SNF - N.Y. Giants at Dallas
September 14, 2018
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NFL Week 1 SNF Betting Preview
N.Y. Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Last week's SNF season opener had a little bit of everything and could end up being the regular season game of the year. Green Bay fell down big early as they lost Aaron Rodgers to injury, only to storm back in the 2nd half and eek out the Bears 24-23. The 47 points was enough to 'push' my play on the 'under' in that game, so you can count me in the smaller group of bettors that wasn't exactly thrilled with Rodgers' heroics.
NFL fans get another divisional rivalry game for SNF in Week 2, as the Giants and Cowboys renew acquaintances. Both teams may be going in opposite directions if you ask many, with the Giants filled with renewed optimism and hope with a healthy roster and #2 overall pick RB Saquon Barkley in their colors, while Dallas looks a far cry away from the team that ran away with the NFC East two years ago. That's the way the money is already talking this week with the Giants getting the bulk of the support as a road dog, but is that the right side?
YouWager.eu Odds: Dallas (-3); Total set at 42.5
It's not hard to see why the Giants are getting plenty of love again this week, as they are the ones with more 'headline' players in this game and also have the hype train rolling right up their butts. It didn't work out for bettors backing New York a week ago as a home dog, but after watching how atrocious Dallas looked later on last Sunday, the majority of bettors aren't turning down the points with the Giants again. VegasInsider.com currently shows that the Giants are a 60/40 pick ATS, with many more simply bypassing the points and taking New York on the ML.
That support was to be expected given all the hype surrounding the Giants attack this year and the evidence we've seen from Dallas so far (preseason and Week 1) that their offense is really void of substantial weapons outside of Ezekiel Elliott. And while it's tough to deny that Dallas really does lack receiving threats, this is also an offensive unit that was so disjointed in preseason from the simple perspective of playing time (they hardly played together or at all). I'm willing to still give this team a week or two to figure out their passing attack – because they kept who they kept at WR/TE for reasons – and give them the benefit of the doubt.
I say that because, if the prevailing belief among bettors is that Dallas can't do anything in the passing game, it's already a belief in NFL circles, and the Cowboys better be prepared to see a loaded box from their opponent on every offensive snap to slow down Elliott. Doing that is just daring the Cowboys to make plays through the air and eventually some of those will connect.
So with the Giants already spending the bulk of this week in the dreaded 'public underdog' role and the Cowboys stock valued much lower then it probably should be in the eyes of many, I'm not so sure this typical home field advantage line of -3 doesn't have quite a bit of inherent value laced within it.
Dallas swept this season series a year ago and while that doesn't mean really anything here, confidence wise, the Cowboys have to come in with a bit of a boost. They are the ones who are at home here and can look to dictate the tempo with Elliott and the rushing game to wear out that Giants defense and keep Manning, Beckham Jr, and Barkley off the field.
We also can't forget about Dak Prescott's legs in this equation either, especially when the Giants let Blake Bortles rumble for 42 yards on four carries a week ago. Jacksonville didn't rely on the run as heavily as they would have liked with Leonard Fournette going down in that Giants game, but they Jags still rushed for 137 yards in the game, so it's not like the Giants defense is great at stopping the run either.
On the flip side, the Cowboys defense wasn't all that bad in slowing down the Panthers a week ago, they just need to get the help from their offense to win games. The Cowboys will be ready for Beckham and company in the passing game, but they've likely spent time on figuring out how to stop Barkley since the day he was drafted by New York. Carolina only had 293 total offensive yards in that game with the Cowboys, so slowing down the run is nothing new for Dallas, and wouldn't they be just the perfect foil to slightly derail this hype train the Giants have been riding the past few months?
That's why I'm rolling with the Cowboys here as I think there is just too much unwarranted hype surrounding this 2018 Giants squad at the moment. The NFL is famous for that “any given Sunday” tag line and no team is ever as good or as bad as they look in a specific week in this league. Dallas lost plenty of support in the betting market for how they looked a week ago and as I said earlier, I'm not ready to discredit this team completely just yet.
A bad blowout loss at home this week and things will be a different story regarding the Cowboys the rest of the way, but I don't believe it will come to that as Dallas shows up with their A-game across the board and pulls out the victory here.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: Dallas -3
6 Wins in a Row, 7-1 Playoffs
5-0 L2 Sundays, 6-1 L7 G-Plays
11-1 L12 G-Plays, 19-6 L25 Picks
5-0 L2 Sun, 30-12 Run, 10-2 GPlays
8-2 L10, 12-3 Run, 15-4 L5 Sundays
8-1 GPlays, 17-6 L11 Sun, 18-8 Run
11-2 G-Plays, 5-2 L7, 20-9 Streak
10-3 L13, 25-5 Run, 8-1 Totals
14-5 L19 G-Plays, +1,277 Overall
3-1 Conf. Champ., 5-1 L6 Totals
16-7 L23, 27-11 Win Streak
11-4 L15 Guaranteed Plays
7-3 L10, 17-5 Run, 16-6 G-Plays
9-4 L13, 16-6 L22 Selections
7-3 L3 Sundays, 11-4 L15 Totals
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