Sports gambling is becoming more mainstream. There are many factors as to why, but the widespread acceptance is only going to bring more people who do what I do out into the game. People that understand the lingo, do math and know odds and like sports are going to try their luck. It’s already happening.
Transparency is the key to securing trust, so VegasInsider.com takes great pride in the fact that the pick records of all handicappers are readily available.
I’m going to take it one step further. Since all picks come with analysis that only customers read, I’ve decided to save that text they've already consumed and wagered on in an effort to grade a sampling of picks from the previous day. In addition, and perhaps most important, the plan is to offer a free daily pick to all readers. As February opens, the Dinero Tracker is alive.
My approach has always been heavy on picks – I make predictions on game lines and outcomes for every game on the board, filling up notebooks with my tiny handwriting. Projected scores get weighed against actual lines, which are monitored throughout the day since there are hints provided throughout the day on which way action comes in. I play games with my own brain, do basic math extremely quickly and play scenarios out. For a writer, I sure do a lot with numbers.
People that handicap games are likely nodding, but to most, I probably sound like an obsessed maniac. I grant you that it’s bizarre, but I’ve done this forever. Yes, I can pull numbers out of thin air on Missouri Valley spreads. Yep, I know what all Big Sky teams employ from a strategy standpoint, can do the same for all of Division I and the NFL and do more than dabble in baseball. I watch more college basketball than most coaches over the past two decades and consider anyone willing to stream games from any and all leagues a brother from another mother. I know there are a few out there.
Watching players come up in college makes NBA work easy, especially with condensed games readily available for League Pass subscribers to watch all of the action. I follow beat writers in every major sport on Twitter since they’re the best source of information. This is a lifestyle I’m immersed in and am sharing all this as a one-time introduction to this project I’m excited about launching.
Click on the link to my bio on this page for any other little notes about how or why I do what I do because I’d like to move on.
Predictions are important to me. I make thousands a year. I’ve seen them more clearly as the years have gone on (all documented records and accolades are available on the bio too) and am usually reliable. Every expert has their ups and downs, but I’m confident enough that I put in the work to call myself that. This industry is filled with pseudonyms and story tellers – Antony Dinero is a nod to that – but it’s a skill. It’s similar to playing poker with guys who perennially go deep in the WSOP. The quality is in the consistency. The repetition produces results.
Accompanying the picks I make with the analysis customers get a minimum of one hour before games go off is only two-thirds of the work. The final part is actually watching. I have most games that I put wagers on up and running on either a big screen, smaller screen or an assortment of tablets and smart phones. That’s most important, because watching allows me to see what it is I’m projecting.
It doesn’t matter if I watch or not from a superstition standpoint, because it has no effect. I’m not a jinx. Thinking a win is in your pocket before it ends is. Everyone should know that.
I’ll prove it to you. I’m watching Nevada trying to cover a 7-spot against Fresno State while I write this. It’s a game hovering in the 8-to-12-point range over the last few minutes as the Bulldogs play the foul game.
This pick will hinge on not being wasteful on the line or surrendering second chances that always lead to backdoor covers. They involve not fouling up 11 with 26.2 seconds left, as Nevada just did to the dismay of myself and Eric Musselman. Nevada broke the press, dunked it to reach 100 and then gave up a wild 3-pointer.
After inbounding, the Bulldogs just fouled unnecessarily when the cover should be in. Dear Lord, I’m going to lose. The clock should be at :00. Wolf Pack made both free throws. Strap in. Fresno throws up an airball on a shot that would’ve brought in a disgusting push, Pack rebounds. Game. A skirmish almost breaks out!
We’re safely tucked in with a 102-92 Nevada win, covering the seven.
That could’ve gone the other way. When you watch these games all the time, you always see something that turns your stomach. It’s good for me.
This has been a project I’ve discussed with my editor in the past. Over the past few days – I’m glad this didn’t debut on Wednesday – I’ve toyed with what it will look like. I’m calling it the Dinero Tracker for everyone to see how the money goes. Sometimes, it will be so money you don’t even know it. Other times, it will lose money.
If I inform and entertain, even if it’s at my ridicule, I’ll feel good about it. That said, I’m not one for false modesty. This is always going to be about making money.
Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA