Super Bowl Breakdown
January 21, 2014
By Mike Rose
We are finally left with just two teams, the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. Today at VegasInsider.com, we're breaking down the biggest game of the season with some great trends to remember for the Super Bowl.
#1 Denver Broncos vs. #1 Seattle Seahawks
Line: Denver -2.5 (48)
We have already seen this line move up 2.5-points, as it opened at a pick 'em and immediately moved to Denver by 2.5. These two teams haven't played against each other in nearly four full years, though you can bet with the game on the schedule next season between these two, it will be one of the most highly anticipated games of the regular season.
The Broncos might feel like the superior team, but they clearly had the inferior road to get into the Super Bowl. They probably didn't beat a single truly good team along the way, as they might have been the only good club in the entire AFC this year. Clearly, the New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers didn't provide all that much of a challenge in the second season, though this seems to be a much greater test.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, came out of the better of the two conferences and the best division within that conference for good measure. They beat the San Francisco 49ers in a gritty NFC Championship Game to get here and took down the New Orleans Saints in a game that was always under control but never quite settled until the final gun.
QB Peyton Manning is going to have all eyes on him in this one, knowing that he is one of the biggest names the sport has to offer. He threw for 400 yards in the conference title game, the most in a Super Bowl semifinal by a quarterback in league history. Manning though, is only 1-1 SU and ATS in his two trips to the Super Bowl in the past, beating the Chicago Bears and losing to the New Orleans Saints.
The question we have is whether or not these Seahawks, who have virtually no Super Bowl experience, can live up to the biggest game of the year. They certainly don't have a lack of confidence, but they do have a lack of trends on their side in this one.
Sure, Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with winning records, but Denver has covered eight of its last 11 games overall. The Seahawks have covered the closing number in six of their L/10 playoff tussles, while the Broncos have been a money burner in the second season having beaten the oddsmakers just three of the L/10 times.
Keep an eye on the 'under' in this one. Not only have all four of these playoff games between these two teams failed to reach the 'total', but Seattle has played seven straight games 'under' the number. The Broncos have gone 'over' in 13 of their last 16 games played on field turf, but they have played five of their last seven to the 'under'.
The 'over' though, is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series, though that dates all the way back to when these two teams shared the AFC West with one another.
14-3 L2 Sun., 9-2 G-Plays, +2,343
14-3 Streak, 5-1 G-Plays, 8-2 Totals
8-0 L8 G-Plays, 12-6 L18 Picks
8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
7-0 L2 Sundays, 17-5 L6 Sundays
10-3 Sun., 28-12 Run, 6-0 Totals
8 Wins in a Row, 5-1 L6 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,269 TY
11-4 Week 6, 30-13 L43 Totals
4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-7 L19 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
4-1 Sun., 13-7 L20, 5-2 G-Plays
5-1 L6 G-Plays, 8-2 L10 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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