SBXLVIII Betting Trends
January 26, 2014
By Marc Lawrence
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Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's Super Bowl Selection on VegasInisder.com this weekend!
SB XLVIII – A Charlie Brown Super Bowl
To better visualize the winner of Super Bowl XLVIII we look to Winston Churchill, who once said, “The farther back you can look the farther forward you are likely to see.”
In the case of Super Bowls past, we can look back as far as 1967. Coupled with the power of our way-back machine – aka our database – let’s break down what appears to be a very evenly matched Super Bowl game between Denver and Seattle at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Here is our list of checks and balances for SB XLVIII.
Not only is SB XLVIII the first Super Bowl in 20 years to pair No. 1 seeds from each conference, both teams bring identical 15-3 records into the fray.
Looking deeper, each team squared off against five common opponents (both faced the AFC South) this season, both going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games with Denver going 5-0 ITS (In The Stats) for a net of +748 yards. Seattle was 4-1 ITS for net of +428 yards,
In games versus fellow playoff teams this season, the Broncos went 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 ITS for a net of +621 yards. The Seahawks were 4-2 SU and ATS, 3-2-1 ITS, for a net of +244 yards.
The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.
Denver has won the last 10 games in a row in this series in games in which they’ve owned a win percentage of .800 or greater.
Seattle is 1-19 SU in its last twenty games versus AFC West opponents who sport a win percentage of .800 or greater.
Seattle’s defense is ranked No.1 overall, surrendering 284 YPG while allowing a league low 15 PPG. Denver’s offense is ranked No. 1 overall, gaining 454 YPG, scoring a league best 36 PPG.
This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense 3 of the 4 previous meetings. In addition teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls.
However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.
Teams arriving to the Super Bowl off three consecutive home games (Seattle) are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 2000, including 0-5 SU and ATS off a win of 6 or less points
Super Bowl teams off four consecutive home games (Seattle) are 0-3 SU and ATS since 2000, losing all three times SU as a favorite. The Seahawks last game away from Seattle was 49 days ago (December 15).
Super bowl favorites of 5 or less points in ‘double rest’ affairs - week of rest first playoff game and week of rest before the Super Bowl – are 1-7 both SU and ATS (Broncos).
To no one’s surprise, both quarterbacks bring terrific QB Ratings in to the contest. Denver’s Peyton Manning finished the regular season as the league’s top-ranked signal caller at 115.1 on 55 TDs and 10 INTs. Seattle’s Russell Wilson owned a 101.2 QB Rating, with 26 TDs and 9 INTs.
The postseason’s QB Ratings show Manning at 107.0, while Wilson’s numbers have further regressed during the playoffs down to 89.1.
Manning is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career versus Seattle, including 2-0 ATS as a favorite. He is also 28-7 SU and 22-12-1 ATS with the Broncos.
After winning SB XLI with the Colts in 2007, Manning has completed 248 of 366 passes for 18 TDs and 7 INTS in a total of nine postseason efforts since.
Wilson is 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS as a starting QB with the Seahawks, including 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS as a dog.
Wilson has tossed for less than 200 yards in over half of his starts, 19 to be exact including 9 this season (including each of his last 6 games).
FYI: the Manning-led Broncos are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in game in which they have managed to hold opponents to 200 or less passing yards in a game.
On The Sidelines
Denver’s John Fox brings an 8-5 SU and ATS NFL postseason career mark into this game, dropping a 32-29 decision as a 7-point dog to New England in SB XXVII.
Fox is just 11-22 SU and 12-20-1 ATS in his NFL career in games versus .769 or greater opposition.
Seattle’s Pete Carroll is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in his NFL playoff career.
The good news is Carroll is 36-24-4 ATS as an underdog in the NFL. The bad news is he is 1-5 SU/ATS as a dog of 2 or less points, and 0-11 SU as an underdog in games in which his team owns a win percentage of .647 or more.
Super Bowl History
-- The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.
-- The last NFC No. 1 seed (Seahawks), other than New Orleans in 2009, to win a Super Bowl was St. Louis in 2000.
-- 17 of the last 20 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or better.
-- Favorites of 3 or less points (Broncos) are 7-4 SU and ATS, and 5-6 to the ‘Under’.
-- Teams who won their last two playoff games against foes that were off a playoff road win (Seahawks) are 4-8 SU/ATS, including 1-5 SU/ATS since 2000.
-- Teams who score 20 or fewer points in the game are 6-30 SU and 9-33 ATS. Teams who score 21 or more points in the game are 40-12 SU and 36-14-2 ATS.
-- The SU winner of a Super Bowl game is 39-6-2 ATS all-time.
Ups And Downs
The oddsmakers have done their best job posting Over/Under totals on Super Bowl games. That’s confirmed by the fact that there have been 24 ‘Overs' and 22 ‘Unders’ in this history of the big game – with no total available in the inaugural game.
After the Giants and Patriots played to 17-14 ‘Under’ in 2008, each of the last five Super Bowl totals results have alternated, going: O-U-O-U-O since.
The big story in the world of Over/Under total in the NFL this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the ‘Over’.
Despite the success of this betting trend this season, there has not been a major move to the ‘Over’ in this year’s Super Bowl, due largely to the fact the game is being played outdoors in New Jersey.
Cold temperatures, snow and wind will likely be the determining factor as to which direction the opening total of 47.5 settles.
Edge: The weatherman.
As Charlie Brown would say, “That’s my 5 cents.” Enjoy the game!
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