win in five tries after a 25-3 blowout of the struggling Texans. Indianapolis cashed as six-point favorites, but the Colts have alternated ATS wins and losses the last seven games.
Previous meeting result: Nearly a year to the day, the Colts went into Arrowhead Stadium and knocked off the Chiefs, 20-13 as 4 ½-point road 'chalk.' Jamaal Charles rushed all over the Indianapolis defense for 226 yards, including an 86-yard touchdown scamper, but that was the lone touchdown scored by Kansas City.
Betting notes: The Colts haven't won back-to-back games since early November, while posting a 1-3 SU/ATS road record against teams from outside the AFC South. The Chiefs have easily cashed the 'over' in the last four weeks with their scoring barrage, but Kansas City owns a 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS record against clubs that are currently at .500 or better.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-10, 43) - 4:05 PM EST
Arizona: 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS
Seattle: 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS
Last week's results: The Seahawks bounced back from just their second loss of the season by shutting out the Giants, 23-0. Seattle likely played its final game away from CenturyLink Field until February, as the Seahawks completed a solid 6-2 SU/ATS record on the road. The Cardinals squandered a late 17-point lead at Tennessee last week, but Arizona recovered with a 37-34 victory in overtime. Arizona has won six of seven games, but is still on the outside of the NFC Wild Card race behind Carolina and San Francisco.
Previous meeting result: Prior to this hot stretch for the Cardinals, they were blown out at home by Arizona, 34-22 back in Week 7. The Seahawks cashed as 4 ½-point road favorites, as Russell Wilson tossed three touchdown passes in the victory. Seattle has won each of the last three home meetings with Arizona, while limiting the Cardinals to 20 combined points in those three wins.
Betting notes: Both these teams are putting long ATS winning streaks on the line, as the Seahawks and Cardinals have each cashed in five straight games. Arizona has lost four of five road contests to NFC opponents this season, while dropping five consecutive games to division opponents on the highway. Seattle is riding a 14-game winning streak at home, while covering 11 times in this stretch (three ATS losses as double-digit favorites).
Steelers at Packers (-1 ½, 44) - 4:25 PM EST
Pittsburgh: 6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS
Green Bay: 7-6-1 SU, 6-8 ATS
Last week's results: The Packers' season isn't done yet, as Green Bay overcame a 23-point halftime deficit at Dallas to stun the Cowboys, 37-36 as four-point road underdogs. Matt Flynn threw four touchdown passes in the second half, as the Packers scored their most points in a game since a Week 8 victory at Minnesota. The Steelers ended a two-game skid by jumping on the Bengals early in a 30-20 home division triumph last Sunday night. Pittsburgh grabbed a 21-0 lead after one quarter and never looked back as the Steelers have won four of their last five games at Heinz Field.
Previous meeting result: The Packers won Super Bowl XLV over the Steelers in February 2011 with a 31-25 victory as three-point favorites. Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead early, but the Steelers cut the deficit to three points in the fourth quarter. A late Packers' field goal guaranteed a cover for Green Bay backers, capping off a Super Bowl title as a Wild Card team.
Betting notes: After starting the season failing to cover four of their first five games away from Heinz Field, the Steelers have cashed two straight road games at Cleveland and Baltimore as short 'dogs. The comeback by Green Bay last Sunday snapped a six-game ATS skid for the Packers, while the Packers have won and covered two of three contests this season against AFC North opponents.
Patriots at Ravens (-2, 45) - 4:25 PM EST
New England: 10-4 SU, 6-8 ATS
Baltimore: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS
Last week's results: The Patriots haven't quite yet clinched the AFC East title after New England fell at Miami, 24-20 to snap a three-game winning streak. New England hasn't covered a game in three tries, while dropping three of its past four away from Gillette Stadium. The Ravens didn't reach the end zone on Monday night, but six field goals from kicker Justin Tucker, including a 61-yarder in the final minute pushed Baltimore past Detroit, 18-16 as 4 ½-point road underdogs.
Previous meeting result: Baltimore's final hurdle to winning the AFC Championship last season came in Foxboro, as the Ravens dominated the Patriots, 28-13 as eight-point underdogs. Since 2009, these teams have split six meetings, including three matchups that were decided by three points or less.
Betting notes: The Ravens haven't lost a home game in two months, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in this span, while compiling a 5-2 mark to the 'under' at M&T Bank Stadium. The Patriots have been a fade machine on the highway, putting together a 1-6 ATS record on the road with the lone cover coming at Atlanta in Week 4. The flip-side is New England has won and covered all three games off a loss this season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at email@example.com
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