Vegas Money Moves - Week 5
October 5, 2018
By Micah Roberts
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Bettors have a little bit of cash in their pockets after cashing frequently during NFL Week 4 action and they've already made it known with emphasis who they like in Week 5, and two of their popular plays already cashed on Thursday.
Let's take a look at what the bettors are thinking this week using Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook spreads and totals unless noted otherwise.
Ravens (-3 -120, 45.5) at Browns
William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said, "The Ravens are going to be our second largest risk Sunday. We're going to need the Browns." He's seen 85 percent of the tickets written come on the Ravens as well as 75 percent of the cash. Both teams have gone 3-1 against the spread (ATS), but the entire nation saw the Ravens last Sunday night when they completely dominated Pittsburgh, 26-14. Are the Ravens really that good? Is Pittsburgh really that bad? Whatever the case, right or wrong, this is definitely a case of bettors believing what they saw last.
Jaguars at Chiefs (-3 EV, 49)
This is the most intriguing game of the day with the top-ranked Jaguars defense going against the Chiefs top-scoring offense while having the worst-ranked defense. This is a great example of Pros vs. Joes. William Hill sports books have seen 67 percent of the tickets written on the Chiefs but 67 percent of the cash be on the Jags. The Chiefs are the only perfect team straight-up and against-the-spread at 4-0. The Jags are 3-1 both SU and ATS. "We've taken some sharp money on the Jaguars, but it's a pretty balanced game for us," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal.
Titans (-5.5, 39) at Bills
William Hill books are weighted heavily on the Titans with 83 percent of the tickets and 88 percent of the cash. "The Titans are our third biggest risk so far," said Bogdanovich." The Titans have now won and covered three straight against some decent teams (Eagles, Jaguars, Texans) while the Bills fell back to reality following their huge win at Minnesota with a 22-0 loss at Green Bay.
Giants at Panthers (-6, 43.5)
Someday the Giants offense featuring the best wide-receiver and perhaps the fastest running-back are going to bust out one day, but they still haven't yet. Smaller money says they're not likely to this week at Carolina while larger money is more welcoming to the idea which is probably more about Carolina laying a number higher than -3. "For some reason, they're (sharps) betting the Giants," said Simbal. "However, I think the Giants defense played well against the Saints last week until giving up two late TDs." William Hill has 70 percent of the tickets written on the Panthers but only 53 percent of the cash. The Giants only win this season came when they were getting +6.5 on the road at Houston in Week 3.
Broncos at Jets (PK, 42.5)
Denver has yet to cover a number (0-3-1 ATS) this season and makes it second road trip this season, a place they've not performed their best recently (1-10 ATS). The Jets have lost all three (0-3 ATS) since winning at Detroit on opening weekend. Bettors weighed it out and decided collectively with 73 percent of the tickets written at William Hill on the Broncos as well as 74 percent of the cash. "The public likes the Broncos and we'll need the Jets to help beat some of the mounting parlay risk we're seeing already for Sunday," said Simbal.
Falcons at Steelers (-3.5 EV, 58)
Is this total still too low? The Falcons No. 28 defense against the Steelers No. 30 defense should light up the scoreboard. If the Steelers had trouble covering the Ravens receivers last week, wait until they see the Falcons WR corps. Both teams have gone 'over' in three of their four games. As for the side, William Hill books have 58 percent of the cash on the Falcons and 58 percent of the tickets written on the Steelers.
Packers at Lions (PK, 51)
Detroit won and covered both meetings with Green Bay last season and the past five meetings have gone 'over' the total. The Lions come off a loss following their win against the Patriots. They're 1-3 SU so far, but they've covered the number in their last three. Still, Green Bay is getting most of the support here. William Hill has the Packers getting 85 percent of the tickets written and 73 percent of the cash wagered.
Dolphins at Bengals (-6, 48.5)
This is another Pro's vs. Joe's. The Dolphins have 71 percent of the cash wagered at William Hill, but 72 percent of the tickets written are on the Bengals. Both teams are 3-1 ATS and the Bengals have gone 'over' the total in all four games.
Raiders at Chargers (-5.5, 52.5)
William Hill books have seen 74 percent of the cash on the Raiders and 53 percent of the tickets written as well.
Cardinals at 49ers (-3.5, 40)
"This is the least bet game of the week, and possibly the season," said Simbal. "in fact we have more money bet on the total than the side itself." The big bet on the total was 'under' 41 he said. C.J. Beathard vs. Josh Rosen and the winless Cardinals, who you got?
Vikings at Eagles (-3 -120, 46.5)
The Eagles won 38-7 against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game, but a lot has changed with both teams since then. The spread is also much different. Last season, the Vikings were three-point road favorites. The Vikings defense is ranked No. 21 allowing 381 yards per game, which has helped their rating taking a dive. The Eagles look sluggish and QB Carson Wentz looks rusty and they're only 1-3 ATS. Bettors have made their choice with 74 percent of the cash coming in the Eagles at William Hill, but as for the smaller money from the masses it's split with only 54 percent of the tickets written on the Eagles. For whatever its worth the Eagles have covered seven of the past nine meetings versus Minnesota.
Rams (-7.5 EV, 50) at Seahawks
Last season the Rams went into Seattle and pounded them 42-7, a home beating Pete Carroll's defense has never taken before. Coupled with that game and the Rams putting themselves into an elite category by themselves in the NFL, bettors feel they don't have to think too much here. "We're buried on the Rams," said William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. "It will be our biggest decision by far." His books have 80 percent of the tickets written on the Rams and a whopping 89 percent of the cash as well. The Rams have averaged a 35-16 score this season and have gone 3-0-1 ATS.
The parlay and teaser risk wave has already started to multiply and show for Sunday's games. "The first two legs are already in with every square having the Patriots (-11) and Over (49)," Bogdanovich said of Thursday night's 38-24 Patriots win against the Colts.
"This is going to be the game that decides our day because every live teaser, parlay, and money-line parlay will be waiting for this decision to post and not many are taking the Seahawks," said Simbal. "It could be a rough day for us if the Seahawks don't show up."
Cowboys at Texas (-3.5 EV, 45.5)
William Hill has this as probably their most even split game of the week with the Texans getting 51 percent of the cash and 53 percent of the cash.
Redskins at Saints (-6.5, 53)
"We've taken some sharp money already on the Redskins," said Simbal. William Hill books have 67 percent of its cash taken in on the Redskins and also 52 percent of the tickets written.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.
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