DP Notes - Titans at Patriots
January 10, 2018
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Many will argue that the New England Patriots have effectively been given a bye all the way into the AFC Championship Game. The Tennessee Titans shouldn't theoretically have much of a shot against the best franchise in the NFL over the course of the last decade and a half.
Every dog has his day, though, and Mike Mularkey and the Titans will be hoping that they'll be able to pull off their own rendition of the Music City Miracle in Foxboro.
No Go in Foxboro
The Tennessee Titans have never beaten the Patriots in Foxboro. Neither did the Tennessee Oilers.
You have to go all the way back to the Warren Moon/Tecmo Bowl/"Chuck and Duck" days to find the last time this organization beat the Patriots in New England.
Since the Oilers' 1993 victory in New England, the franchise is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, including getting whipped by an aggregate score of 92-16 over the course of the last two meetings.
The Titans, in fact, haven't had much of any luck against the Tom Brady-led Patriots at all. The Brady Bunch has won each of the last six meetings in this series, going 5-1 ATS in said games.
6th Time's the Charm
With all of the reports of turmoil in the New England locker room, it's notable to go back and look at what this team really has accomplished over the course of the last decade and a half. The Robert Kraft/Bill Belichick/Tom Brady triumvirate is a double-digit favorite in the playoffs for the sixth time. The rest of the NFL in that span only has only had seven such other playoff games where a team has been favored by 10+.
The Patriots have only been beaten in one of those previous five games in which they were double-digit underdogs. That, of course, was the Super Bowl in 2008 that prevented the '07 Patriots from being known as the "Perfect Patriots."
The Pats are just 2-3 ATS in their last five as double-digit chalks in the playoffs, but all three ATS losses came in those '08 playoffs.
A Titanic Spread
The Titans weren't larger than +7 in a single game this season, but they're now facing their second-straight biggest spread of the year. They pulled off the upset at +8.5 against Kansas City, but they're up against a significantly better team and significantly longer odds in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Tennessee was last a double-digit dog on December 20, 2015, a game that happened to be played right here at Gillette Stadium. The Titans were +14.5 that day and were blown out 33-16.
The last time the Titans won as double-digit underdogs was in 2006 at Philadelphia.
A total of 18 teams have been 13.5-point underdogs or greater in NFL playoff history. They're a respectable 8-9-1 ATS but are only 3-15 SU.
Titans vs. Patriots Playoff History
1979 (at New England): Oilers 31, Patriots 14
2004 (at New England): Patriots 17, Titans 14 (Tennessee +6 / Under 34.5)
Titans vs. Patriots Opening NFL Odds
Titans at Patriots (-13.5, 47)
Titans vs. Patriots Current NFL Odds (Updated 1/7)
Titans at Patriots (-13.5, 47)
(Odds courtesy of BookMaker.eu)
5-0 +555 Sunday, 6-1 G-Plays TY
14-7 Sun., 36-16 Oct., 8-2 G-Plays
16-7 L3 Sun., 9-2 L6 Thurs., +1,776
14-5 Win Streak, 15-5 L4 Sundays
5-1 L6 G-Plays, 15-7 L22 Picks
4-0 Sunday, 2-0 L2 Guarantees
3-0 Sunday, 6-1 Record L2 Sundays
4-1 L5, 10-3 Streak, 6-2 G-Plays
12-4 L4 Sundays, 17-6 NFL Streak
6-3 Sunday, 4-0 Totals, 2-0 G-Plays
4-2 Sunday, 10-5 Over/Unders TY
10-2 G-Plays TY, 8-4 L12 Totals
2-0 Sunday, 8-3 Run, 6-2 G-Plays
10-3 Streak, 21-11 (66%) +899 TY
5-1 L6 Guarantees, 9-3 L12 Picks
21-12 L33 Picks, 61% +1,105 TY
3-1 Last Sunday, 13-7 L20 Totals
4-0 L4 Thursdays, 18-8 L26 GPlays
9-4 G-Plays, 8-4 L3 Sun., 19-11 Run
6-2 L8 Picks, 3-1 L4 Guarantees
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 8-4 L2 Sundays
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