Trends To Watch - October
October 1, 2017
By Marc Lawrence
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Courtesy of the 2017 PLAYBOOK magazine and the well-oiled machine (aka our sports database), here are the best and worst situational roles for NFL teams during the month of October.
Good: If there is one place you don't want to play in October, it is Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 36-16 ATS and Jacksonville (10/8) and Cincinnati (10/22) are the next two potential victims.
Keep an eye on (Good): As bad as Cleveland has been recently, they have been a solid wager at home with a 19-12 ATS record. The Browns will have three chances to improve that mark facing Cincinnati (10/1), the New York Jets (10/8) and Tennessee (10/22).
Keep an eye on (Bad): In the southern part of Ohio, the Bengals are the opposite of their rivals from north at 19-29 ATS at home and they will have Buffalo (10/8) and Indianapolis (10/29) in the Queen City.
Jacksonville has just one home contest this month and that is against the L.A. Rams on Oct. 15th, which might be a good thing with their desultory 14-24 spread record.
As good as Seattle has played for years, they are only 17-27 ATS at home this month and have matchups on the first and last Sunday's against the Colts and Houston.
Keep an eye on (Good): The New York Giants have gotten off to a horrible start in 2017 and will be playing catch up the rest of the season. Giants backers can take solace in that they are 30-18 ATS on the road and they will have a pair of tough tests at Tampa Bay (10/1) and at Denver (10/15).
New England plays good football almost anywhere and is 31-19 ATS in the road white's. They will be at Tampa on the first Thursday of the month and 10 days later in New Jersey to take on Gang Green.
Carolina has performed well on the road at 26-17 ATS and will get their chance to show they are truly road warriors with FOUR away contests. (@ New England, @ Detroit, @Chicago and @Tampa Bay in order). Their only home game is wedged in the middle on the 12th.
Atlanta is 30-18 ATS as visitors and this month will be a new experience, with games at New England (10/22) and at the New York Jets a week later.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona only has one true road game this month, which is good for them given its 15-28 spread record, and that will in Philly on the Oct. 8th.
As you read this, you realize the Bengals are a bad bet anywhere in October and are miserable 20-37 ATS away from home. The situation is made worse by playing Cleveland and Pittsburgh, both as you can see above are terrific at home this month.
The Seahawks are another squad that is as dreary as the weather in Seattle in October and besides ATS home woes, they are 21-36 ATS as visitors. Two trips for the Hawks, one to the Rams (10/8) and the other at the Giants (10/22)
Good: Did not see this coming! Cleveland is 11-5 ATS in this role and in all likelihood will be handing out points to the Jets at home on the 8th.
Bad: With Cincy a lousy wager home and away, it would stand to reason they would not be good bet as favorites and that is true with a nauseating 12-25 ATS mark. They will have three shots at bettering that record versus the Browns (10/1), Bills (10/8) and Colts (10/29).
With the Jaguars 10-20 ATS as chalk, we will find out how much they are improved this season. They will be giving points at the Jets on the 1st and two weeks later when they host the Rams. Because we don't know Andrew Luck's status, the Oct. 22nd line is up in the air.
Seattle is abysmal 15-30 ATS giving points in Rocktober and is expected to be favored in all four contests.
Keep an eye on (Bad): The Buccaneers have been shaky 16-27 ATS favorites and will assume that role versus the G-Men (10/1), possibly at Buffalo (10/22) and conceivably against Carolina the following week.
Good: The Steelers are sensational 23-10 ATS as underdogs and will be at Kansas City on the third Sunday of the month, with contest in Detroit iffy two weeks later.
Keep an eye on (Good): Big Blue (the Giants) is nicely profitable 23-14 ATS when receiving points and will at Tampa Bay (10/1), at Denver (10/15) and maybe at home depending on how they are playing seven days later against Seattle.
Denver shows up in this space at 21-14 ATS as a pooch and will be listed as such one day before Halloween at K.C. on a Monday. There is slight possibility they could also be dogs at the Carson Chargers. We will have to wait and see.
The Panthers as mentioned have covered many spreads on the road and that correlates to 29-16 ATS record as underdogs. They will be dogs at Gillette Stadium to start the month, a week later in the Motor City and maybe at Tampa on the 29th.
Chicago is a somewhat surprising 30-19 ATS receiving points and are thought to in that same position four times this month.
Bad: It's bad enough that San Francisco is 13-27 ATS as dogs, but with four away encounters and home game with Dallas, a death knell looms.
Keep an eye on (Good): The Bears are 24-13 ATS in the NFC Central and have Minnesota in town on the 9th for a Gruden Grinder.
Another bad club with division success is the Jets from the cement jungle at 27-14 ATS. They will have the Pats at home on the 15th and go for the sweep at Miami the following week.
The Chiefs have thrived in the division 21-14 ATS and are at Oakland on Thursday the 19th and 11 days afterwards, facing the Broncos.
Bad: As much as we are tired talking about how awful Cincinnati is in October, the facts don't lie with a 13-29 record in the AFC North. As stated, they have two battles with Cleveland and Pittsburgh on the road.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Indianapolis is mediocre 16-24 ATS versus the AFC South and will face two foes. The Colts have a Monday nighter at Tennessee (10/16) and six days later have Jacksonville at home.
Finally, one last mention of the Seahawks, who are 17-27 ATS in the NFC West, which stands to reason given their other sickly spread numbers. They will take on the Rams in Tinsel Town on the 8th.
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3-0 L2 Sundays, 7-0 G-Play Run
8-1 L9, 12-3 L15 NFL Streak
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7-3 Playoff Picks, 7-3 L10 G-Plays
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