Best Bets - Week 14 Totals
December 7, 2017
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NFL Week 14 Best Bets – Totals
We've reached the final month of the NFL regular season and it should be an exciting stretch drive. Chances are we see quite a few meaningful games throughout the league in Week 17, but for now it's about starting off on the right note in December.
This is the time of year when we get plenty of division rematches each week and those “must win” scenarios as well.
This week's totals Best Bets touch on a little bit of both so let's get right to the plays.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #1: Oakland/Kansas City Under 48.5
This is one of four division rematch games in Week 14 as the first meeting between Oakland and Kansas City was a TNF thriller. Oakland ended up winning that game 31-30 thanks to four untimed downs at the end of the game due to penalties. It was a wild loss for the Chiefs to experience and not much has gone right for KC since then.
The Chiefs are 1-4 SU and ATS since that loss, and now find themselves tied with Oakland and L.A for tops in the AFC West. It's been quite a crash, but if there ever is a way to get back on track, a home win against a division rival is usually a good place to start.
For Kansas City to win this game, they'll need to rely on a defense that has been much better at home than on the road this year. Last week in New York this Chiefs unit gave up 38 points to the Jets, but in five home games this season they've yet to allow more then 20 points against. That 18.8 allowed per home game average matches up quite well with an Oakland attack that scores 17.4 per road game this year. Add in the fact that this game is basically for 1st place in the division, eight of the last nine meetings in KC have stayed under, and Oakland on a 1-6 O/U run in division games, this might be a race to 20.
Finally we can't forget about the division rematch flip flop angle in play here after the first meeting finished with 61 points, especially when VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show more than 90% of the early action has bettors expecting another shootout between these two clubs. I am definitely not of that mindset as both offenses appear to be shells of their early-season selves, and both defenses will be looking for redemption after that first meeting. This number could even continue to rise as Sunday nears, but if it does I'll just be adding another unit or two on an 'under' I already like at the current number.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #2: Green Bay/Cleveland Over 40.5
Green Bay is one of those clubs in a proverbial “must win” spot as they try to remain within reach of a playoff spot as QB Aaron Rodgers potential return looms. The Packers chances of getting that W against a team that's a combined 1-27 SU the past two years is probably pretty good in the eyes of many, but Green Bay is still fighting for their lives right now with a backup QB that they don't seem to fully trust.
Cleveland just wants to win and avoid the possibility of a winless season. That mindset has been evident in Cleveland's strategy the past few weeks as they are continuously aggressive when the opportunity presents itself, they just haven't been able to get over that final hump. But with a home game against Baltimore and road contests against Chicago and Pittsburgh left, this home game against a banged up Packers team might be the last legitimate shot Cleveland has at winning a game. That tells me that the Browns will continue to be of an aggressive mindset and one way or another, hopefully that turns into points.
Green Bay's offense has started to figure a few things out with Hundley under center as they've put up 23+ in three of their last four games overall. Hundley was brilliant on SNF against Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, and on the road against a much weaker AFC North foe, I wouldn't be shocked to see Hundley have another good day at the office. After all, Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 O/U the last four times they've been on the road against an AFC team.
Cleveland, well is Cleveland, and trusting them to do anything good is tough. But WR Josh Gordon's return to the lineup paid immediate dividends in L.A last week, and now Gordon gets his first opportunity to be back at home. Cleveland home games have been death to 'over' bettors as they are 0-10 O/U in the last 10, but eventually a trend like that turns around, and what better spot to do it in a game featuring backups/rookie QB's when the majority of bettors (65%) are going to the low side once again. I mean, it makes perfect sense for a game to break out with 60-70 points scored when it involves a Cleveland team that you can never really trust right?
Bottom line, this is going to sort of feel like a playoff game for both teams with Green Bay playing to stay in contention and Cleveland trying to avoid 0-16. With that being the case, neither OC will be shy about pulling out all the stops in order to get the W, and with two young QB's in there prone to INT's and mistakes, we have the potential for a lot of short field drives in this one. As long as both sides can turn those opportunities into TD's rather than FG's more often than not (which could be a big if), both sides should finish in the 20's here as this number of 40.5 easily gets eclipsed.
16-2 G-Plays, 6-1 Totals, 13-7 Picks
5-1 Run, 8-0 L8 Guarantees
6-2 L8 Picks, +2,280 Overall TY
9-3 L12 Picks, +1,685 This Season
4-1 Week 14, 9-2 L11 Picks
9-1 L2 Sundays, 18-9 G-Plays TY
6-2 Sunday, +1,449 Net Profits TY
5-0 Last 5 Guaranteed Run
7-2 G-Plays, 16-7 L10 Sun, 65% TY
11-2 L2 Sundays, 49-24 L12 Sun.
3-1 L4 G-Plays, 5-2 L7 Selections
19-7 Last 26 Guaranteed Plays
5-2 L7 Totals, 8-4 L12 Picks
2-0 Week 14, 3-0 L3 G-Plays
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