Betting Recap - Week 17
December 31, 2017
By Daniel Dobish
Be sure to follow VegasInsider.com on Twitter @TwitVI for the latest NFL Football betting updates and trends. Daniel E. Dobish can be followed on Twitter at danieledobish.
Against the Spread
Against the Spread
HAPPY NEW YEAR, EVERYONE!!!
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+8, ML +340) at Ravens, 31-27
Cardinals (+8, ML +310) at Seahawks, 26-24
Buccaneers (+6, ML +250) vs. Saints, 31-24
Giants (+5, ML +190) vs. Redskins, 18-10
The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-7) vs. Raiders, 30-10
Lions (-7) vs. Packers, 35-11
49ers (-6.5) at Rams, 34-13
Colts (-5.5) vs. Texans, 22-13
Finishing Up Strong
-- The San Francisco 49ers were obviously helped out in Week 17 by the fact the Los Angeles Rams were resting their starters with nothing to gain in the playoff seeding process, but Vegas also had the Niners installed as a 6 1/2-point favorite. They produced yet another win, as the legend of QB Jimmy Garoppolo continues to grow. The 49ers won their fifth consecutive game to close out the 2017 campaign, finishing 6-10 after opening 0-9 SU. At the betting window the Niners were a favorite, too, as they ended up going 4-1 ATS over their final five outings to close out 2017. They'll be a team to watch heading into 2018 after free agency and the NFL Draft.
Not Done Yet
-- The Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans secured AFC Wild Card berths with wins in Week 17. The Bills needed the Cincinnati Bengals to take care of the Baltimore Ravens, and they scored a shocking touchdown with less than a minute left for the 31-27 road upset to snap the Bills' 17-year playoff drought. The Titans ended the regular season on a high note, going 5-1 ATS across their final six games. They'll travel to meet the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Wild-Card round next weekend, and they opened 7 1/2-point underdogs. The Bills are underdogs by the same number as they travel to meet the Jacksonville Jaguars next weekend. They closed out their regular season with a 4-2 ATS mark, although they were just 2-4 ATS over their past six road games. The Titans-Chiefs and Bills-Jaguars did not meet in the 2017 regular season.
-- The Chiefs pushed past the Denver Broncos by a 27-24 score, a game which hit the 'over' (37.5) rather easily. But the game was littered with plenty of reserves on both sides of the ball, so there isn't much to glean from this result. In the previous seven games, the Chiefs were using their starters and the 'under' cashed in six of seven outings. That's something to watch heading into their playoff game next week. The Titans hit the 'under' in Week 17, and it cashed in four of their final six outings. The 'under' was also 4-2 in their final six games on the road.
-- The Bills went 'under' in Week 17, and the total went under for a 4-1-1 record in their final six games. On the road, the 'under' was 5-3 overall on the season. The Jaguars had a stout defense this season, but the 'over' still cashed rather frequently. The over was 3-1 in their final four outings, although the 'under' hit in Week 17. The over actually hit in five of their eight home games this season. The total opened at 41 for the Bills-Jaguars game.
-- There were no primetime games in Week 17, so the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games during the 2017 season. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) rolled his ankle in the third quarter of the Week 17 game at Miami and he was unable to return. His status for Wild-Card weekend is uncertain.
-- Chiefs WR De'Anthony Thomas (leg) sustained a fractured tibia on a punt return late in the Week 17 game against the Broncos and he is obviously done for the season.
-- The Titans will travel to meet the Chiefs in the wild card. The Titans are 6-1 ATS over their past seven against teams with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five on a grass surface. However, they're still just 14-38-4 ATS in their past 56 against AFC foes, and 8-20 ATS in their past 28 road games. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five appearances on a Saturday.
-- The Chiefs have covered four in a row, they're 4-0 ATS in their past four vs. AFC teams and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five home games. However, Kansas City is a dismal 1-8 ATS in their past nine playoff games, and 0-5 ATS in their past five playoff games at Arrowhead.
-- The Falcons are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their past 19 vs. NFC opponents, but they're just 2-7 ATS in their past nine playoff games. They're also 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four playoff road outings. They travel to meet the Rams on Saturday night. The 'over' is 5-0 in Atlanta's past five playoff games.
-- The Rams have posted a 6-13-1 ATS mark across their past 20 against NFC foes, while going 4-10-1 ATS in their pat 15 at home. And while it's been a while, the Rams are 1-4 ATS in their past five playoff games.
-- It has been 17 years, but Buffalo is on an 0-4 ATS run in their past four playoff games. The 'over' is 9-4 in Buffalo's past 13 against teams with a winning overall record.
-- The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against AFC opponents, and 4-1 ATS in their past five at home. While it has been a long time, the 'over' is 4-1-1 in Jacksonville's past six playoff home games, but the 'under' is 7-1 in their past eight vs. AFC opponents.
-- The Panthers and Saints meet for the third time this season. Carolina was swept in the regular season by New Orleans, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to NOLA, while going 0-6 ATS in the past six meetings overall. However, the road team is a sparkling 23-10 ATS in the past 33 meetings in this series, with the underdog 6-1 ATS in the past seven. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the past four in New Orleans, and 6-1 in the past seven meetings overall.
7-0 L7, 11-2 L13 NFL Streak
4-0 LW, 13-5 Totals, 25-11 L7 Sun.
7-2 Run, 24-11 L7 Sundays
6-0 Guarantees, 4-1 Playoffs
9-3 Playoffs, 5-1 L6 Totals
7-1 Playoff Picks, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-0 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 Playoffs
12-3 L15 G-Plays, 12-4 L16 Picks
2-0 Sunday, 6-0 G-Play Run
4-0 L2 Sundays, 28-10 G-Play Run
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-1 L7 Totals
9-1 L5 Sun, 14-5 Run, 21-5 GPlays
9-4 L13 G-Plays, +1,845 Picks TY
5-0 Totals, 11-3 G-Plays, 9-4 Picks
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 64% +1,105 TY
2-0 Sunday, 6-1 L7 Guarantees
3-1 L2 Sat, 5-2 L3 Sun, 8-1 G-Plays
6-0 L6 Guarantees, 10-4 L14 Picks
2-0 Saturday, 11-4 L15 G-Plays
10-5, +756 Postseason Record
2-0 Sun, 3-1 L2 Sat, 12-3 G-Plays
4-2 LW, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
4-1 L2 Sundays, 5-0 L5 G-Plays
7-1 L8 G-Plays, 23-13 L36 Picks
6-2 L8 Picks, 12-4 L16 Totals
4-1 L5 Picks, 4-0 L4 Totals
3-0 Guarantees, 3-1 Last Week
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 20%
off Daily Pick packages, SAVE 10%
off a Live Odds subscription, and receive access to up to 1,000
Member Plays each month!