Monday's Best Bet
October 12, 2018
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NFL Week 6 MNF Betting Preview
San Francisco vs Green Bay
I was able to cash in easy fashion with the Saints a week ago, as it was a night that quickly became about Drew Brees and his passing record after the Saints had won the game by halftime. It was a much-needed blowout win for this Saints team that has now won two in a row comfortably and are right back in the conversation as a Super Bowl contender in the NFC this year.
One of the Saints NFC rivals that was at least a part of that conversation at the beginning of the year were the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay is 2-2 SU and still trying to figure out to best manage this hobbled Aaron Rodgers situation, but they host a 1-4 SU San Francisco team on Monday night who wish their starting QB was only “hobbled.” Can the Packers take advantage of the opportunity to seemingly get an easy blowout home MNF win themselves?
YouWager.eu Odds: Green Bay (-10); Total set at 46.5
The leg injury that Aaron Rodgers has been dealing with since Week 1 appears to be one he and the Green Bay organization will deal with until the outcome of the Packers season becomes clearer, but for now it's all about winning as many games as they can and see where the chips rest come late-November or so. Chances are the playoffs will be out of the picture if Green Bay continues to squander opportunities like they did a week ago with four missed kicks, but Rodgers has some culpability in those drives too as he and the Pack continued to stall at the worst times.
That's a sign of just how the lack of practice time with one another between Rodgers and the rest of his banged up offense affects this team on Sundays. It's a big reason why laying those 10 points with Green Bay seems awfully risky, even against 49ers QB with a backup QB starting. Green Bay's offense hasn't scored more than 23 points in three consecutive weeks, and with the defense they've got (allowed 23+ in four of five games), chances are you'll need Rodgers and company to put up more than 23 points if you want to comfortably cash a -10 point spread ticket. That trepidation on taking the Green Bay side – can't look at the 49ers here on the road either – has me looking at this total and seeing it as point or two too high.
From a San Francisco 49ers perspective, the last thing you really want to do as a team is go into Green Bay with a backup QB and a defense that's allowed over 30 points per game the past three weeks (29.2 on the season), and get into a shootout with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers might be hobbled, but he's still picking apart secondaries when he gets time in the pocket. That means that heavy dose of the San Francisco ground game should be expected here, as SF attempts to shorten the game and give themselves their best shot at winning the game. I'm not sure how attainable that end goal is going to be for the 49ers, but considering Green Bay ranks 20th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per attempt (4.2), finding success on the ground shouldn't be that hard for San Francisco in this spot.
For Green Bay, nothing would be better than jumping out to an early 14-17 point lead, put the game on cruise control in the 2nd half and give Rodgers some time off on the sideline to steal any rest time he can get. That's a scenario where we would see plenty of running plays from the Packers once that lead is established, bleeding the clock and getting through the week as healthy as possible. It would end up being similar to the last time they played in front of their home crowd – a 22-0 win over Buffalo – as the Packers defense were able to frustrate a young, inexperienced QB all afternoon long. The same can be done with Beathard here.
The Packers could also end up winning this game in a dogfight, with both defenses holding their own, and the offenses on both sides getting points after long drives. That script of gameplay has a tough time lending itself to anything but the 'under' in terms of the total as I'm not sure how you can trust either offense – especially San Francisco – to score 23+ points. Green Bay's defense has had some quality play sustained for long periods of time at home this year; shutting out Buffalo, for the first three quarters vs Minnesota, and holding Chicago to 6 2nd half points) and could easily show up in that way here too.
In the end, the fact that this game is already hard to make a case for the 'over' for how it potentially plays out, and then seeing a strong majority (85%+ according to VegasInsider.com) is already on the high side of the total yet it hasn't budged, suggests to me that the 'under' is the way to go here.
Green Bay isn't looking to run up the score on anyone right now, and San Francisco is not an offense I want to trust to score more than 14 points anywhere but than at home. Look for the running games to be the story for both sides on the night, as all that handing off keeps that clock running and hopefully this 'under' play cashing.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: Under 46.5
7-0 G-Plays, 13-2 L6 Sun, 14-3 Run
9-0 Record Last 2 Sundays
5-1 Sunday, 11-1 Run, 6-0 Totals
15-5 L5 Sun., 22-11 Picks, +1,679
2-0 Saturday, 9-1 L10 G-Plays
8-4 L2 Sun., 17-7 Run, 5-1 G-Plays
6-2 L2 Sundays, 11-5 L16 G-Plays
5-2 L7 Picks, 11-5 NFL Run
6-3 L2 Sun., 7-3 L10 MNF Picks
3-0 Sun., 10-4 Picks, 6-2 G-Plays
2-0 Saturday, 5-2 L7 G-Plays
4-0 L2 Sundays, 14-5 L19 Picks
2-0 Sun., 3-0 L2 Mon., 12-5 Picks
11-5 L16 Guaranteed Plays
5-2 Sunday, 4-1 L5 Guarantees
3-1 Sun., 12-6 Picks, +1,206 TY
4-1 Sunday, 15-7 L22 Over/Unders
9-4 L6 Sundays, 23-12 L35 Picks
9-3 Record Last 12 Mondays
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