Betting Recap - Week 13
December 5, 2017
By Daniel Dobish
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Against the Spread
Against the Spread
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Jets (+4, ML +170) vs. Chiefs, 38-31
Seahawks (+4, ML +170) vs. Eagles, 24-10
49ers (+2.5, ML +125) at Bears, 15-14
Vikings (+2, ML +115) at Falcons, 14-9
The largest favorite to cover
Jaguars (-10) vs. Colts, 30-10
Patriots (-8) at Bills, 23-3
Rams (-7) at Cardinals, 32-16
Titans (-7) vs. Texans, 24-13
-- The Minnesota Vikings passed a major test on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, winning 14-9 in a defensive battle. The Purple People Eaters are on a roll, winning eight straight while covering seven in a row. Might we see the first-ever team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium? We'll find out if the Vikings can do it in back-to-back road games with a trip to meet the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte in Week 14. The Panthers had their four-game cover streak halted with a 31-21 loss against the New Orleans Saints.
-- The San Francisco 49ers turned to QB Jimmy Garoppolo to start in Week 13 against the Chicago Bears, and his first start with the team was a success. Suddenly the Niners have won twice in the past three weeks, while the 'under' improved to 4-1 over their past five. The offense still needs work, as they have scored 15 or fewer points in five of the past six outings. But the Niners look like an NFL team again with Garoppolo at the helm. And, really, they haven't been that bad on the road this season, posting a respectable 4-2 ATS mark. They're back on the road next Sunday against the turnover-prone Houston Texans.
-- Vegas was expecting a shootout in Western New York in the New England-Buffalo (49) battle, but it never came into fruition. 'Over' bettors had a sinking feeling when the teams couldn't muster any touchdowns in the first half, and that bad feeling was compounded when QB Tyrod Taylor (knee) was carted off to the locker room. The Patriots picked up the pace in the third quarter with 14 points, but the teams combined for a scoreless fourth quarter and barely made it halfway to the over. The second-highest total was in the Minnesota-Atlanta (48.5) game, and that also was never threatened with 23 total points. It isn't often Vegas is way off, but these two battles weren't even close to the number.
-- The three lowest totals on the board from Sunday -- Indianapolis-Jacksonville (41), Denver-Miami (41) and San Francisco-Chicago (42) -- went 2-1 to the 'under'. The Broncos-Dolphins game featured two safeties, a rarity, to add to the scoring total. The Colts-Jaguars game just barely made it 'under', with a total of 40 points. Oddly enough, this was the first weekend all season where the NFL slate did not have at least one matchup with a total in the 30's.
-- The Chargers defense continues to impress, allowing just 10 points to the winless Browns. They have yielded just 13.9 PPG over their past seven games, which is a major reason they find themselves tied atop the AFC West despite an 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS start. The 'under' is an impressive 6-1 over the past seven for the Bolts, including 4-0 in their past four road games. They are home in Week 14 against the Redskins before they hit the road to play the Chiefs in Week 15 and Jets in Week 16.
-- The 'Over/under' finished 1-1-1 in the three primetime games during Week 13, and the 'over' is 24-16-1 (60.0%) through the first 41 primetime games of the 2017 season after Monday's Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals push. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
-- Bills QB Tyrod Taylor (knee) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots due to a knee injury, but he reportedly told sources after the game that the injury wasn't as serious and he'll have further tests. Taylor sounds optimistic about a return sooner rather than later.
-- Lions QB Matthew Stafford (hand) suffered a hand injury late in the loss at Baltimore, and he was taken to the locker room with a towel wrapped around his hand. X-rays were negative.
-- Eagles TE Zach Ertz (concussion) left for the locker room due to the league's mandated NFL concussion protocol in the the third quarter and he did not return.
-- The Falcons (-2, 54) host the Saints in Thursday's game in a key NFC South battle. Atlanta swept the two high-scoring battles last season, averaging 41.5 PPG while allowing 32.0 PPG. The last time these teams met on a Thursday was back on Nov. 29, 2012, a 23-13 victory by the Falcons as Atlanta covered at the Georgia Dome in a game which easily hit the 'under'. Five of the past seven meetings in Atlanta have resulted in 'under' results, although this will be the first meeting at the brand, spanking new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. And hey, Atlanta fans...good news...Chick-Fil-A will be open for this game!
-- First place will be on the line when the Raiders and Chiefs do battle at Arrowhead. The Chiefs will be looking to avenge a heartbreaking 31-30 loss in the Black Hole back in Week 7. It was a rare Raiders win, as the Chiefs had won the five previous meetings while going 4-2 ATS. The Chiefs have won four straight home meetings against the Raiders, while going 3-1 ATS in the meetings. The 'under' is also an impressive 8-1 in the past nine meetings in Kansas City.
-- The Ravens and Steelers will lock horns at the confluence, and Pittsburgh looks for three straight wins in the series for the first time since sweeping the two regular-season matchups and the 2009 AFC Championship Game during the 2008-09 season. The 'under' has hit in four of the past five meetings in this series, and Baltimore enters the game 4-1-1 ATS over the past six meetings. The Steelers have won just three times in the past eight meetings at Heinz Field, including a playoff game in 2015. In fact, Pittsburgh is just 5-10 SU and 5-8-2 ATS over the past 15 meetings overall in the regular season and playoffs.
7-0 L7, 11-2 L13 NFL Streak
4-0 LW, 13-5 Totals, 25-11 L7 Sun.
7-2 Run, 24-11 L7 Sundays
6-0 Guarantees, 4-1 Playoffs
9-3 Playoffs, 5-1 L6 Totals
7-1 Playoff Picks, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-0 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 Playoffs
12-3 L15 G-Plays, 12-4 L16 Picks
2-0 Sunday, 6-0 G-Play Run
4-0 L2 Sundays, 28-10 G-Play Run
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-1 L7 Totals
9-1 L5 Sun, 14-5 Run, 21-5 GPlays
9-4 L13 G-Plays, +1,845 Picks TY
5-0 Totals, 11-3 G-Plays, 9-4 Picks
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 64% +1,105 TY
2-0 Sunday, 6-1 L7 Guarantees
3-1 L2 Sat, 5-2 L3 Sun, 8-1 G-Plays
6-0 L6 Guarantees, 10-4 L14 Picks
2-0 Saturday, 11-4 L15 G-Plays
10-5, +756 Postseason Record
2-0 Sun, 3-1 L2 Sat, 12-3 G-Plays
4-2 LW, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
4-1 L2 Sundays, 5-0 L5 G-Plays
7-1 L8 G-Plays, 23-13 L36 Picks
6-2 L8 Picks, 12-4 L16 Totals
4-1 L5 Picks, 4-0 L4 Totals
3-0 Guarantees, 3-1 Last Week
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