SNF - Cowboys at Eagles
November 9, 2018
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NFL Week 10 SNF Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Fresh off getting blanked in the 2nd half of their disappointing 28-14 home loss on MNF, the Dallas Cowboys head out on the road for another prime time affair, this time against the defending champs.
Not only are the Cowboys on a short week here (after looking awful for the final 30 minutes vs Tennessee), the Philadelphia Eagles come into this game off their bye week. That's about as good as it gets in terms of a situational spot for the Eagles, but will it be enough to help them cover the touchdown they are laying on SNF?
YouWager.eu Odds: Philadelphia (-7); Total set at 43
It's seemingly become an annual tradition in November that questions begin to surface about Jason Garrett's future as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, and that's definitely been the case this week. Owner Jerry Jones gave him that dreaded “vote of confidence” that he won't be making an in-season coaching change earlier in the week, despite talking heads and former Cowboys alumni calling for a major organizational shake-up soon.
There is no question that the Cowboys have a litany of issues to deal with right now as their offense has been putrid all year long. Dallas has only scored more than 20 points twice in eight games, and while they did go out and trade for WR Amari Cooper, you've really got to wonder if QB Dak Prescott was nothing more than a one-hit wonder.
This incarnation of the Cowboys has been built through the offensive line to be a predominantly run-heavy team that plays solid defense, but in today's NFL you need a QB that can produce through the air. Prescott may or may not be that guy long-term for Dallas, but if he and the Cowboys want any shot at a playoff berth this year, they'd better be prepared to take some shots and come away with the win this week.
It won't be easy for Dallas though, as this Eagles team is starting to get their swagger back. Health has been the biggest problem for Philly through eight weeks, but the bye week should've helped with some of that, at least in terms of active guys resting some bumps and bruises. Philly knows the NFC East is up for the taking now with Dallas slumping and Washington dealing with the massive injury concerns.
Eagles fans (and the team) feel like they've not come anywhere close to performing to their potential this year, but even with such a favorable spot for Philly this week, we are still halfway through the season and usually by this point you are what your record says you are.
In any walk of life you can only survive on reputation for so long, and with what the Eagles have done so far in 2018, I'm don't believe they deserve to be laying such a big number. I've already touched on the Cowboys offensive issues this year that everyone readily recognizes, but at 5.3 yards per play for Dallas, it's not like they are well behind Philly's 5.4 yards per play offensively this year. Flip that to the other side of the ball, and Dallas actually comes in with the better number on yards per play allowed (5.3 vs 5.7), so explain to me why the Eagles are TD favorites?
One could also argue that the Cowboys have actually played the harder schedule as well through eight weeks, as the combined record of the Cowboys opponents this year entering the week is 32-33 SU, while the record of Eagles opponents comes in at 29-35 SU. With games against four common opponents (Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the NY Giants), the Eagles and Cowboys have identical 2-2 SU records with both losses for either side coming against the Panthers and Titans. So I ask again, why are the Eagles laying a TD here?
This line is too heavily influenced by the perception of both teams, not the reality for them, and with the Cowboys poor effort on MNF being the freshest memory in most bettor's memory banks right now, it's easy to see why 80% of the money has already come the Eagles way. But you can't count me as part of that majority, as this is still way too many points to give the Cowboys, even in a tough situational spot, with essentially their season, and possibly direction of their organization on the line.
The Cowboys have covered the number in five of their last six trips to Philly (as part of a 10-3 ATS run in this rivalry for road teams overall), and a 4-1 ATS run in division play for Dallas is the final bit of support I need to confidently take the points (and even a bit of the +275 ML price) with Dallas here.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: Dallas +7
4-0 Sun., 7-1 L8, +1,269 TY
4-0 Run, 5-1 L2 Sun, 18-6 Picks
3-0 Week 11, 5-0 L2 Sundays
19-9 Totals, +1,004 Overall TY
5-1 Week 11, 6-0 G-Plays, 11-4 Run
3-0 L3 G-Plays, 6-1 L7 MNF Picks
6-3 L9 Picks, 13-6 Totals TY
5-1 L6 G-Plays, 9-1 L10 Totals
6-3 L2 Sundays, 8-4 L12 Picks
8-4 L5 Sundays, 9-5 G-Plays TY
23-12 L6 Sundays, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-3 L3 Sundays, 8-4 L12 G-Plays
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