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Championship Outlook

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Odds provided by the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) SuperBook

Sunday, January 19

AFC Championship – (2) New England at (1) Denver (CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Broncos -6 ½, 55

Denver Home Record: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
New England Road Record: 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Patriots rallied from a 24-0 deficit in Week 12 to defeat the Broncos 34-31 in a SNF matchup. New England closed as a one-point home underdog and the combined 65 points, 41 coming in the second-half, jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 54.  Including this win, the Patriots have won and covered the last four matchups against the Broncos. Quarterback Tom Brady is 10-4 versus Peyton Manning all-time, 2-1 in the playoffs. They’ve met twice in the conference championship, with Brady winning in 2003 and Manning winning in 2006.

AFC Championship Notes

-- Under head coach Bill Belichick, New England has played in eight AFC Championship games, three of them played on the road.

-- The Patriots have gone 6-2 in those contests and that includes a 2-1 record on the road. The ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 mark.

-- Denver hasn’t been to the AFC Championship since the 2005-06 playoffs and it was doubled-up at Pittsburgh, 34-17.

-- Baltimore defeated New England 28-13 in last year’s AFC title game on the road. Prior to that outcome, the home team has won the six previous conference championships.

NFC Championship – (5) San Francisco at (1) Seattle (FOX, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Seahawks -3 ½, 41 ½
Seattle Home Record: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
San Francisco Road Record: 8-2 SU, 7-1-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: San Francisco and Seattle have split their last four meetings with the home team winning each contest. During this span, the Seahawks have covered all four games, winning by 29 and 26 points at home while only losing by a combined nine points in the road setbacks. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series.

NFC Championship Notes

-- The 49ers will be playing in their straight NFC Championship, producing a 1-1 record the last two years. San Francisco defeated Atlanta 28-24 on the road in last year’s title game but lost to the N.Y. Giants in overtime (20-17) in the 2011-12 playoffs.

-- The Seahawks have only played in the NFC Championship once and they captured a 34-14 victory at home over Carolina in the 2005-06 title game.

-- The road team has won the last three NFC Championships.

-- The last six NFC title games have been decided by seven points or less.

Future Chalk

In early September, the LVH SuperBook had the Super Bowl future odds on this year’s remaining teams:

Denver 4/1
Seattle 5/1
San Francisco 7/1
New England 10/1

The only other teams to be in that were close to the above contenders were Green Bay (8/1) and Houston (10/1).

  
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